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Julian Englis

(2,309 posts) Thu Mar 29, 2012, 11:57 AM Mar 2012

Poll: Sen. Bill Nelson opens up 8-point lead on Connie Mack

Source: Tampa Bay Times

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson holds a solid 8-percentage-point lead over one of his potential rivals, Congressman Connie Mack, in a new poll that shows Democrats are gaining political ground in Florida.

Nelson beats Mack by a 44-36 percent margin — a shift of 7 percentage points in Nelson's favor since January, when the two were essentially tied, according to Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute. Nelson's 8-point lead is outside the poll's 2.8 percent error margin.

Quinnipiac, however, didn't poll former Republican Sen. George LeMieux, who's running against Mack for their party's nomination. Previous polls showed Mack comfortably in the lead in the GOP primary.

But as the economy has improved and the fortunes of the Republican Party diminished, Democrats are picking up momentum in Florida. President Barack Obama now leads Republican Mitt Romney, whom Mack supports.

Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/poll-sen-bill-nelson-opens-up-8-point-lead-on-connie-mack/1222454

5 replies

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Poll: Sen. Bill Nelson opens up 8-point lead on Connie Mack (Original Post) Julian Englis Mar 2012 OP

Good news. Pray that Rubio does not make the VP cut. onehandle Mar 2012 #1

Well, if Rubio is to be believed (a stretch, I know) Cirque du So-What Mar 2012 #2

Summer polling will drive the VP choice..... Swede Atlanta Mar 2012 #3

Even the little Dutch boy Cirque du So-What Mar 2012 #4

"Good"... but not great. FBaggins Mar 2012 #5

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

1. Good news. Pray that Rubio does not make the VP cut.

Reply to Julian Englis (Original post)

Thu Mar 29, 2012, 12:00 PM

Mar 2012

If he does, Democrats will have to spend every waking hour in Florida.

Cirque du So-What

(25,939 posts)

2. Well, if Rubio is to be believed (a stretch, I know)

Reply to onehandle (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 29, 2012, 12:11 PM

Mar 2012

he's effectively removed himself from the running in VP selection already.

Swede Atlanta

(3,596 posts)

3. Summer polling will drive the VP choice.....

Reply to Cirque du So-What (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 29, 2012, 12:18 PM

Mar 2012

I suspect the GOP machinery will be watching polling carefully. The VP pick will most likely, in my opinion, be made to shore up support in a state or region the GOP needs to win and where support is waning. So, if electorally-rich Florida appears to be at risk from the GOP column, they will look for someone to help them there. Same thing applies to the rust-belt. Daniels, Kasich, etc. might become more attractive choices if there is trouble in Indiana, Ohio, etc.

Cirque du So-What

(25,939 posts)

4. Even the little Dutch boy

Reply to Swede Atlanta (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 29, 2012, 12:24 PM

Mar 2012

had trouble keeping fingers in all the holes in the dike, and I suspect the GOP will have the same dilemma when trying to cover all the regions where they're in trouble.

FBaggins

(26,743 posts)

5. "Good"... but not great.

Reply to onehandle (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 29, 2012, 02:48 PM

Mar 2012

Normally an incumbent polling at 44% would be in big trouble regardless of how far ahead he was (assuming a two-way race).

The saving grace here is that Mack does not lack for name recognition. So that rule doesn't apply as well as it otherwise would.

The trouble is that Nelson isn't even in the 6-8 most-endangered Democrats. He's probably tenth on the list. We can't afford for this race to even be a mild concern.

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