15:58: The press office for the Ukraine defence ministry in Crimea confirms to the BBC that an ultimatum from Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been delivered. The Russian naval forces are said to have given Ukraine's forces in the region until 05:00 local time (03:00 GMT) to surrender or else face an all-out assault.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

just the beginning. IMO he wants to return to the Soviet Union days.

Collapse and fragmentation, followed by re-aggregation of lost territory by an aggressive leader.

might be Putin's next targets?

The BBC reports that they are nervous.

I visited Lithuania in 1995 and the people were always asking if the US and NATO would come to their aid if Russia decided to roll tanks into their country once again.

The revolution in the Ukraine threatened Russian access to the Black Sea, which is vital to Russia's geopolitical interests in the Mideast. This has prompted the Russians to intervene militarily in the Crimea.

I don't think the Baltic States are as strategically important, so there is less incentive for Russia to annex them. I could be wrong, though.

Riga often remains ice free longer than St. Petersburg because its large harbor opens directly onto the Baltic Sea rather than the narrow Isthmus of Finland.

Memel also opens onto the Baltic Sea at the Courland Spit.

Both are extremely active ports, and much of the commerce that goes through them originates or ends its journey in Russia.

And there are many unhappy Russians living in all three of the Baltic states.

My read is that the Ukrainian unrest forced Putin's hand (at least in his own mind). He would be really overreaching to go after the Baltics as well.

Russia already has several nice harbors and ports along the 200 miles of Black Sea frontage they already own.

Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Sennoy etc. could all be made into nice large naval bases.

Might need dredging or facilities built but that's a piss poor reason to invade a neighbor over.

....I just keep hearing "lose their Black Sea access" from all points....nonsense, they have over 370 miles of coastline (includ the Azov which connects to the Black) and no environmental issues with dredging or port building. (meaning the russian EPA if they have one will toe the line) And several existing ports or protected bays they could use and already own. (see Glendzhik-Novorossiysk-Sennoy)

I am sure Putin know all that so that is a dubious reason for any taking of the Crimea except the possible emotional attachment to a city that fought off a Axis siege which lasted for 250 days before the city fell in '42, and the whole:
"Sevastopol was founded in June 1783 as a base for a naval squadron under the name Akhtiar (White Cliff),by Rear Admiral Thomas Mackenzie (Foma Fomich Makenzi), a native Scot in Russian service; soon after Russia annexed the Crimean Khanate. Five years earlier, Alexander Suvorov ordered that earthworks be erected along the harbour and Russian troops be placed there. In February 1784, Catherine the Great ordered Grigory Potemkin to build a fortress there and call it Sevastopol."

15:37: Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev has discussed the situation in Ukraine in a phone conversation with US Vice-President Joe Biden, the Russian government's press service says, quoted by Interfax.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

16:10: Richard Galpin BBC News, Moscow says Russian military spokespeople in Moscow are not giving any information about the reports of an ultimatum being given (see 15:58 entry). Our correspondent says this is not surprising; if the threat has been made, the military would be unlikely to say anything at this stage.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

I'm not surprised Moscow is not confirming.

Of course, Bomb, bomb, bomb Johnnie is invoking Cold War era rhetoric already. Just can't get enough of pushing neo-con swill for his masters.

Like Kristol he never saw a war he didn't like or didn't stand to make money from since his stint in Vietnam. Perhaps all this warmongering is his form of revenge on the world for a war he lost his manhood in.

No, I won't be nice. I used to have a bit of respect for him, some sympathy even, but since then have seen his true record in AZ and how he's been enriched by dirty deals. And he gave us Palin for the rest of our days, too. He and his jingoist charade can go straight to hell.

Others that lost far more, or even served and came back healthy and sane from the Vietnam war have my respect, but McCain lost it years ago.


'I'll carry on for you, Daddy!'

Whatever you do, don't believe McCain.

if the opposition had predicted this outcome out of a number of possibilities.

I remain convinced they've not a clue about the economics of the situation unless they believe they will be bailed out like Greece despite the fact they are neither EU nor in the Euro monetary sysyem.

A link on this thread says that Europe is concerned about the natural gas it recieves from Russia, just as Ukraine does.

But the EU (if that's what we're free to call Europe now?) has no doubt paid for its fuel, but Ukraine has not. So sanctions or actions by Russia can put all of their nations at risk.

No one wants to 'freeze in the dark' and national leaders are responsible for protecting their people from such hardship. So this may or may not turn out how some of us think it will.

I also read in one of the links (everything is disputed, I'm not saying it's correct) that 675K people from Ukraine crossed the border into Russia in January and February alone.

That is a statistic the Russians can argue at the UN, that the change in regime, violence or threat of it, and not from them, has or is now truly causing a humanitarian crisis. This would argue for their calls for an early election to get things in proper order again.

I've also, rightly or wrongly, contended Russians should have a voice in this new national government. And not because 'invading' Ukraine is a good idea - it is a terrible one - if they have proof - to protect their ethnic breathren. Such 'irredentism' which some call is a failed idea, cannot be ignored, no more or less. And to us it may sound crazy to be so determined about it.

All I can say regarding that, is I know Russians who live there, and like them as individuals. And from my conversations with them in the past, they take this idea very seriously. Their willingness to put boots on the grounds where ethnic Russians live, Georgia, Serbia, Iran, Syria and now Ukraine, is as firmly set in their hearts as we are to stop the killing of our citizens and soldiers in foreign countries. They say they are related by blood, and they will not turn their back.

It sounds like an ancient way of thinking. I don't say I am in agreement, but deriding it will not make it go away. They must be assured their relatives are not being harmed. That can be done with UN peace keeping forces, hopefully. We have members here with kin in those areas, and various ideas how this should be handled, and their feelings count, too.

I feel I went offtopic there but there are so many angles in this it's overwhelming. Perhaps most Europeans politics are that way. We just are not as complicated as a continent with thousands of years of war and borders being changed as Europe is.

And when you say 'EU nor in the Euro monetary sysyem,' aren't nations sans the UK on the Euro if they are in the EU. And the UK is in the EU, right?

UK , Sweden, Denmark and Czech Republic are all EU but have their own currencies by choice. Bulgaria and Romania are also EU but do not qualify yet under Debt:GDP rules etc.

Last edited Tue Mar 4, 2014, 07:46 PM - Edit history (1)

As is Greece, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Belgium and (unable to spell correctly some smaller places). And I think that Norway, Switzerland, Monaco and the Vatican are kept separate. AFAIK, Turkey was not allowed, and all those former soviet republics are not quite ready, with a number of names I won't try to list.

Why are the Germans allowed such a loud voice in affairs if they just a member state - do they have special rank in this?

The EU appears to not have been the European version of the USA as it may have been envisioned to be with each state an equal partner. And we don't treat territories and DC the same as the rest, ourselves.

Are they all subject to the EU's version of the human bill of rights?

Why is full membership based on debt, etc. Why not just leave them have their own financial system, good or bad - unless it's a problem of stability?

Germany has by far the largest economy in Europe and hence provides the most support for the Euro monetary system.

Latest news I could find on the subject here. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-eurozone-intellectuals-analysis-idUKBREA220EC20140303

The video I saw earlier had some Russians out screaming at Ukraine about "mother Russia" and something about the troops being their to protect them from people like (the guy was pointing at another guy) you.

There will be those that chose to fight

time to send Russia's economy to the bottom of the sea

enjoy the food lines, Mother Russia

16.12 Here is an interesting fact found on Twitter:

Russian deputy economic minister now guaranteeing to Interfax that ruble won't collapse. Wow, how far we've come in just a few days.

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/440523737927286785

Paul Sonne = Moscow correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. Currently in #Ukraine. Former @WSJ London correspondent.

Because that will be what it becomes if Putin keeps on with this madness.

16:26: Ex-oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was freed from a Russian jail in December, has released a statement saying he is ready to travel to "any location in Ukraine... to help prevent bloodshed". He says he believes "the presence of independent and internationally-known individuals... could help prevent the escalation of the conflict". You can read more about Mr Khodorkovsky - once Russia's richest man - in our profile of him here.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

not giving Russia an excuse to act further. Smart, so far. I feel for the the people of Ukraine--they are brave.

What is the difference?

The fact that we had to experience one does not preclude us speaking out on the other.

The US made mistakes in the past, but that is no reason to completely turn a blind eye to the situation as some on DU advocate. The isolationist are a bad redux of the early 20th century.

n/t

guessing not yours, Tommy.

The Russian's won't leave ever?

(not making Iraq OK, but that is a difference.)

Simferopol base in Crimea still in Ukrainian hands. Commander says he has not heard any new Russian ultimatum to give up by Tues 5am.

https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/440521568352210944

Elizabeth Palmer = CBS News correspondent - London Bureau

16.40 According to Reuters the speaker of Russia's lower parliament house said earlier today that "for now, there is no need" to send the Russian armed forces into Ukraine.
On Saturday Vladimir Putin secured the parliament's permission to use the military in Ukraine if he wishes, citing the need to protect Russians.

State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin told the state-run Rossiya-24 television in an interview:

they have given the Ukrainian Navy ships an hour to change sides or vacate.

Duncan Crawford BBC News tweets: Ukraine's Ambassador to the EU Kostiantyn Yelisieiev says #Russia may kill some their own troops as a provocation... (and blame #Ukraine)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

border in 1939?

Oh right, none.

comes at the point of a gun. No one is going to stop them with a subpoena.

and a little snarky.

16.52 Russian news channel RT is reporting that 400 kilos of explosives and arms have been seized from Kiev activists on the Crimean border.

TNT was confiscated as well as grenades, rifles and guns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-live.html

Russia has requested a third emergency meeting of the UN security council over the crisis in Ukraine. The meeting is scheduled to begin in about four hours, according to a Luxembourg diplomat who spoke with Reuters:

no more war.

see earlier posts.

The source of that was from the interim govt. - "Ukrainian defence sources have said."

Didn't come from the Russians.

An entire Air Force Division just turned over along with their 45 x Mig 29s.

Call up of military by the interim govt. isn't going well. Most soldiers are ignoring call up orders.

other than one article on RT (duh).

On the other hand:
Ukraine navy officers reject plea to defect to Russian-backed Crimea
"The officers broke into applause as Haiduk read them an order from Kiev removing Berezovsky from his position, and told them that Berezovsky was facing treason charges. When Haiduk had finished his dry but compelling address, the officers spontaneously broke into the national anthem, and some were seen to cry.
(...)
"We are resolving the matter by peaceful means, but we will never surrender our weapons," Haiduk said.
(...)
Timur, a Ukrainian frigate captain who declined to give his last name for fear of threats to his family, said: "I will stay true to my oath and I am sure this is also true of my fellow officers.""

Despite what Russian Defense Ministry says, those of us who were there heard this ship deliver ultimatum to Slavutych pic.twitter.com/fuf0enF19O



https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/440536399444328448

The first being the subject of the OP, to which this does not refer , and the second being in reference to the 4 ships blocking the harbour which it may be.

Maybe I'm confused. Isn't ultimatum meaning the surrender of Ukraine forces ?

One concerning Ukraine's ground forces in Crimea and the other their ships. Both issues had different timelines and as you are aware the first one was a claim made only by the Ukrainian minister which Russia refers to as nonsense.

Ukraine: Russia Demands That 2 Warships Surrender

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/03/03/world/europe/ap-eu-ukraine.html?_r=0

I see this one, which is disputed by Russia. I'll look for the ground forces one.

March 3, 7:07 p.m. -- Russian Black Sea Fleet Commander Aleksandr Vitko has delivered an ultimatum to the Ukrainian military in Crimea, Interfax-Ukraine reported, citing Ukraine's Defense Ministry. "If by 0500 tomorrow (March 4) they do not surrender, a real assault on the units and detachments of the armed forces of Ukraine will start across Crimea," the ministry said. Russian soldiers are are conveying this warning of the Russian Black Sea Fleet commander to Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea, the news agency reported. -- Anastasia Forina

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-march-3-live-updates-338232.html

Note - still quoting Ukraine's Defense Ministry.

17:16: Meanwhile, pro-Russian demonstrators have occupied the regional government building in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine. Donetsk is the home city of the deposed president, Viktor Yanukovych, and most local people are Russian-speakers. Here pro-Russian protesters are seen holding a meeting inside the building.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

Polish FM on Ukraine My biggest fear is Russian authorities believe their own propaganda and make fatal mistakes that open the gates of hell

https://twitter.com/mthprijs/status/440540511322263553

Matthew Price = BBC Europe correspondent - previously NYC/Americas/MiddleEast/Balkans

You might want to alter your OP.

The fact is that as day wore on contradictions occurred as is clear from replies above.

17.52 Russian troops pictured with armoured personel carriers and mechanical diggers at Chongar, the North East entry point to Crimea:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-live.html

18:06: EU foreign ministers have issued a statement saying they strongly condemn "the clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity by acts of aggression by the Russian armed forces." Following an emergency session in Brussels, the ministers called on Russia to immediately withdraw its troops to "the areas of their permanent stationing".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

Other general European responses here : http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/06/02/john-cleese-syria-and-alert-to-threats-in-europe/

the last time when you tried to explain that we shouldn't boycott the Olympics and pointed us to a Russian site to say that the gay laws weren't as bad as we thought?

apologist.

and that conveyed little sense of urgency. The next meeting is Thursday conveying an equal lack of urgency.

On the ground, Russian troops controlled all Ukrainian border posts Monday in Crimea, as well as all military facilities and a key ferry terminal, cementing their stranglehold on the strategic Ukrainian peninsula.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/2014/03/03/pro-russian-troops-take-over-crimea-terminal/x2RfqhulifzEpnvBzYZ7IP/story.html

More than six hours after the first reports of pro-Russian forces taking over regional government buildings in eastern and southern Ukraine, Oksana Grytsenko (@grytsenko_o) sends this update on the situation in Donetsk, Lugansk and Odessa.

Acting Ukrainian president Oleksandr Turchynov claimed a short time ago that Ukrainian forces had restored control in the south and east, but the reports could not be immediately verified and it was unclear whether he was referring specifically to the takeover of government buildings.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-crisis-russia-control-crimea-live

More at link.

The #Ukraine commander told us the Russians told him to surrender his weapons to the Russian Federation-he said no.

https://twitter.com/Worldwidewebb1/status/440568259268870144

The Russians also told the #Ukraine commander to pledge loyalty 2 the pro Russia Crimea government-he said no he was loyal to Ukraine govt

https://twitter.com/Worldwidewebb1/status/440569076742885376

red banner on Reuters

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News

Secretary General announces North Atlantic Council to meet following Poland's request for Article 4 consultations

The North Atlantic Council, which includes the ambassadors of all 28 NATO Allies, will meet on Tuesday 4 March, following a request by Poland under article 4 of NATO's founding Washington Treaty.

Under article 4 of the Treaty, any Ally can request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.

The developments in and around Ukraine are seen to constitute a threat to neighboring Allied countries and having direct and serious implications for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/2/live-blog-crisisinukraine.html

Reuters: Armed men seize Ukrainian border checkpoint at terminal of ferry between Russia and Crimea; three truckloads of armed men cross by ferry to Ukrainian side - Ukraine border guards

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News/108092856

.

Anyway - 6 hours time we'll know which side was lying.

Russia's U.N. envoy says ousted Ukrainian President asked Russia to send troops to "establish legitimacy, peace, law and order, stability."

"Today, I have been authorized to report as follows. President of Russia received following an appeal by President Viktor Yanukovych. I quote. Statement by the President of Ukraine. As the legitimately elected president of Ukraine declare that events on the Maidan, illegal seizure of power in Kiev led to the fact that Ukraine was on the verge Civil War. The country there is chaos and anarchy. Life and safety of people, especially in the southeast and in the Crimea, in jeopardy. Under the influence of Western countries made open terror and violence. People are persecuted for political and linguistic grounds, "- said Churkin.

РИА Новости http://ria.ru/politics/20140304/997988750.html#ixzz2uwEE3IUh

The President of the UNSec gavelled it to a close just now.

23.50 Mr Obama's national security adviser Susan Rice, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and General Martin Dempsey are also at the meeting, which comes as Mr Kerry is preparing to fly to Kiev.

23.35 As the crisis continues, Barack Obama is reportedly holding a meeting at the White House with senior military and national security advisers, including Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel and John Kerry, the secretary of state, to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-live.html

Ukraine’s mission to the United Nations released a copy of a letter to the world body describing in detail the Russian military deployment on its territory. The letter claimed that “approximately 16,000 Russian troops have been deployed in Crimea by the military ships helicopters cargo airplanes from the neighboring territory of the Russian Federation.”

http://www.scribd.com/doc/210392508/March-3-Letter-From-Ukraine-Mission-to-U-N

from this link: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/march-3-updates-on-ukraine-crisis/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=1&

Down memory lane with Tom Lehrer.

Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby just released this Department of Defense statement on the situation in Ukraine: