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Omaha Steve

(99,632 posts)
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 09:07 AM Jun 2014

US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1

Source: AP-EXCITE

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a steep annual rate of 2.9 percent in the January-March quarter as a harsh winter contributed to the biggest contraction since the depths of the recession five years ago. But the setback is expected to be temporary, with growth rebounding solidly since spring.

The Commerce Department says the first-quarter contraction was even more severe than the 1 percent annual decline it estimated a month ago. Two-thirds of the downward revision reflected a decline in health care spending. Another major factor was a bigger trade deficit than initially estimated.

Despite the plunge in economic activity last quarter, many analysts think the economy is expanding at a strong rate approaching 4 percent growth in the current second quarter.

Read more: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20140625/us--economy-gdp-8042b965f8.html

26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1 (Original Post) Omaha Steve Jun 2014 OP
No worries. MannyGoldstein Jun 2014 #1
business at the hospital where I work tanked magical thyme Jun 2014 #2
"Two-thirds of the downward revision reflected a decline in health care spending." workinclasszero Jun 2014 #9
business would be booming if their prices were reasonable Skittles Jun 2014 #23
Meaningless at this point to talk about the first quarter. bradla Jun 2014 #3
Then why ever talk about GDP at all? FBaggins Jun 2014 #6
LOL. And the final second quarter numbers won't be in until near the end of DesMoinesDem Jun 2014 #8
The capitalist Spouting Horn Jun 2014 #4
2.9 percent is huge. loudsue Jun 2014 #5
Almost 12% on an annualized basis. That's frightening. closeupready Jun 2014 #11
The number is already annualized. n/t FBaggins Jun 2014 #14
Oh, okay, thanks for the correction. closeupready Jun 2014 #21
That WAS the headline this a.m. CountAllVotes Jun 2014 #13
The headline is everywhere else. BadgerKid Jun 2014 #26
And it's all that black guy's fault! Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2014 #7
Imagine the turn-around if we passed a Federal "Living Wage" in the $13-15 hr range! Dustlawyer Jun 2014 #10
But "expanding at a strong rate approaching 4% growth in the second quarter" frazzled Jun 2014 #12
I wonder who those "many analysts" are? former9thward Jun 2014 #15
Many analysts are predicting in the 3%+ range, but have cut estimates recently taught_me_patience Jun 2014 #18
The same people estimated 3% growth in q1. Turned out to be -3%. DesMoinesDem Jun 2014 #16
It really depends when the estimate was made taught_me_patience Jun 2014 #17
Not true at all. At the end of Q1 most estimates had GDP at just under 2%. DesMoinesDem Jun 2014 #19
And yet consumer confidence is HUGH! Doctor_J Jun 2014 #20
But, but, but, have you seen the latest TRANSFORMERS movie??? Amonester Jun 2014 #22
Since this only relates to the top 10% swappping money back and forth..... Cryptoad Jun 2014 #24
This is not the top 10% Omaha Steve Jun 2014 #25
 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
2. business at the hospital where I work tanked
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 09:18 AM
Jun 2014

"Two-thirds of the downward revision reflected a decline in health care spending."

It's starting to pick up now, but I'm in a tourist area and the surviving snowbirds have returned so it always picks up a bit this time of year. But we should have 20+ beds filled, and this past winter we ran 12-20. Likewise, we used to have a couple dozen outpatient specs to run in the evening. Instead it's more like 3 or 4. And we still have people -- even with insurance -- coming to the ED when they should be in their doctor's office.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
9. "Two-thirds of the downward revision reflected a decline in health care spending."
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 10:06 AM
Jun 2014

My deductible is now 4000 dollars.

Needless to say but I won't be going to the doctors till I'm forced to. Lousy insurance won't even cover basic blood tests anymore.

A guy I work with had an MRI ordered by his doctor. Our joke "health insurance" refused to cover it. He would have had to pay 1500 or 2000 or so out of pocket for it. Which he doesn't have of course seeing as how our wages were frozen 5 years ago, among other reasons. So he didn't get the test.

And this my friends are REPUBLICAN DEATH PANELS in action! "pro-life"? LOLOLOLOL!

 

bradla

(89 posts)
3. Meaningless at this point to talk about the first quarter.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 09:21 AM
Jun 2014

We are already almost done with the second quarter.

 

DesMoinesDem

(1,569 posts)
8. LOL. And the final second quarter numbers won't be in until near the end of
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 09:51 AM
Jun 2014

third quarter. And so on. According to your logic it is meaningless to EVER talk about the GDP numbers.

 

closeupready

(29,503 posts)
11. Almost 12% on an annualized basis. That's frightening.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 10:23 AM
Jun 2014

Obviously, swings happen in the short-term. Still, this is not good.

CountAllVotes

(20,870 posts)
13. That WAS the headline this a.m.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 11:08 AM
Jun 2014

on yahoo.com finance ...

Gone now and never to be seen again.

It is not good. It is bad, very bad.

The economy sucks for most of the people in this country.

& recommend.

Dustlawyer

(10,495 posts)
10. Imagine the turn-around if we passed a Federal "Living Wage" in the $13-15 hr range!
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 10:20 AM
Jun 2014

Our economy would explode! State and local governments would get the cash they sorely need. It would truly be a game changer. We would no longer be subsidizing Walmart and others. The money would be spent almost entirely each pay check instead of sitting in some Plutocrats bank account. Small businesses, while having more labor costs would also gain more revenue because people would have money to spend again.

Right now only the very wealthy have money, while for the rest of us things just get tighter and tighter. I am encouraged by the recent movements to get the money out of politics, but afraid it will not go far enough. They will want to make a few minor changes and say they did campaign finance reform. We have to make sure that when they do make changes that it is COMPLETE Campaign Finance Reform (CCFR)! We need to take a hard look at how individuals and corporations lobby our politicians. I understand that we need a way to make politicians understand the needs and desires of the citizenry for them to be able to legislate changes. Competing with that is the need to prevent undue influence over these same politicians to get what they want.

Publicly Funded Elections would go a long way to prevent the worst of the abuses, but not all. The other great thing about Publicly Funded Elections would be a short campaign period of a few months instead of the constant campaigning and fundraising we have now. The current system allows the Plutocrats to make regular payments to the politicians that they buy, that way if their politician says or does something they don't like the payments stop until they get back on track. I have seen this in action too many times which is why I constantly harp on this issue. It is the ruination of our once great country!

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
12. But "expanding at a strong rate approaching 4% growth in the second quarter"
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 10:56 AM
Jun 2014

People only read the headlines, you know. So that's what they take away: doom and gloom rather than a temporary blip followed by strong recovery.

former9thward

(32,006 posts)
15. I wonder who those "many analysts" are?
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 11:47 AM
Jun 2014

Unnamed of course. I have not seen any forecasts of "approaching 4% growth".

 

taught_me_patience

(5,477 posts)
18. Many analysts are predicting in the 3%+ range, but have cut estimates recently
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 12:50 PM
Jun 2014

Goldman Sachs: Q2 GDP revised down to 3.4% from 3.8%; Q1 GDP revised down to -1.1% from -0.9%.
Barclays: Q2 GDP revised down to 2.9% from 3.0%
Macroeconomic Advisers: Q2 GDP unchanged at 3.9%; Q1 GDP revised down to -1.4% from -0.9%. "The data on trade through April were consistent with our previous forecasts for growth of exports and imports in the second quarter," the group said.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-downward-gdp-revisions-have-begun-2014-6#ixzz35fdEkk2k

 

DesMoinesDem

(1,569 posts)
16. The same people estimated 3% growth in q1. Turned out to be -3%.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 11:57 AM
Jun 2014

Your quote is what analysts estimate, not actual growth. The past several years estimates have always been high, q1 a great example. They are hopes, not facts.

 

taught_me_patience

(5,477 posts)
17. It really depends when the estimate was made
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 12:46 PM
Jun 2014

most of the 3% Q1 growth estimates were made before the bad weather. After Jan., it was pretty obvious that growth would be slow. We are now almost done with Q2, so estimates should be pretty accurate. There has been a lot of positive news in Q2, and GDP should be strong.

 

DesMoinesDem

(1,569 posts)
19. Not true at all. At the end of Q1 most estimates had GDP at just under 2%.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 01:13 PM
Jun 2014

For example, Goldman Sachs estimated Q1 GDP at 1.5% into Q2. This is AFTER they knew the weather (which is the lamest excuse I have ever heard, can't believe people actually believe it). So estimates from after Q1 missed Q1 GDP by 4.5%. And now you're trying to claim that because Q2 is almost over estimates should be pretty accurate, even though they missed Q1 by 4.5% after it was over. Good luck trying to sell that. And even if GDP was somehow 3% in Q2 that would make the GDP for the first half of the year 0.

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
24. Since this only relates to the top 10% swappping money back and forth.....
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 02:58 PM
Jun 2014

it really meaningless for the other 90%!

Omaha Steve

(99,632 posts)
25. This is not the top 10%
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 03:18 PM
Jun 2014

This is tellers and other low pay employees. It also spans the spectrum for ALL employers so that can't ignore their responsibility to the retirement plan.

OS
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