Russia is winning and continues to hold the stronger hand. There is no way the EU end of the sanctions hold through the winter. Why would any person expect them to accept "terms"? China will buy their energy supplies if Europe won't play ball.

Same guys who rated AAA mortgage securities right up to the point where they collapsed completely, when a serious investigation would have shown them to be extremely risky vehicles (as they proved to be).

I strongly doubt Putin takes this move by Moody's seriously. Russia's debt is only 11% of GDP which is an extremely strong financial position relative to its western antagonists.

The sanctions have had an effect. As Russia itself says: http://rt.com/business/190628-sanctions-gdp-russia-oil-price/

Their problems, as the article you supply says, are 1) destabilization of a major trading partner - Ukraine; and 2) a drop in the price of oil.

Way way way down at the bottom of the article it is claimed that "sanctions also have an effect" but nobody in the Russian government is saying that.

All of that will be a drop in the bucket compared to what happens in Europe this winter if Russia shuts off the gas. And in the meantime, they are taking the opportunity to reposition themselves for a world that is no longer subject to the whims of western oligarchs.

They wouldn't admit that it was the sanctions unless the effect was so devastating that it served to galvanize the populace against the West. Few feel "sanctions" as the "act of war" and the "act of aggression" that Lavrov has declared them to be.

Causing a recession ... Not serious enough. But if the results were truly devastating enough for everybody to feel them, then Lavrov and Putin would play them up.

Just as the collapse of the USSR was a CIA/NATO/Western plot, even though in the '90s folk like Gaidar were busy pointing out that the roots of the economic collapse that led to the political collapse lay in the history of "good" policies pursued by the USSR economic wizards and leaders. The goal was to understand what had happened, and they had some insights. But now nobody talks about those analyses; they really prefer the Reaganite story, because then the USSR was a victim, wholly blameless and pure, and the Russians noble victims of rampaging ravening Westerners. Rather like the Orthodox Jesus. Then again, a lot of people that rather like the USSR in the West also have the same attitude, because they already believe that their peers in the US and Europe are wholly evil. Having an enemy in common with a stranger makes the stranger a BFF.

cannot afford to lose the revenue from selling gas to Europe.

And who to do you think runs Russia? give you a hint, it is Putin and his oligarch pals.

So Europe has to send the revenue to Russia. It's either that or freeze and shut down their factories too.

It is true of many currencies, friend, foe or miscellaneous.

bargaining position. They are the only bidders.

government revenues are plummeting.

These sanctions are a joke (and also an act of war).

At this rate, Russia will eventually ween itself from the USD entirely. When China does as well, we will be looking at very dark times.

Once weaned off US Dollar and set up their own SWIFT system, they can attract US investments simply because they will be outside FATCA and other bank reporting. So millionnaires and billionnaires money will accumulate tax free.

But, we have to feel macho by cutting our nose to spite our face don't we?

the rest of the world finds FACTA to be extremely offensive (which it is - we are effectively claiming control over other countries' banks) and nobody will put up with it when an alternative to SWIFT is available.

SWIFT provides a mechanism to report and send financial transactions. It connects banks and financial institutions. How does a new SWIFT system take those banks and financial institutions outside of FATCA?

Reminds me of the restaurant patron who complains that the food was inedible and the portions too small.

You seem unaware of how economies work. China needs the US and Europe as trading partners. Russia is their gas station.

They will pivot their considerable industry to the BRICS, Africa, and Latin America. They will their own currency as they do.

Also, as much as China wants the US, the US needs China to keep prices low or WalMart shelves will be empty and all electronic and plastic things will cost twice as much.

Last edited Mon Oct 20, 2014, 06:13 PM - Edit history (1)

has a bunch of happy people that are doing well presently while the West drowns in
a sea of immorality and despair. This won't last forever but some of it will last a long time. China
has now moved ahead in economic leadership of the world. Let another people enjoy some happiness
that the US will never have again until elections are about those who would do the job rather
than those that are paid to get elected.

(Reuters) - Poland's parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, has been quoted as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then leader in 2008 that they divide Ukraine between themselves.

Sikorski, who until September served as Poland's foreign minister, was quoted telling U.S. website Politico that Putin made the proposal during Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008 - although he later said some of the interview had been "overinterpreted".

"He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine ... This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow," he was quoted as saying in the interview dated Oct. 19.

"He (Putin) went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don't we just sort it out together," Sikorski was quoted as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/20/us-ukraine-crisis-poland-sikorski-idUSKCN0I92A720141020

Obvious lie. This would be like Pres. Clinton confiding about his affair to the head of the Republican Party.

(Note: Are people getting it yet all these guys have connections to the Republican Institute and NeoCon orgs? Including the new Ukraine Pres? The "orange revolution" Candidate? The NeoCons have been working mightily in Europe... get the connection yet to the rise of conservatism and right wing fanatics there?)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rados%C5%82aw_Sikorski

In the mid-1980s, Sikorski worked as a freelance journalist for publications such as The Spectator and The Observer. In 1986, he travelled to Afghanistan to aid the mujahideen against Russia, while a war correspondent for The Sunday Telegraph.[7] He won the World Press Photo award in 1987 for a photograph of a family killed in a bombing by the Afghan Air Force.[8] In 1989, he became the chief foreign correspondent for the American magazine National Review, writing from Afghanistan and Angola. In 1990–91 he was the Sunday Telegraph's Warsaw correspondent.

From 1988 to 1992 he advised Rupert Murdoch on investing in Poland.


In the United States

From 2002 to 2005, Sikorski was a resident fellow of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and executive director of the New Atlantic Initiative.[12] He was editor of the analytical publication European Outlook, and organised international conferences. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the American Committees on Foreign Relations.[13]

There is some strange stuff going on, Ukraine was sort of back burner for a while, now there is a new barrage of leaks and allegations and mysteries and whatnot. That's why I dumped the stories. There is an Election coming, too.

He does say it was "over-interpreted".

The war in Ukraine is not going to go away. There is very little pressure being applied to make sure it contains. Personally it appears that other efforts are taking attention for the moment... but no doubt that the IRI, McCain, et all are regularly strategizing with the neocons in Ukraine, Poland, etc to get what they really want out of this.

It does jibe pretty well with history, as you are doubtless aware. Comparison of the boundaries of Poland before WWII and after WWII will show a distinct westward shift. The portion of Poland allotted Stalin under the Hitler-Stalin Pact was retained after the war by the Soviet Union, mostly as part of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic.

Most of Stalin's 'acquisitions' during the course of the Hitler-Stalin Pact aimed at bringing all areas with much in the way of Ukrainian population under Soviet authority, with the aim of ensuring it would be difficult to raise any substantial 'Ukrainian Legion' style force to accompany invasion of the Soviet Union, or to declare a 'Free Ukraine' with any territorial security. He knew better than anyone just how unpopular Soviet rule was in Ukraine after the recent mass starvation.

Absorption of the Baltic states was a separate matter....

But it might also vanish into the memory hole. In fact that seems the way to bet. I have liked the election posturing idea a lot since it came up.

And also the gas talks go with the election as a motive.

Probably has more economic effect on Russia than the sanctions, and presses down the gas price as well....

In the election posturing line, Sir, I note some noise from secessionists of 'ending the cease-fire'. The vote for the Radical party ( the standard bearers currently for claiming Kiev is a nest of Nazis ) will fluctuate in close coupling with the degree of violence immediately before the election, and it will be very much in the propaganda interests of Russia for them to get a larger than presently expected share of seats. The un-holy alliance between Arab Palestinian militants and Likud in maintaining one another in power comes to mind....

Oil price drop: punish Russia is one of several plausible theories I've seen, and it was my first thought. The trouble I have with it now is that the price move cuts so many ways it's hard to assign motive on that basis to any particular party. I think we will have to find where the price drop is coming from, who is producing the glut.

Other possibilities are the Saudis defending fossil fuels, ISIS raising funds, overthrowing Venezuela, etc.

It would seem to me to have the possibility of doing great harm to our fracking industry too, for example, and renewables.

And it could be plain old "We need more money, turn on all the pumps!".

Edit: and demand destruction needs to be looked into too.

But any way you look at it, it looks like a price war.

i agree that some slowing in economic activity globally could be at the root of it, and that advantage can be taken of that in several directions. There probably is some cross-cut between the Saudis and our shale oil types for instance, but the latter seem just as willing to court a price drop, or at least feel they can weather one. There is no doubt it puts a serious crimp in Russian revenue, though.

as time goes on the effects wiil percolate elsewhere. At $80/bbl this can go on for a while, but I expect $60 will cause things to happen fast.

Edit: and yeah, the ISIL idea is silly, and Venezuela, and renewables. I perfecty example of that fact that "plausible" is a much bigger set than "true".

You think government officials never lie?

This was supposedly said 6 years ago and it's only coming out now? I call BS.

WARSAW, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The speaker of Poland's parliament, Radoslaw Sikorski, said on Tuesday he had mis-remembered when he told an interviewer that Russian President Vladimir Putin had proposed that Warsaw and Moscow occupy Ukraine and divide it between them.

In an interview with U.S. website Politico dated Oct. 19, Sikorski said that Putin had made the proposal to Donald Tusk, who at the time was Polish prime minister, during a 2008 meeting between the two leaders in Moscow.

"There was an over-interpretation in the text and my memory failed me, because after a check it was revealed that there was no such meeting in Moscow between Tusk and Putin," said Sikorski, who served until last month as foreign minister.

"It's natural for a human being to get ahead of oneself and this was the case here," Sikorski, who is married to Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum, told a specially-convened news conference.

http://www.trust.org/item/20141021165636-rwz1s/

Barack Obama’s grandfather was a Cannibal, ministers in Poland joke | EUTimes.net

A political scandal is gathering pace in Poland. Officials of the Polish administration are accused of releasing racist statements against US President-elect Barack Obama. Poland’s large opposition party Right and Justice said that the remarks had been voiced by the Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, the Dziennik newspaper wrote.

“Why does Barack Obama have Polish roots? Because his grandfather ate a Polish missionary.” This is the joke that Sikorski supposedly distributed in his ministry. The minister, the newspaper wrote, explained afterwards that he had heard the joke from someone else. However, Witold Waszczykowski a spokesman for the National Security Bureau, confirmed that he had heard the joke from Sikorski and added that he would be ready to testify at court.

Complete story at - http://www.eutimes.net/2009/07/barack-obamas-grandfather-was-a-cannibal-ministers-in-poland-joke/

http://www.eutimes.net/2014/06/obama-takes-gay-war-against-marriage-global/

Obama Takes Gay War Against Marriage Global

"According to the American Family Association, “the core goal of the homosexual movement is to abolish the traditional, Christian view of human sexuality, marriage and family.”

The AFA does not elaborate in detail on the homosexual agenda and its ultimate goal, the destruction of the concept of marriage and the dissolution of the traditional family.

Gay activists, however, speak openly about the agenda now pushed by the Obama administration and the State Department.

“For quite some time, the defenders of natural marriage have attempted to point out that the true agenda behind the homosexual demands organizations is not marriage equality; it is the total unraveling of marriage and uprooting traditional values from society.”"

The site is a well-produced European White Nationist site. It is a little cleaned up from what it was several years back, but remains pretty foul...

By the way, it will try and open mal-ware pop-ups from links to it....

HELSINKI, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- It is important to carry on an open dialogue with Russia about Baltic security, said the Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb when discussing the current situation near Stockholm with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven on Monday.

Lofven, who just took office in the beginning of October, made his first official visit to neighboring Finland and met with his Finnish counterpart on Monday.

The prime ministers discussed the ongoing events near Stockholm, where the Swedish navy is said to be hunting for a possible foreign underwater vessel.

"There is no submarine hunt underway, there is an ongoing intelligence gathering operation," Lofven said in the press conference after meeting with Stubb.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/euruope/2014-10/21/c_127120019.htm

these "testings" go on all the time. We do them too.

Especially when relations are as tense as they are. But it feeds into emotions and thus page views to make it look like something unusual.

Add to that officials that also are not afraid to misrepresent happenings for what they consider to be geopolitical advantage.

KIEV

The 6-week cease fire between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists has been terminated by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, rebel leaders said on Monday.

The Ukraine government and the separatist rebels had agreed to a cease-fire on September 5 in the Belarussian capital of Minsk after five months of conflict in eastern Ukraine.

But on Monday the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Alexander Zakharchenko announced via his social media account that his group considered the cease fire at an end.

"The cease fire - which exists only as a formality - we can say that ended today after Donetsk was attacked with rockets", he said in a tweet.

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/rss/407617--pro-russian-rebels-end-cease-fire-agreement-with-ukraine

The US never placed any pressure on Ukraine and Russia does not have the control of the rebels that it is attributed. You don't stop a civil war where cities have been bombed and both sides have had friends die without a lot of weight behind it.

It is pretty clear that it is very desirable to use what is happening in Ukraine to proxy against Russia.

An attempt to influence electoral results, by pumping the share of the Radicals a bit, and so preserving viability of the 'they're all fascists in Kiev' propaganda line, which is in some danger otherwise....

Fighting shook the east of Ukraine a day before its government begins three-way talks with Russian and European Union officials in Brussels to negotiate the resumption of natural-gas deliveries which were halted in June.

The cease-fire in Ukraine’s easternmost regions, sealed Sept. 5, was broken several times during the past 24 hours, with two soldiers and 14 rebels killed, the military said yesterday. Ukraine’s state energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy said the government in Kiev and the European Commission reached a “consensus” before the talks today. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she wants the gas deal clinched and that a bridge loan for Ukraine may be needed to end the spat.

The standoff between the two former Soviet republics is coming to a head four months after Russia halted shipments over a pricing and debt dispute as a separatist insurrection raged in eastern Ukraine. The EU, which depends on Russian fuel piped across Ukraine for about 15 percent of its needs, has been seeking to broker a deal to avoid a repeat of supply cuts experienced in 2006 and 2009.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-20/ukraine-fighting-batters-truce-before-gas-talks-begin.html

MOSCOW, Oct 20 (KUNA) -- Russian TV Monday accused Ukraine's troops of striking Donetsk in eastern Ukraine with ballistic missiles, but Ukraine's news agency quashed such reports.

The bombardment destroyed a host of houses and facilities in the city, Russian TV reported, citing sources there, without giving more details, yet Ukraine's news agency said that at least six people were injured due to military operation in Donetsk.

Meanwhile, Sergei Nikitin, an Amnesty International's representative in Ukraine, accused, in a statement to Russian TV, the fighting parties in East Ukraine of committing huge violations of human rights.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2403530&Language=en

Russia has stiffened its retaliatory sanctions against Europe in response to restrictions placed on the Russian economy over its attitude with Ukraine.

From Tuesday a temporary ban will be in place on imports of European animal fats, feed and meat by-products, extending a ban on other European, American and Canadian foodstuffs.

Russia’s veterinary service said the ban was due to the detection of hazardous substances.

Most other Western foodstuffs have already been banned in a sanctions package costing the West some seven billion euros.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/10/20/russia-extends-its-embargo-on-western-foodstuffs/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+euronews%2Fen%2Fbusiness+%28euronews+-+business+-+en%29

EU foreign ministers said on Monday the cease-fire and peace plan in Ukraine have helped reduce fighting between government and pro-Russian rebels, but they condemned the continued violations of the accord.

The agreements reached last month were a step towards a sustainable political solution of the crisis, the EU's 28 foreign ministers said, but they postponed until the end of the month a review of current sanctions against Russia.

Although the incident was not on the ministers’ agenda, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstroem spoke upon arrival about her country's efforts to identify "foreign underwater activity" in the Stockholm archipelago and about a possible Russian role in the incident:

"When it comes to this question, then I also believe it is about keeping a cool head. We trust our military, they should do their job. We have, of course to distinguish between actual activities, such as Russian aggression in general, and what so far is a mere speculation.”

http://www.neurope.eu/article/eu-maintains-russia-sanctions-warns-separatists-ukraine

Baku-APA. The European Union is not planning to soften its sanctions imposed on Russia over its policy in Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna said after an EU Council meeting on Monday, APA reports quoting ITAR-TASS.

It would be bad if the revision of sanctions and their consequences ended in their suspension, he added.

The Polish foreign minister said the EU should consistently preserve its sanctions, which could be revised only if Russian changed its stance.

Mr. Schetyna said that all EU foreign ministers were unanimous on the sanctions issue.

http://en.apa.az/news/217885

MOSCOW — A Russian activist who sought to document the deaths of soldiers believed to have been sent covertly to fight in Ukraine was released from custody on Monday for health reasons, according to an advocacy group.

The Soldiers’ Mothers Committee in St. Petersburg, an organization that defends the rights of soldiers, announced last week that one of its associates working in southern Russia, Lyudmila Bogatenkova, 73, had been placed in pretrial detention on fraud charges. The organization called her arrest “an act of intimidation connected to her activities,” in a statement.

Ms. Bogatenkova, who was said to be in poor health, was released after she pledged not to leave her town, Budyonnovsk, in the Stavropol region, the organization’s spokesman said Monday.

Ms. Bogatenkova was investigating the deaths of soldiers who by official accounts served in the southern Rostov region near the border with Ukraine, but who activists suspected were actually killed or wounded while fighting in Ukraine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/europe/russia-frees-activist-who-was-investigating-soldiers-deaths.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

BRATISLAVA: German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday (Oct 20) called on Ukraine's allies to help the war-scarred nation pay off its gas debts to Russia, amid concern over gas supplies this winter.

Russia and Ukraine are in talks to secure a deal to end their gas dispute, months after Russia's Gazprom cut supplies to the ex-Soviet state.

Merkel spoke in Bratislava after meeting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who reaffirmed his opposition to offering Kiev any financial assistance.

"Everyone must contribute, including Slovakia," Merkel told reporters in the Slovak capital. "We're looking for a solution now, we don't have one yet and winter's already coming." She said it was important for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine to reach a solution "that will help stabilise gas supplies this winter".

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/international/merkel-urges-allies-to/1426336.html

Baku-APA. The gas supplies from Russia and situation in Ukraine were the main topics during discussion between Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Slovak president Andrej Kiska and German chancellor Angela Merkel, who visited here on Monday, APA reports quoting Xinhua.

Fico called the recent cuts in gas supplies from Russia a "reason for serious concern." "Supplies of such raw materials shouldn't be a tool in the political struggles of the supplier, and I believe that the attainment of peace and stability in Ukraine will also result in the attainment of stability in gas supplies to Europe," stressed Fico.

Merkel emphasized the need for a joint course of action in promoting energy security in Europe, and she praised Slovakia's efforts to cooperate by enabling reverse gas flows. She expressed her major commitment to making sure that talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia will be concluded in a timely manner so that gas supplies aren't disrupted during the winter.

http://en.apa.az/news/217882

Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is scheduled to arrive in Israel for talks on Wednesday, the highest-level Ukrainian official to visit since the crisis erupted with Russia earlier this year.

During the Ukrainian crisis, Israel took a doggedly neutral stand, partly out of a reluctance to do anything to anger the Russians.

In a related development, Israel and the Czech Republic will hold their third government-to-government meeting when Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka brings a large delegation of cabinet ministers to Jerusalem in late November for a meeting with their Israeli counterparts.

This will be the third such meeting between the two governments, indicating the closeness of ties between the two countries. The Czech Republic is among the friendliest countries toward Israel in the EU.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Ukrainian-FM-to-arrive-in-Israel-for-talks-379351

Sweden's biggest submarine hunt since the dying days of the Soviet Union has put countries around the Baltic Sea on edge. While Sweden hasn't linked any country to the suspected intrusion - and Moscow denies involvement - the incident sent a chill through the Baltic Sea region, where Russian forces have been accused of a series of border violations on land, sea and air in recent months.

"Closely following events in the Swedish territorial waters, may become a game changer of the security in the whole Baltic Sea region," Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics wrote on Twitter.

Swedish military officials say there have been three sightings of the elusive craft since Friday. On Sunday they released a photograph taken at a distance of what they said could be the mystery vessel - a dark speck surrounded by foaming water.

The search made headline news in countries across the Baltic region including in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, three former Soviet republics spooked by Russia's intervention in Ukraine.

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/sub-hunt-sends-cold-war-shiver-across-baltics-30680259.html

(Reuters) - Russia and Ukraine aim to resolve an impasse over natural gas supplies on Tuesday as their energy ministers meet in Brussels for talks brokered by the European Union's energy commissioner.

Citing unpaid bills worth more than $5 billion, Russia cut off gas flows to Kiev in mid-June, adding to tensions sparked by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.

After months of stalemate, pressure has mounted to reach a deal to allow gas deliveries for heating as winter approaches.

Differences remain but Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said ahead of the talks that he hoped to finalize a deal on Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSKCN0IA17920141021