Bill Gates: 'By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world'
Source: Associated Press
Philanthropists Bill and Melinda Gates pitched an optimistic future for the world's poor and sick in their annual letter Tuesday, arguing passionately against three myths they say hurt efforts to bring people out of poverty, save lives and improve living conditions.
In their sixth yearly letter, which in the past has focused exclusively on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's annual activities, the co-chairmen of the world's largest charitable foundation seek to dispel false notions that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is wasteful and that saving lives will cause.
"All three reflect a dim view of the future, one that says the world isn't improving but staying poor and sick, and getting overcrowded," Bill Gates writes in the 16-page letter. "We're going to make the opposite case, that the world is getting better, and that in two decades it will be better still."
.......
"I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction," he said. "By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world."
Read more: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24958082/bill-gates-by-2035-there-will-be-almost
Squinch
(50,949 posts)hueymahl
(2,496 posts)Thinking he can help people. Trying cure disease. What a bastard.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)kill us all.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)There is no debate to be had about that. Its pure fact.
Why is it that so many DUers can't vehemently disagree with a person on some issues, but give praise where praise is due?
unblock
(52,227 posts)that is good, no question about it. off topic, but good.
the topic at hand is his thinking that he can cure world-wide poverty, which is more than a little bit of magic thinking.
on that point he's delusional at best.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)unblock
(52,227 posts)i didn't see anything above about this being harmful, although i happen to think all manner of magical thinking and delusion is harmful, or at least potentially harmful.
i don't have a problem with working for getting democrats in office, but anyone who claims that democrats will win all 435 seats in the house and every senate race is an idiot, at least on that point. no problem working toward a solid majority, but touting 100% victory is silly.
similarly, if gates helps make progress toward significantly reducing poverty, that's great, but touting 100% success is silly.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)China's GDP has quadrupled in the last 20 years. Of course China is still a shitty place to live, but its better than it was 20 years ago. So 21 years from now, its hard to say what the situation will be. I wouldn't make a prediction one way or the other. But Gate's seems to think, based on trends in impoverished countries over the last few decades, due in large part to large scale philanthropy and foreign aid from wealthier countries, that in the next few decades, a lot of those countries might no longer be considered poor. He could very well be wrong and I'm leaning towards believing that he probably is wrong. But that doesn't make him an idiot.
unblock
(52,227 posts)had he simply said poverty would be reduced, then i think calling him an idiot would be harsh.
but when public figures make over-the-top statements, that's not a call for calm and measured replies.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)And yea, considering how irrelevant and harmless his statement was, calm and measured replies are completely appropriate.
unblock
(52,227 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Gates has done some charitable stuff, fine...but do we really owe him special deference?
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)There are legitimate things to criticize Bill Gates over, this isn't one of them. Theres no sense in being an asshole towards a guy just because he is rich and wrong on charter schools when he is actually doing something good and feeling optimistic.
You are just responding to me because you feel like bitching at someone who dare defend Bill Gates, but not because you have any valid points to make.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)Poverty (gates used the term 'poor nations') has a relative definition. It CAN be eliminated in the specified time frame.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty#Definitions
Recall, he specified COUNTRIES not individuals. We CAN wipe out the lack of access to fresh water, education, credit, all the markers that define a nation as a 'poor' country, in the specified timeframe. Hard work, but it IS possible.
Gates' view is simply optimistic. Not stupid.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)85 individuals control as much wealth as the bottom half of the world population, spreading that money around would go a long way toward eliminating poverty and we all know it's not going to happen.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)They are not mutually exclusive conditions.
In fact, they can enable each other. Gates is free to leverage his wealth on health programs in poor nations now, that the fucking evangelical purse strings of the US government simply will not allow. Like family planning. They are a bigger obstacle than people like Gates by far.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Billionaires for ending poverty is like satyrs for virginity.
Just because one is a bigger obstacle than the other doesn't mean they're not both obstacles.
Most billionaires are just hoarders, every bit as sick and unable to stop their compulsion as the old lady with eleventy cats and pathways around the stacked-to-the-ceiling junk in her rotting home.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)exhorting other wealthy/1%ers to get their asses in gear on the same issues as well. To spend, or invest or donate in impactful ways, to bring the skills they used in accumulating that wealth to bear on solving problems and ending poverty.
He is not our enemy on this issue.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Ultimately any real progress all comes from the blood, sweat and tears of the little people, there simply aren't enough billionaires to make that much of a difference with their own labor.
Take that money (basically distilled human effort) away from 4 plus billion people and give it to 85 people and of course it makes a world more poor than otherwise.
GoneFishin
(5,217 posts)he is going to produce 10,000 times more value toward both of their survival. Paper pushers have, in essence, bastardized the system to suck the blood from those who actually make things of intrinsic worth. I don't dismiss the possibility that, to a smaller degree, many of us benefit from the system also.
But nobody "earns" a billion dollars themselves. They just managed to divert it away from those who did.
brush
(53,778 posts)Last edited Wed Jan 22, 2014, 09:07 AM - Edit history (1)
but to state that there will be no more poor countries in 21 years (2035) is . . . well, give me some of what he's smoking.
That's like saying multi-national, unregulated capitalism will be gone in 21 years. And why do I say that? Because capitalism cannot exist without seeking out countries where lower and lower wages can be paid to exploited workers.
Ain't gonna happen.
I like Bill Gates' optimism but what he said ain't gonna happen either.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Just a thought.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)The whole thing is about him advocating philanthropy and foreign aid for impoverished countries. That's the story here. You don't even need this explained to you.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)By working on health/family planning/improving child mortality, he's attacking the biggest cause of poverty.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Here, we have our Kochs and Christies and others whose free market economic philosophies lead to cuts in food stamps and lower standards of living for the poorest among us and those whose jobs have been shipped overseas. Further, the optimism does not deal adequately with the problems of a deteriorating environament and increasing scarcity of raw materials, resources.
Sounds good. But I'm skeptical.
China is advancing, but it sells junk-products and is smothering the earth with its pollution. Meanwhile, the Gates of the world are very rich and feel very smug about applying their solutions to the problems of the world. But they do not see the poverty in their own countries and the growing disparity of wealth and impoverishment of many people in their own countries.
Educating women and encouraging birth control have to be encouraged in every country. But even educated women and birth control cannot lift people out of poverty if you have great disparity of wealth. The aggregate numbers look prosperous but the reality is not when you have the great disparity in wealth that you have in the US.
Many children in our country have computers and are linked into the world. But many, many are not, and yet we are viewed as one of the wealthiest countries in the world. We are so sure of ourselves, so confident that we do not look around us to recognize the injustices. The big problem that may spoil this man's dream is the economic injustice. It is very prevalent in China as well as in the US. Europeans are far more egalitarian than we are.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)up too. I see people sinking around me here in the US. I'm happy to hear that the living standards and health of people in the third world are improving. But what I see is that the improvement while not caused by the higher living standards in the third world seems to correlate with the decline here. I think that is because jobs have been shipped to the third world and removed from the US. The profits from development in the third world have accrued almost entirely to the most wealthy people in the world. A small portion is raising the living standards of the middle and upper classes of the third world. And almost none of it goes to those who would have had good-paying factory jobs in the US in earlier times.
So the gains are not all around. And it is wonderful to see people's situations improve. But it is very depressing and frightening to see people's situations deteriorate, to see people gain hope and feel optimistic about life is positive, but when it is done so as to cause others to lose hope and feel pessimistic and angry, it is not just negative, it creates a dangerous situation in the communities of those who are losing out. Many in the US are losing out, and charter schools are not helping things.
Monk06
(7,675 posts)tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)Oh well, better late than never.
Skittles
(153,160 posts)and hasn't for decades
Squinch
(50,949 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)To much money Bill your out of touch
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)warrant46
(2,205 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)doing that. And even then I suspect it would not be enough.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)Gates is doing exactly that. He is committing the vast majority of his wealth to help the poor. He is not going to be destitute by any means, but he is on track to commit virtually all of his substantial wealth to charitable goals during his lifetime. That is a hell of a lot more than you can say for any of the Walton family leaches.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)hueymahl
(2,496 posts)Most of the ultra-rich are greedy scum. I know, I work with some of them on a regular basis. Gates actions show he is not part of that despicable group.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)he spends a lot of time lobbying other wealthy people to start giving back as well. If not in their wills (rather than keeping wealth institutionalized with heirs), actively while still alive.
truebluegreen
(9,033 posts)For example, promoting modern agriculture with all its expensive seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and machinery instead of a sustainable model that poor countries can actually afford without incurring more debt than they have already.
In my view he gets points for attitude but not for substance.
villager
(26,001 posts)Those that survive will doubtless be "divisions" of certain corporations...
Hmm... I must be in a dystopian mood today!
Locrian
(4,522 posts)you just redefine what 'poor' is.
The old joke: How many Microsoft engineers does it take to change a light bulb? Answer: zero. They just define 'darkness' as the new standard.
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)There is data to back up such MILD optimism as what Gates just expressed.
The world IS getting better, in most measures. We have problems, but it's getting better.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)I swear, some people are only happy if they think the world is going to hell.
ronnie624
(5,764 posts)That was a fascinating presentation on the decline of violence. It makes me wonder why the elite think they need a system for universal surveillance, when there is clearly a greater degree of security from societal violence than ever before. I think they want to use their surveillance system to prevent reform to the current global political/economic dynamic.
Bill Gates, like all rich people, is a fool who wants his cake and to eat it too. Capitalism and charity will not eliminate poverty, because that is not its purpose. Only an economic system that is designed to distribute resources to ALL people in an equitable manner, will do that.
LeftOfWest
(482 posts)He can shove his charter school bs right up there too.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)What Gates is saying is that foreign aid works, that charitable programs work, that helping the poor works. This is a direct attack against the typical right-wing talking points that foreign aid is wasted and the veiled racist assertion that people in these countries are beyond hope.
Gates is making an optimistic statement to counter the negative drum beat of the right. Just because you think it will be difficult to achieve does not make it a good goal or a good thing to shoot for.
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)will be poverty free.
Now everyone will jump onboard.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)You do realize that Jobs is dead, right?
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)Steve is always alive. Thou shall never besmirch the ayeLeader of the ayeApple.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)sulphurdunn
(6,891 posts)who seem to think their money confers vision and infallibility. But then, what else does one expect in a society that worships money?
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)He is a sick fuck.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)Since when is a person who commits his wealth to help society a "sick fuck"??? You have one strange outlook on life.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)throwing crumbs of bread to the slaves so he can get another days work out of them
Response to SoLeftIAmRight (Reply #26)
Post removed
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)I love you. Hope you wake up.
demwing
(16,916 posts)But your comment was pretty idiotic.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)It might be that you are young or gullible.
demwing
(16,916 posts)Last edited Wed Jan 22, 2014, 03:06 PM - Edit history (1)
Say whatever you like about me, it doesn't change the fact that Gates has used his money to do great good in the real world. More than me,and more than you.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)Humans have a rich fantasy life. Hope you enjoy yours.
demwing
(16,916 posts)me, Isla Fisher and Zooey Deschanel at midnight on the Black Sand beach in Maui, enjoying a bon fire and a hot tub filled with papayas, strawberries, sour cream and brown sugar.
I'm sorry that yours centers on Bill Gates being the source of idiocy in the world, but hey- whatever peels your banana...
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)While you dream of fruit filled hot tubs I will dream about what MLK would have done with a small part of the money that Bill is pouring into the hole in his soul.
demwing
(16,916 posts)You don't have Bill Gates' wealth, but think you know better about how it should be spent. Therefore, he's an idiot, and you're the successor of MLK?
You're right, humans do have rich fantasy lives.
BTW - taking the high road with me works. Pretending you're already on the high road just makes me, Isla, and Zooey giggle.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)While you dream of strawberries:
I wonder if the strawberries are laced with pesticides. I wonder if they were shipped from Mexico and if this is a sustainable agricultural system.
You dream of a hot tub experience with Ms. Deschanel:
I wonder what she thinks about your proclivity. I wonder about your ability to related to women appropriately.
You dream of the Black Sand beach in Maui:
I find myself wondering about the indigenous population of the islands and the destruction caused by tourism and hot tubs.
I think we see the world differently. I hope for more people who can think.
I hope for more people that are not distracted by shinny objects.
demwing
(16,916 posts)and I wonder if your friends think as highly of you as you think of yourself?
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)Maybe Bill will invite you to one of his "I am going to save the Universe hootenanny."
demwing
(16,916 posts)Maybe you do have a sense of humor after all.
Lol..."hot tub boy"
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)jakeXT
(10,575 posts)The world today has 6.8 billion people thats headed up to about 9 billion. Now if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by perhaps 10 or 15 percent.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)Its subjective, but the rational is, in a lot of these countries where you have high child and infant mortality rates, people tend to have more children because they want to keep their bloodline going and they know they are going to have children die because its such a common thing.
hueymahl
(2,496 posts)Gates in the same sentence referred to increased family planning. Better education, better health and increased access to family planning all are proven ways to reduce the birthrate.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)In 20 yrs...if climate change and water issues will be reeking havoc. Gates is an idiot. ..rich don't mean he has common sense
madrchsod
(58,162 posts)bill..no one believes you.
Dyedinthewoolliberal
(15,574 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Diane Sawyer doing a special on poverty in Appalachia, where she was from originally. Um, you know, Diane, nobody is stopping you from actually getting your hands dirty and going back there to help lift people from poverty. Buddha left a life far more comfy than hers in order to pursue higher goals.
Anyway...
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)Bill Gates believes in Santa Claus.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)polar caps, I fear.
glinda
(14,807 posts)24601
(3,962 posts)YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)blackspade
(10,056 posts)I think Bill has been sniffing his money again...
Festivito
(13,452 posts)Seems dumbly pie in the sky.
Alkene
(752 posts)ladjf
(17,320 posts)SecularMotion
(7,981 posts)A spam-free world by 2006? That's what Microsoft Corp. chairman Bill Gates is promising.
"Two years from now, spam will be solved," he told a select group of World Economic Forum participants at this Alpine ski resort. "And a lot of progress this year," he added at the event late Friday, hosted by U.S. talk show host Charlie Rose.
Gates said Microsoft, where he has the title of chief software designer, is working on a solution based on the concept of "proof," or identifying the sender of the e-mail.
One method involves a human challenge, or requiring the sender of an electronic pitch to solve a puzzle that only a flesh-and-blood person can handle. Another is a so-called "computational puzzle" that a computer sending only a few messages could easily handle, but that would be prohibitively expensive for a mass-mailer.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gates-spam-to-be-canned-by-2006/
Stuart G
(38,427 posts)What a idiot to say almost no poor countries left in 21 years....of course....just 21 years
What a dumb ass he is..
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)That's just 21 years from now. Two big problems poorer nations face is religious fanaticism and endemic corruption. Those are cultural issues that even Bill Gates' money can't solve. Religious extremists are holding back much of Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia (it's no coincidence that East Asian countries, the least religious have made great economic progress over the last half century). That same religious fervor is responsible for the pathetic treatment of women in many societies as well.
As for corruption, I guess that's a real chicken or egg question. Are poor countries poor due to corruption, or does poverty cause the sort of endemic corruption? It's evident that corruption thrives in poor countries. Can outside aid influence that? And to what extent.
But props to Gates for his work on getting vaccines distributed and putting money towards diseases like malaria, which big pharma sees no profit in.
demwing
(16,916 posts)It makes me sad
closeupready
(29,503 posts)H1-B's from India, or seems to from the way he lobbies for increasing quotas on H1-B's almost every year.
Why does he do that? Because it increases profits for Microsoft. At what cost? He doesn't care, but the cost is that effectively tosses skilled US workers currently doing those jobs into unemployment.
Not quite the liberal or pro-labor voice someone needs to be in order to be admired by many of us on this liberal, progressive board.
demwing
(16,916 posts)If I can see the incredible acts of charity that Gates has funded, and say "That man deserves respect" then why can't you?
closeupready
(29,503 posts)enabled great acts of charity, but were fortunes built on abuse of other people, ethics, trust, and so on balance, I guess I differ with you in weighing the good he's done (clean water projects, for one) against the bad and wrong he's done or continues to do.
pampango
(24,692 posts)just not wanting to give Gates any credit at all (even with the acknowledgement that he is a flawed actor).
It is not particularly liberal to profess that there is not way that absolute poverty can ever be eradicated. That would seem to be more of a conservative, even fundamentalist perspective on the presence of continuing absolute poverty in the world.
demwing
(16,916 posts)For inaction on health care and prosperity reforms, or perhaps you are correct, and they just can't accept that a person with serious flaws can also have the capacity to do serious good.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Here is the paragraph in its entirety from the letter..
"I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world. (I mean by our current definition of poor.){2} Almost all countries will be what we now call lower-middle income or richer. Countries will learn from their most productive neighbors and benefit from innovations like new vaccines, better seeds, and the digital revolution. Their labor forces, buoyed by expanded education, will attract new investments."
{2} Specifically, I mean that by 2035, almost no country will be as poor as any of the 35 countries that the World Bank classifies as low-income today, even after adjusting for inflation.
http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=myth-one
============
I think this is entirely possible given the way the world is changing due to the internet and improvements in global communications and connectivity.
Those countries may or may not actually improve but will no longer be "poor" because the definition of "poor" will change? No matter, I'll still take that bet.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,316 posts)then he thinks practically all countries will be above it by 2035. Here's the World Bank's list: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc
and countries with a per capita gross national income of $1,035 or less are 'low-income' - http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups#Low_income (Senegal is on the cusp - their table says the 2012 income was $1,030, but they've classified it in the lower-middle-income group for some reason). So he's saying he thinks by 2035, there will be almost no countries poorer than Senegal is now.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)China is now considered wealthy. There are plenty of people living in conditions that are nightmarish, yet China is wealthy, by his definition.
Many other countries have great GNP statistics, but too many are left behind in misery within them. The people left behind are ignored, the media does not know they exist.
This is why I say the future and even the present day is mixed. Some will see things are going perfectly, for their particular niche in society, it is.
Others will be so miserable that it can scarcely be measured. Some like where I live hold onto unions and public education which gives mobility. Other places are fully stagnant, no future for the needy. But even within those places still others prosper. This is worldwide.
By some measurements, what Gates says is completely true. But he is not addressing environmental destruction, working people, but just plain being alive. It was not enough for him in his life, and it's not enough for the underclass in all of these no longer 'poor' nations.
mathematic
(1,439 posts)There are 4 categories and they just entered "upper middle income" category a couple years ago. Also, this national income has translated into monumental gains in poverty reduction. In 2007 26% of china was living on less than $1.25 a day. Last year it was down to 6%! GDP per capita has increased 67% over the same period.
While the individual level is important, for the low income countries that's putting the cart before the horse. Around 700 million people have been lifted out of extreme poverty in China over the last two decades. 700 million! It's mind boggling. But look at this thread: if DU was around back then the idea would have been laughed at and ridiculed. Certainly the notion would have seemed crazy back then but now, with a global poverty rate that was halved in the last two decades why not set similarly ambitious goals about poverty over the next 20 years?
sendero
(28,552 posts)..... thought the internet was a fad, and that nobody would ever need more than 640K, KILOBYTES of RAM.
In other words, a fucking moron.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)it ain't gonna happen.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Amonester
(11,541 posts)countries left in the wolrd. There will just be a world without countries at all.
PSPS
(13,598 posts)It's hilarious how the wealthy are deified in the US. And, the more lucre they have, the more powers they acquire. It's aMaZiNg!
Kennah
(14,265 posts)MisterP
(23,730 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)Gates also has weird ideas about education.
I don't trust monopolists.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Not all of these goals will be achieved by the end of 2015, but weve made considerable progress in most areas and have reached some targets ahead of schedule. For instance, the very first goalto halve the rate of people living in extreme poverty by 2015was met five years before the deadline, mainly thanks to efforts in China, India, and Brazil. But its important to note that poverty rates have continued to fall in all regions despite the global recession. The world is also on track to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015.
In our report, the High-Level Panel tried to make these five transformative shifts more tangible by providing a list of illustrative goals and targets, including:
Increasing land tenure rights
Ending child marriage
Ensuring that every child leaves primary school able to read, write, and count
Guaranteeing sexual and reproductive health and rights
Reducing bribery and corruption
And doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix, among many other
Finally, and though this may prompt some resistance from our own government, I think its essential that the universality of the post-2015 agenda be maintained. Climate change, social and economic inequality, and the process of creating sustainable, shared economic growth are challenges we face as keenly in the United States as developing countries do abroad. We can continue to lead the world only if we acknowledge our own shortcomings and prove ourselves equal to the task of overcoming them.
Its always been easy to grow cynical about the state of the world, and cynicism has perhaps never been an easier or more natural response than it is today. But as I said in the beginning of my remarks, Im hopeful for the future. The experience of being on the High-Level Panel, I must say, played no small part in making me as hopeful as I am.
http://www.americanprogress.org/projects/ending-global-poverty/view/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Xyzse
(8,217 posts)He is positing this comment:
Mentioning that:
Where, concentrating on Health related issues instead would help tremendously, as he is citing a study that when people have longer and healthier lives, where more children survive, families tend be smaller, which could lessen over-population.
To tell the truth, I have heard hopeful signs in Africa due to their concentration on health related issues and hunger.
I may also have to agree that foreign aid is wasteful because it is expensive and corrupt officials receive it, which does not stimulate their actual economy, since it is horded by their 1%. So, I agree that setting up the infrastructure of an organization that can come in and help in hunger and health makes sense, rather than going through the politicians and their cronies.
I can not discount his prediction, as he is using sources that I have not examined.
This does not mean I agree with his prediction, it just means I can't call him an idiot for his view.
TBF
(32,060 posts)sends all of our jobs elsewhere.
jsr
(7,712 posts)LOL