UT/TT Poll: Abbott Holds 11-Point Lead Over Davis
Source: The Texas Tribune
After what are shaping up to be easy primary wins in March for the leading gubernatorial candidates, Republican Greg Abbott starts the general election race for governor with an 11-point lead over Democrat Wendy Davis, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Meanwhile, several statewide races on the Republican primary ballot for lieutenant governor, attorney general and comptroller appear headed for May runoffs. None of the leaders in those races looks close to the 50 percent support they would need to win next month's primary outright.
In the governors race, Abbott would beat Davis 47 percent to 36 percent in a general election held today, with 17 percent of registered voters saying they have not made up their minds about which candidate to support, according to the poll.
Weve been talking since the beginning of this race about whether anything would be different, and were not seeing anything thats different, said Jim Henson, co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. There was some talk about how Davis had done better in our last poll, and that was partially an artifact of her rise in the fall, and were seeing something of a reassertion of the normal pattern.
Read more: http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/24/uttt-poll-abbott-holds-11-point-lead-over-davis/
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Texas will take another generation before it's anything but a crazy, rightwing bible-thumping, gun-humping state.
Abbott is going around with Ted Nugent, and it's probably only helping him. Abbott is a far right lunatic and giftless hack, and he's leading a talented centrist Democrat by double digits.
Same state that gave Rick Perry three huge mandates.
lostincalifornia
(3,639 posts)say very much for Texas
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)their standards.
lostincalifornia
(3,639 posts)for states that continue to vote these extremists in, and then wonder why they don't have adequate healthcare and other services
iandhr
(6,852 posts)But your right Texas is not in play in 2016. I think they are focused on 2020
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)I am not sure why some keep insisting this is true. Wishful thinking is OK, I guess, but confronting reality is more helpful.
This also bodes poorly for this alleged upcoming majority we're going to have just because the country is becoming less white. The huge Hispanic population in TX isn't doing a fucking thing for us.
Paladin
(28,272 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)The starry-eyed optimists keep insisting that the influx of immigrants and people of color guarantees a Dem majority before the decade is out. Texas proves that this is false.
And deliberately misinterpreting my post doesn't help either.
lostincalifornia
(3,639 posts)gopiscrap
(23,765 posts)DFW
(54,436 posts)I hope he's right. I will contribute whatever I can to make it come true, and my friend's organization will do whatever it can to help. We may still lose, but whining about how we Texans are all Neanderthals doesn't seem to be a better strategy.
groundloop
(11,522 posts)Howard's been wrong before, but he's been right an awful lot, too. As a Texan, I have to hope he's right this time.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)rtracey
(2,062 posts)Texas is not going blue, and sorry, but Wendy Davis, although a forward thinking woman who came to fame this year will not become governor. If you think a large population of Latino voters are going to put Texas Blue....no, and the proof was in this years San Diego mayor race, where the Latino vote was dismal.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)with the Latino vote in Texas!?
rtracey
(2,062 posts)Yes I am.. I believe the "Texas will be Blue" sentiment is on the belief system that Latino voters are going to come out in droves, the same as they believed this in the San Diego Mayor race, and it is not so. I believe (IMO)...but I could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but several experts did say Latino voters tend to shy away from local contests....we shall see....
DFW
(54,436 posts)In Texas, we are not sitting around and hoping mis amigos Jesús y María are going to come riding in on white horses to save our sorry asses. Yes, they are our allies, but we are holding fundraisers and strategy sessions in lily white and upscale Highland Park in Dallas, too. Latinos aren't the only ones who suffer under Republican rule. White and black people get poisoned by fracking-contaminated water, too. People in surrounding areas fake their residences in order to get their kinds into Highland Park High because the public schools in surrounding areas are sometimes so sparsely funded, Sparta (the original) might seem upscale to them.
We have had a whack job in there for 12 years, and the prospect of another, worse one for the next four years is less appealing to white Texans than the radical right (not a true conservative among them, so I refuse to use the term) might think. Keep Abbott campaigning with Ted Nugent and thinking it's unimportant enough to not regret it publicly, and it will start to have an effect. We have some time, yet. We'll use it.
and here's hoping all will work out for the Democrats in Texas.
DFW
(54,436 posts)Like MLK said, I might not get there with you....
On the other hand, like RFK said.....why not?
Paladin
(28,272 posts)Sarcasm alert, for those of you in need of it.
Ezlivin
(8,153 posts)Tonight we're having another Battleground Texas meeting. We're right in the reddest of red areas, yet there is still support for Wendy Davis.
Texas was the first Southern state to ratify the Nineteenth Amendment and the ninth in the nation, by the way.
Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)I am voting for Wendy Davis, but I don't see her winning...at all.
Texas is a hardcore red state. I live in a fairly urban part of the state, and still...a vast majority of people I know would vote for anyone, so long as there is an R next to their name.
Even among people my age (mid-twenties), everyone either doesn't vote or is a libertarian.
Paladin
(28,272 posts)Not just Austin, but Dallas, Houston, San Antonio. Even if Davis doesn't win, her candidacy will further energize political sentiment against the state's Republican establishment. I have plenty of right-wing acquaintances, too, and they're apprehensive as hell about these upcoming elections. I think they have good reason for feeling that way.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Nanjing to Seoul
(2,088 posts)to cause a voter revolt against the swine Republican Crime Family that runs the state.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)TRoN33
(769 posts)campaign for Abbott, he's leading over Wendy Davis?!? Lord, what is the matter with Texans? Abbott as a governor will be the worst thing happened for Texans, ever. Good luck.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)They should be having a large voter registration drive to get voters registered and I'm not seeing that with the National Democratic party I think there going to abandon Davis just like they did in NJ by thinking it's a lost cause by looking at the polling.There needs to be serious new leadership in the DNC.Where is Howard Dean when you need him
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Instead of "the DNC should stop ignoring Texas" the real issue is "from what resources should the DNC take resources in order to spend in Texas?"
Money spent in Texas can't be spent somewhere else.
okaawhatever
(9,462 posts)legislation? Battleground Texas, among others, is doing a good job of registering voters.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)These polls were done just prior to Nugent's ride-a-long.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)the same polling firm had Romney ahead by 8 pts and surging the weekend before the Election last Nov........ looks like a dead heat!
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)compare their state polling with the actual results:
http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table%20YouGovLV%20ONLY.pdf
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Go Wendy!
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)I personally would rather see where PPP has the race
okaawhatever
(9,462 posts)plus 15 then. That showed a big jump in his support because a September poll showed Abbott 29 Davis 21. There are still too many people undecided, I wouldn't give up yet.
mc51tc
(219 posts)My area has always been very red. However, I voted about 5:00p.m. last week (after having to show an ID first of course). They asked me if I wanted a Dem or Rep ballot. Of course, I said Dem. with pride.
While I was voting, many other voters came to cast ballots behind me. All asked for Dem ballots to my surprise without one Rep. ballot being requested. I said wow, Wendy Davis is getting the Dem vote out early at least in my northern Dallas suburb.
We cannot give up this early in the game.
okaawhatever
(9,462 posts)by that she has closed the lead. With 17% in that internet poll still undecided, there's still time.
ctsnowman
(1,903 posts)this is more Romney landslide BS polling.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)TexasTowelie
(112,417 posts)I believe a sign of Wendy's strength will be the total number of voters that turn out in the primary as compared to how many votes Abbott draws in the GOP primary. The Republicans should have greater aggregate totals since they have more contested races on their ballot than Democrats. If the difference is close, then hopefully will help the national party and out-of-state contributors to give to the Davis' campaign.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)And then she will win 100 percent. Wendy seems to be a great debater.
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)I am the first to admit that Wendy has a tough election coming up. If the electorate is like the sample in the poll, she will lose. However, I believe that the Texas electorate is changing which may make it difficult to poll. In addition, Greg is proving to be a bad campaigner. Perry/Goodhair has many many flaws but he ran smart and well coordinated compaigns. Greg made a big mistake with Nugent and it will be interesting to see if he continues to do his best to alienate women and Hispanic voters.
I was at my county party headquarters training election judges for the upcoming primaries. I had ten newbies who wanted to know more about election law that will hopefully supplement the required class being taught by the election office. The newbies were excited about working at the primary. I had not seen this level of excitement in Texas.
In addition, Battleground Texas had 8 to 10 volunteers phone banking for Wendy Davis at the headquarters and the party had block walkers out hitting people who voted in 2008 and 2012 but who did not vote in 2010. The party has a better organization and focus compared to past years. The prior chairman (Boyd Ritchie) was an idiot who spend a great deal of money trying to win east Texas instead of working areas were there are actual Democratic voters.
Finally, I actually think that Leticia van de Putte may have a better chance than Wendy. The GOP Lt. Governor nominee is likely to be an idiot named Dan Patrick who is very extreme. In Texas the Lt. Governor is actually more powerful than the governor.
The polling in the OP does not surprise me but I want to see what happens when the electorate is fully engaged.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)We'll see a bump in the post-Nugent polls.
TexasTowelie
(112,417 posts)Most of the press reports fail to mention that this poll was taken prior to the Abbott/Nugent flap.