Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession
By Simon Kennedy Nov 10, 2014 8:22 AM ET
In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didnt like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.
Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble. By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread to virtually all financial markets. In October 2007, it saw imminent recession -- the slump began two months later.
The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jeromes grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.
That call runs counter to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The two banks posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run.
Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn, chairman David Levy told clients in an Oct. 23 edition of a monthly forecasting report, which at over 60 years purports to be the oldest of its kind.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-10/predictors-of-29-crash-see-65-chance-of-2015-recession.html
cprise
(8,445 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)The last time before this one was when he said the DOW would go down to 6000 around 2011/2012. And, that wasn't the first time he wrong about predicting what the stock market would do.
I agree with him on almost everything, but he's the last person I would take advice from when it comes to predicting the economy.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)There have been *literally dozens* of predictions of a major downturn since 2010 that I've seen, and NOT one has been all that accurate.