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Judi Lynn

(160,591 posts)
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 05:06 AM Sep 2014

Pakistan is eyeing sea-based and short-range nuclear weapons, analysts say

Source: Washington Post

Pakistan is eyeing sea-based and short-range nuclear weapons, analysts say
By Tim Craig and Karen DeYoung September 21 at 3:30 AM

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — In one of the world’s most volatile regions, Pakistan is advancing toward a sea-based missile capability and expanding its interest in tactical nuclear warheads, according to Pakistani and Western analysts.

The development of nuclear missiles that could be fired from a Navy ship or submarine would give Pakistan “second-strike” capability if a catastrophic nuclear exchange destroyed all land-based weapons. But the acceleration of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs is renewing international concern about the vulnerability of those weapons in a country home to more than two dozen Islamist extremist groups. ?

“The assurances Pakistan has given the world about the safety of its nuclear program will be severely tested with short-range and sea-based systems, but they are coming,” said Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center, a Washington-based global security think tank. “A cardinal principle of Pakistan’s nuclear program has been: ‘Don’t worry; we separate warheads from launchers.’ Well, that is very hard to do at sea.”

Western officials have been concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear program since it first tested an atomic device in 1998. Those fears have deepened over the past decade amid political tumult, terror attacks and tensions with the country’s nuclear-armed neighbor, India, with which it has fought three wars.


Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistan-is-eyeing-sea-based-and-short-range-nuclear-weapons-analysts-say/2014/09/20/1bd9436a-11bb-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e

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Diclotican

(5,095 posts)
1. Judi Lynn
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 05:39 AM
Sep 2014

Judi Lynn

A country that unstable as Pakistan - with anymore nuclear weapons...... Jikes I would say...

Diclotican

ReRe

(10,597 posts)
2. Right...
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 06:11 AM
Sep 2014

This is the country we've been drone bombing for the past, what? ten years?

But wait. This story is from a "propaganda tank."

Do what you want, but I'm going to 86 this because of the bogus factor.

bananas

(27,509 posts)
3. Pakistan and India are in a nuclear arms race - and it continues to escalate.
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:26 AM
Sep 2014

They are both expanding their arsenals and delivery systems.
This is an escalating situation, and it's getting more dangerous every year.
Nuclear war between India and Pakistan would result in a global nuclear winter sufficient to kill about 2 billion people from starvation.

FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
8. Terra Terra Terra
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 01:20 PM
Sep 2014

Oooga booga let's all hide under our beds.

MIC propaganda. They are not going to launch nukes at us, so it's not our problem!

And all the people smart enough to detonate a stolen nuke are much too smart and progressive to help Islamic extremists do it. Plus they are certainly well guarded, with the security forces well vetted to only be peace-loving moderates.

So nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
4. "This is the country we've been drone bombing for the past"
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:35 AM
Sep 2014

They really don't mind that as much as you think since for a long time the US drones were taking off from Pakistani Air Force bases.
They actually appreciate the help killing the more radical terrorists groups who want to take over the government there.
They pretend to mind for public consumption but Pakistani F-16's could easily shot down drones if they were so inclined.

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
5. It's no secret Pakistan has been building up their nuclear forces to combat..
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:39 AM
Sep 2014

...India's conventional and manpower edge.

June 12, 2011: Indian and Pakistani war plans are changing, in ominous ways, as India improves its mechanized forces faster than Pakistan can. In response, Pakistan has developed better short range ballistic missiles, armed with nuclear warheads. India also has short range missiles, but they also have a "Cold Start" capability for their non-nuclear forces. This was something the Russians developed during the Cold War. What it came down to was the ability to launch an attack on Western Germany, with a dozen or more mechanized divisions, with only a few hours warning. NATO improved its ability to quickly respond to such an attack, and that included having nuclear weapons ready to be used if the Russian Cold Start forces got too far into West Germany. This use of "tactical" (shorter range and less powerful) nuclear weapons turned out to be disaster in disguise. It was eventually realized that "going nuclear" would likely lead to escalation, and ultimately a large-scale use of nuclear weapons, and the destruction of the world as we knew it.

Pakistan is doing the same thing NATO did, developing more reliable short range nuclear missiles. This does not bode well for efforts to prevent nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

The best example of Pakistani "tactical nukes" is the Hatf 9, which was successfully tested earlier this year. This is the latest model in the Hatf line of nuclear armed missiles. With a range of only 60 kilometers, Hatf 9 is small enough for two to be mounted on one vehicle. It's trajectory is flatter than most ballistic missiles, making it more difficult for anti-missile systems to hit. The apparent size and range of the Hatf 9 is similar to the Russian OTR-21 (SS-21). Introduced in the late 1970s, the two ton, 650mm diameter, 6.4 meter (21 foot) long SS-21 had a range of 70 kilometers and a half ton warhead (large enough for existing Pakistani nuclear warheads). North Korea, a regular supplier of missile technology to Pakistan, had built its own version of the SS-21, and could have provided the needed technical assistance to Pakistan.

Pakistan has a full range of solid fuel rockets. In addition to the Hatf 9, there is the 1.5 ton Hatf 1, which appeared in 1989, has a range of 80 kilometers and a half ton warhead. The Hatf 1 apparently never entered service, due to reliability problems. Thus the Hatf 9 is basically the Hatf 1 done right....

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/20110612.aspx

bananas

(27,509 posts)
6. 'Small' Nuclear War Could Trigger Catastrophic Cooling
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 12:03 PM
Sep 2014
http://www.livescience.com/44380-small-nuclear-war-could-trigger-catastrophic-cooling.html

'Small' Nuclear War Could Trigger Catastrophic Cooling
By Charles Q. Choi, LiveScience Contributor | March 26, 2014 09:26am ET

<snip>

To see what effects such a regional nuclear conflict might have on climate, scientists modeled a war between India and Pakistan involving 100 Hiroshima-level bombs, each packing the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT — just a small fraction of the world's current nuclear arsenal. They simulated interactions within and between the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice components of the Earth's climate system.

Scientists found the effects of such a war could be catastrophic.

"Most people would be surprised to know that even a very small regional nuclear war on the other side of the planet could disrupt global climate for at least a decade and wipe out the ozone layer for a decade," study lead author Michael Mills, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, told Live Science.

<snip>

Previous studies had estimated that global temperatures would recover after about a decade. However, this latest work projected that cooling would persist for more than 25 years, which is about as far into the future as the simulations went. Two major factors caused this prolonged cooling — an expansion of sea ice that reflected more solar heat into space, and a significant cooling in the upper 330 feet (100 meters) of the oceans, which would warm back up only gradually.

"This is the third independent model examining the effects a regional nuclear conflict on the atmosphere and the ocean and the land, and their conclusions all support each other," Mills said. "It's interesting that every time we've approached this same question with more sophisticated models, the effects seem to be more pronounced."

These findings "show that one could produce a global nuclear famine using just 100 of the smallest nuclear weapons," Mills said. "There are about 17,000 nuclear weapons on the planet right now, most of which are much more powerful than the 100 we looked at in this study. This raises the questions of why so many of these weapons still exist, and whether they serve any purpose."

<snip>

 

heaven05

(18,124 posts)
7. slowly
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 12:45 PM
Sep 2014

Last edited Tue Sep 23, 2014, 04:22 PM - Edit history (1)

it heats up....ever so slowly. Iran and China having JOINT navel exercises? There will be a stumble or theft somewhere.

Response to Judi Lynn (Original post)

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
10. "Sorry, folks. I don't buy it."
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 02:32 PM
Sep 2014

Don't buy what?
That Pakistan is a unstable nuclear power who has been adding to their nuclear inventory is just a fact.
That it doesn't bother you is another matter. It may worry the rest of us however.

 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
11. Pakistan can't afford it and doesn't have miniaturization technology
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 03:27 PM
Sep 2014

Why not starve Pakistan with sanctions like we did Iran?

I have often advocated that we should stop all aid to Pakistan and let it fend for itself. A tiny banana republic trying to act like a superpower out of jealousy.

Better still, we should recognize Baluchistan as a separate country and give all the aid to the baluchis. They can really use it to be free of Pakistani terror apparatus.

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
12. "Why not starve Pakistan with sanctions like we did Iran?"
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:34 PM
Sep 2014

Because Pakistan already has a nuclear arsenal and the fear is with out some help propping up their govt and military it could fall to hardcore terrorists groups (The pakistani Taliban) and that would be MUCH worse.

 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
14. So .... in other words ....
Mon Sep 22, 2014, 09:31 AM
Sep 2014

let us torture you because it is better than us killing you?

It is classic blackmail and Pakistan has engaged in it repeatedly. Someone has to call the bluff.

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
15. So in other words propping up the terrible government in Pakistan..
Mon Sep 22, 2014, 03:13 PM
Sep 2014

....is better then the alternative of the government falling to the Pakistan Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Omar, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed or Sipah-e-Sahaba. Then one of those far crazier groups would have access to nuclear weapons...and if they use them on India and India fires back it is practically the end of the world as we know it...

http://www.livescience.com/44380-small-nuclear-war-could-trigger-catastrophic-cooling.html

Even a relatively small regional nuclear war could trigger global cooling, damage the ozone layer and cause droughts for more than a decade, researchers say.
To see what effects such a regional nuclear conflict might have on climate, scientists modeled a war between India and Pakistan involving 100 Hiroshima-level bombs, each packing the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT — just a small fraction of the world's current nuclear arsenal. They simulated interactions within and between the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice components of the Earth's climate system.
"Most people would be surprised to know that even a very small regional nuclear war on the other side of the planet could disrupt global climate for at least a decade and wipe out the ozone layer for a decade," study lead author Michael Mills, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, told Live Science.
The researchers predicted the resulting firestorms would kick up about 5.5 million tons (5 million metric tons) of black carbon high into the atmosphere. This ash would absorb incoming solar heat, cooling the surface below.
The simulations hint that after such a war, global average surface temperatures would drop suddenly by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), their lowest levels in more than 1,000 years. In some places, temperatures would get significantly colder — most of North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East would experience winters that are 4.5 to 10.8 degrees F (2.5 to 6 degrees C) colder, and summers 1.8 to 7.2 degrees F (1 to 4 degrees C) cooler. The colder temperatures would lead to lethal frosts worldwide that would reduce growing seasons by 10 to 40 days annually for several years.

 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
16. All those outfits are founded by Pakistani military and the ISI
Mon Sep 22, 2014, 09:33 PM
Sep 2014

with training, equipment, intelligence and guidance.

Starve the Pakistani military and those outfits would disappear.

Response to cosmicone (Reply #11)

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