Payroll employment increases in March (+192,000); unemployment rate unchanged (6.7%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2014


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate
was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining
and logging.

Household Survey Data

In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million,
and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement
since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment
rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)
....

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million,
changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed.
The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force
participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent)
changed little over the month. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part
time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was
little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See
table A-8.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

The first response is that this is falling short of consensus. Yes, it is. I have been hearing estimates throughout the week that an increase of 200,000 was expected, and this morning I heard on the radio that the increase might be as high as 300,000.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Live From New York! It’s Jobs Friday!

8:07 AM
Apr 4, 2014 ET Markets
By Steven Russolillo


—National Archives

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.
A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for March hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect 200,000 new jobs were created — up from 175,000 jobs added in February — with the unemployment rate ticking down to 6.6%, from 6.7% a month earlier.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 191,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014770525

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2014:

Payroll employment increases in February (+175,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.7 percent)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014747923

ADP, for employment in February 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 139,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014745826

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2014:

Payroll employment rises in January (+113,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.6%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014721228

ADP, for employment in January 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 175,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014719171

BLS, for employment in December 2013, which was wildly out of line with ADP's figure:

December unemployment rate declines (6.7%); payroll employment edges up (+74,000)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014693851

ADP, for employment in December 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 238,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014691789

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.