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Omaha Steve

(99,658 posts)
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 07:33 AM Sep 2014

WHO: 21,000 Ebola cases by November if no changes

Source: AP-Excite

By MARIA CHENG

LONDON (AP) — New estimates from the World Health Organization warn the number of Ebola cases could hit 21,000 in six weeks unless efforts to curb the outbreak are ramped up, according to an analysis published online Tuesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

Since the first cases were reported six months ago, the tally of cases in West Africa has reached an estimated 5,800 illnesses. WHO officials say cases are continuing to increase exponentially and Ebola could sicken people for years to come without better control measures.

But the U.N. health agency has warned that tallies of recorded cases and deaths are likely to be gross underestimates. For instance, it noted Tuesday that the true death toll for Liberia, the hardest-hit country in the outbreak, may never be known, since bodies of people dying in a crowded slum in the capital have simply been thrown into rivers.

Based partially on the assumption that cases are being underreported, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to release far direr predictions Tuesday. A draft version of the report obtained by The Associated Press says there could be as many as 21,000 cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone by the end of the month and that cases could balloon well past 1 million by late January. Experts caution those predictions don't take into account response efforts.

FULL story at link.



Empty streets are seen during a three-day lockdown to prevent the spread on the Ebola virus, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2014. Volunteers going door to door during a three-day lockdown intended to combat Ebola in Sierra Leone say some residents are growing increasingly frustrated and complaining about food shortages.(AP Photo/ Michael Duff)


Read more: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20140923/eu-med--ebola_estimates-12cbe4dd7c.html

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WHO: 21,000 Ebola cases by November if no changes (Original Post) Omaha Steve Sep 2014 OP
Beyond a million. dipsydoodle Sep 2014 #1
"bodies of people dying in a crowded slum in the capital have simply been thrown into rivers." Nihil Sep 2014 #2
gross underestimates. look at the lockdown neighborhoods, no one is in those homes. Sunlei Sep 2014 #3
kick 840high Sep 2014 #4
There already are 20,000. Explained here: FourScore Sep 2014 #5
Omaha Steve Diclotican Sep 2014 #6
 

Nihil

(13,508 posts)
2. "bodies of people dying in a crowded slum in the capital have simply been thrown into rivers."
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 08:33 AM
Sep 2014

> But the U.N. health agency has warned that tallies of recorded cases and deaths
> are likely to be gross underestimates. For instance, it noted Tuesday that the true
> death toll for Liberia, the hardest-hit country in the outbreak, may never be known,
> since bodies of people dying in a crowded slum in the capital have simply been
> thrown into rivers.

Shit. That's really going to help isn't it?



Sunlei

(22,651 posts)
3. gross underestimates. look at the lockdown neighborhoods, no one is in those homes.
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 08:45 AM
Sep 2014

Almost no people on the balconies or in the windows. People fled those areas or they're already dead.

Diclotican

(5,095 posts)
6. Omaha Steve
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 09:58 AM
Sep 2014

Omaha Steve

Slums and overcrowding city's like this is a brewing ground for Ebola - and other nasty illnesses - like the plague was in Europe in the middle ages - who it spreed true the continent like fire - and maybe 1/2 of the people at the continent was dead before the plague ended - more because the ones who survived got Resistance for the illness than anything else - and also as a result of the smaller population have a relative better life and more comfort to leave places from where it was no hope, to places where it was more hope... And in fact - the food was getting better as people was eating more meat than before... Most of the middle ages was a world where most people was not eating much meat - after the plague more and more people could afford eating meat - and getting more proteins in their diet...

But this is on a similar level - even if Ebola is a more nasty illness than the plague was back in the middle ages - but it looks like it spread more and more like the plague did in the middle ages - by people contact - and specially in city's where rudimentary sanitary is not even there.... Like in the middle ages where the city's had no or just rudimentary sanitary services - overcrowded - with no sanitary services to speak off - the result was devastating for many places - even countries.... The mid 1300s was hard for Norway - where in less than 50 or so years - maybe half of the population was dead....

This is bad news for a continent, who for the last decade have grown basically from nothing - the progress who have been this continents greatest ability have been its population - who have been doing a lot the last couple of decades to solve some of their issues - and to make great progress for a bette future for the continent... Some say it is now a danger to that progress - because of the Ebola virus - who is spreading true the population and who make trade and commerce almost imposible...

Diclotican

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