One County Provides Preview Of China's Looming Aging Crisis
Source: KUNC / NPR
A decade from now, about 2025, experts predict that China's population will peak reaching as high as 1.4 billion and begin to steadily decline. Some of them are predicting that a shrinking, aging population could lead to a national crisis. One way to peer into the future is to visit a county in eastern China that pioneered population controls a decade before the rest of the country and is now feeling their impact. Rudong County is in Jiangsu province, on China's east coast just north of where the Yangtze River empties into the East China Sea.
Both the province and the county are known throughout China for their good schools and bright students. But school principal Miao Boquan says there aren't many of them left.
...
Meanwhile, in a nearby town in Rudong County, senior citizens sit down to dinner at their government-funded retirement home. They're bundled up against the cold, as there's no heat in winter here. Most of them have no income or children to support them.
Read more: http://www.kunc.org/post/one-county-provides-preview-chinas-looming-aging-crisis
oops
progree
(10,909 posts)not much better --
Just a few examples
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate
Going by the first column:
South Korea: 1.32, Japan 1.41, Germany 1.42, Italy 1.48, Russia 1.53, Canada 1.66, China: 1.66
Some developed with higher fertility rates
UK 1.88, USA 1.97, France 1.98
I should add this doesn't take into account immigration, which China has very little of, AFAIK.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)nations parents had so many children because death took most of the children before they were adults and they needed the living ones to take care of them in old age. That would make some sense in this situation I suppose.
One needs to ask if we are going to be much different considering the number of people either in retirement of getting close to it.
adieu
(1,009 posts)in about 20 years because of the low number of replacement kids once the older ones die off.
Currently there's about 1.5B in China. What would happen when that number drops to under 1B in about 20 years? India will then be the most populous country and China will be importing people from Singapore, Indonesia and maybe even Africa to supply workers for maintaining the country's infrastructure.
Imagine if the whole population equivalent to the United States just disappears in a generation (20 years). That's what is going to happen to China. Happening right now.
progree
(10,909 posts)Here's one
and another one projecting a 2050 population of 1.38 billion (see #9).
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/03/10-projections-for-the-global-population-in-2050/
The population of China is estimated at 1,393,783,836 as of July 1 2014. And still growing by 0.61%/year in 2015, and projected to be 1.385 billion in 2050, according to this source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population/
adieu
(1,009 posts)and they're all boys.
In terms of population control, if you have 10 males and 1 female, you get as many progenies as that one female can procreate. If you have 10 females and 1 male, the result would be as many progenies as all then females can procreate.
Hence, the one-two combination of a 1-child per family policy and virtually all of them male will cause a huge drop in population.
As it is, virtually 50% of the adult male are not and will never be married.
progree
(10,909 posts)The one child policy has been considerably relaxed and is often violated.
According to this, their total fertility rate is 1.66
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate
As for China getting workers from Singapore, Singapore's population is only a little more than 5 million, and their fertility rate is only 1.28, far less than even China's
And no, "virtually all of them male" is not true either, at least I haven't heard that one before.
Please, please cite some sources of your figures rather than your just opninionating
[font color = red]On Edit 1153p CT[/font] This source says the male to female birth rate is 1.11 to 1
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2018.html
adieu
(1,009 posts)But most were male because females were not valued.
progree
(10,909 posts)[font color = red]On Edit 1157p CT:[/font]. The U.S. male to female birth rate is 1.05 to 1, according to the same source.
Kurska
(5,739 posts)In that slightly more boys are born than girls. Though gender based abortions play a heavy role, this trend is also seen in countries where there are very few abortions and where ultrasounds to determine the sex of the baby isn't very common (though to a lesser extent). In fact, slightly more fetuses are male than female aswell.
The reason seems to be hard coded into our reproductive process. There is actually slightly better than .5 chance that a fetus will be male. This is an evolutionary strategy our species evolved because males only have one X chromosome. Females essentially have a spare chromosome (though that is a vast over simplification, I will admit), that in many cases can pick up the slack or replace the work of the genes on the other X is they are damaged or defective. Males only have one X chromosomes so sex chromosome based disorders or problems effect them at higher rates. This leads to slightly more pregnancies of males ending is miscarriages and males having higher rates of many possibly fatal genetic disorders. Mother nature compensates for this by having slightly more males born than females.
Though gender based abortions play a huge role in the most drastic gender imbalances, they aren't the only factor.
progree
(10,909 posts)In the United States, the sex ratios at birth over the period 19702002 were 1.05 for the white non-Hispanic population, 1.04 for Mexican Americans, 1.03 for African Americans and Indians, and 1.07 for mothers of Chinese or Filipino ethnicity.[7] Among Western European countries ca. 2001, the ratios ranged from 1.04 in Belgium to 1.07 in Switzerland,[8] Italy,[9] Ireland[10] and Portugal. In the aggregated results of 56 Demographic and Health Surveys[11] in African countries, the ratio is 1.03, though there is also considerable country-to-country variation.[12]
Even in the absence of sex selection practices, a range of "normal" sex ratios at birth of between 103 to 108 boys per 100 girls has been observed in different economically developed countries,[13] and among different ethnic and racial groups within a given country.