Oil Drop Further Rocks Putin’s Economy
Source: Fiscal Times
Amid continued economic deterioration, the Russian government took steps to reassure the public yesterday that its leaders are on the job. Russians have seen the purchasing power of their savings cut in half due to a plunge in the value of the ruble, brought about by a devastating decline in oil prices and a raft of economic sanctions levied by the international community in response to President Vladimir Putins decision to invade parts of neighboring Crimea.
On Monday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev admitted that the economy is facing a crisis, but said the Kremlin was focused on the problem. Russian leaders will apparently respond by holding meetings. Lots of them.
The economic situation is quite problematic to say the least, Medvedev said Monday, according to a number of media reports. Therefore, all of the members of the government must hold key meetings in the areas that they coordinate, as we have already agreed.
This should be done regularly, he said. However, given the challenges facing Russia, the usefulness of bureaucrats gathering in conference rooms is debatable. On Monday, the market prices of both crude oil and natural gas, far and away Russias most important exports, continued their precipitous drop.
Read more: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/01/13/Oil-Drop-Further-Rocks-Putin-s-Economy#sthash.ms37AALf.dpuf
TBF
(32,106 posts)the oil price was dropping so much. I knew someone was playing with supply (duh) but didn't really think about why.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Because oil shale and fracking costs are greater than their traditional drilling techniques. They are trying to push increasing US, Canadian, and Russian market shares into a price range that makes it ineffective to keep producing oil/natural gas.
They're trying to corner the market by underselling everyone, similar to WalMart.
cstanleytech
(26,326 posts)just resume getting the oil from fracking and from shale.
A better move imo would have been for OPEC to expand into things like solar power, wind and other renewable sources because in the long run the oil "will" dry up.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)They must have felt that progress towards alternate petroleum obtaining processes (shale/fracking/etc.) have become too cost effective. In the short run, they can maintain a monopoly simply by lowering prices. That's easier than spending money on new energy sources. Likewise, as the cost-effectiveness goes down for non-traditional petroleum sources, innovation that would make them even cheaper slows down because it's also less cost effective.
For the time being, they are maintaining their monopoly as cheaply as they can. In the future, I have no doubt they will embrace anything to maintain their control. Right now though, nothing further is needed, as evidenced by US, Canadian, and Russian shale/fracking coming to a screeching halt in the last month.
cstanleytech
(26,326 posts)A good long term strategy though is to take the money they have gotten and arent using really is to invest it in things that will grow and renewable energy is probably the best bets around unless something like cold fusion should be discovered but so far thats been a bust where as solar and wind are proven they just need the time to grow which will happen once most of the oil sources are dried up.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Undoubtedly they will (and have) invested in alternative sources. It's just currently cheaper for them to pump oil. When something else becomes more feasible, they'll do that.
They are fearful of solar however, as they cannot possibly contain it.
cstanleytech
(26,326 posts)systems as well as varies solar farms, if they do that then they will be sitting pretty when the oil market finally does go bellyup.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Incidentally this will likely be because solar farms will be less prevalent than smaller panel systems.
TBF
(32,106 posts)They could be stretching out as long as possible with these kinds of moves, and investing in new technologies through other parts of their companies, etc. It seems like both of you could be correct.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)Saudi Arabia has killed the fracking industry.
Now it's how many jobs will be lost.
And don't forget, the collateralized energy losses.
Billions of dollars in defaults are coming soon!
Tarheel_Dem
(31,243 posts)It's weird to see liberals worried about job losses in the "shale oil industry".
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)Well the estimates I've read add up to about 500,000 jobs.
That is a lot of unemployment payments.
A lot of food stamps and other social services.
There are no replacement jobs.
Particularly at their previous pay rates.
So cheering how the Saudis' screwed Putin is kinda short sighted.
When the junk bonds default it will upset the markets.
Those fracking jobs are gone, and not likely to return anytime soon.
What will be the impact on the petro dollar, if any?
Question: did CRomnibus protect Wall St from this kind of bubble?
eggplant
(3,914 posts)I didn't lament the loss of asbestos-related jobs, either.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,243 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)cstanleytech
(26,326 posts)which will put more into the economy because you have probably 20 to 30 million people in the US who will now have a bit more money to spend on consumer goods which means retailers will have a boom which means they will stop feeling so skin flinty on paying their workers and stop gutting their hours.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,243 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)As you know servicing debt does not grow an economy, right?
So that $750 in gas savings will go to pay down a credit card...
not into buying hard consumer goods
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)How will the working class spend their $5 they save at the pump?
And how does servicing debt grow an economy?
Paying interest on a loan grows the economy how?
Isn't rent seeking a drag on the economy?
Igel
(35,362 posts)Society's diverse so you get a diverse answer.
For those with the least income, the savings would go for buying things.
For those with more income, more income tends to pay down debt.
For those with even more income, more income goes into luxuries and towards big-ticket items.
For those with even more income than those with mere "even more income", more income goes into liquid accounts or investment paper, helping to keep interest rates (naturally) low and encourage (in a theoretically-modelled world) investment.
What we hear about is that those with least income buy stuff.
Then we hear that buying stuff is what helps make high-paying jobs. That Keynesian multiplier, after all. Oft quantified, seldom reproducibly.
The gap in the thinking is *what* those with the least income buy, the input to a multiplier that assumes "average" consumers get the money: They buy imports if they're not food, and food. Neither creates good-paying jobs in the US.
So there's the diverse answer.
In general it will help counter any inflation. Sadly, for those who dislike including the more volatile component of the inflation index, it will look like it's contributing to deflation when it's not.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)We'll repeat the Great Depression. Credit eventually runs out. You do have to actually pay for it. Using it responsibly and paying for what you buy will lead to a stronger economy in the short and long term.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)Nearly a third of that energy-related debt is now trading so poorly, it currently qualifies as being classed as distressed, indicating a high likelihood of being restructured. As Deutsche Bank put it, the tanking oil price could potentially deliver a volatility shock large enough to trigger the next wave of defaults.
Could this have a knock-on effect? Given that many areas of the market including stocks are historically overvalued, and bond market liquidity in general is being questioned (well come back to this next week some time), I wouldnt bet against it. Banks are also sitting on some loans that now cant be sold on to the wider market.
Subprime should have taught everyone that panic in one area of the market can rapidly spread to apparently unrelated ones, as the scramble for liquidity sees even quality assets being sold off.
As one credit trader tells the FT: Equities ignore at their peril what is happening in the junk bond markets. We have had a long run in credit and slowly but surely, when things turn it starts in the weakest part of the market.
http://moneyweek.com/oil-price-crash-the-start-of-something-much-bigger/
cstanleytech
(26,326 posts)artificially inflated so the ones who are guilty of that can take it and shove their loses up their ass followed a Molotov cocktail.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,243 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,243 posts)formerly unemployed KGB agent go from rags to riches? It's called A-N-N-E-X-A-T-I-O-N!!!!!!
Warpy
(111,367 posts)Oil prices were forced down to strike at the heart of ISIS, to kick their major source of funding out from under them. That's why the Saudis and the Emirates are going along with it.
TBF
(32,106 posts)that seems more timely and in line than anything else I've read here (with the side benefit that folks like Putin also take a hit).