The Trouble With the Genetically Modified Future
The Trouble With the Genetically Modified Future
Nov 16, 2014
By Mark Buchanan
Like many people, I've long wondered about the safety of genetically modified organisms. They've become so ubiquitous that they account for about 80 percent of the corn grown in the U.S., yet we know almost nothing about what damage might ensue if the transplanted genes spread through global ecosystems.
How can so many smart people, including many scientists, be so sure that there's nothing to worry about? Judging from a new paper by several researchers from New York University, including "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb, they can't and shouldn't.
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Not all risks are so easily defined. In some cases, as Taleb explained in "The Black Swan," experience and ordinary risk analysis are inadequate to understand the probability or scale of a devastating outcome. GMOs are an excellent example. Despite all precautions, genes from modified organisms inevitably invade natural populations, and from there have the potential to spread uncontrollably through the genetic ecosystem. There is no obvious mechanism to localize the damage.
Biologists still don't understand how genes interact within a single organism, let alone how genes might spread among organisms in complex ecosystems. Only in the last 20 years have scientists realized how much bacteria rely on the so-called horizontal flow of genes -- directly from one bacterium to another, without any reproduction taking place. This seems to be one of the most effective ways that antibiotic resistance spreads among different species. Similar horizontal exchange might be hugely important for plants and animals. No one yet knows.
In other words, scientists are being irresponsibly short-sighted if they judge the safety of GMOs based on the scattered experience of the past couple decades. It's akin to how, ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, analysts looked at 20 years of rising house prices and assumed they would always go up. The honest approach would be to admit that we understand almost nothing about the safety of GMOs, except that whatever happens is pretty likely to spread.
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bananas
(27,509 posts)Nassim Nicholas Taleb
November 17 at 4:36am ·
Arguing with biologists about risk is exactly like arguing with George W. Bush about algebraic geometry.
This is by Mark Buchanan, a physicist.
http://bv.ms/1vfU8oK
bananas
(27,509 posts)Because they didn't know about prions.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)bananas
(27,509 posts)<snip>
Does Cooking Food Kill the Prion That Causes Mad Cow Disease?
Common methods to eliminate disease-causing organisms in food, like heat, do not affect prions.
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jeff47
(26,549 posts)A prion is just a protein. If you denature that protein via heat, it no longer works.
The problem is you have to heat it enough to denature the protein. "Rare" and "very Rare" isn't hot enough.
bananas
(27,509 posts)<snip>
Temperature requirements for all incinerators
The gas in the chamber must be at the required temperature (850°C for 2 seconds, 1100°C for 0.2 seconds) before you can start incinerating ABPs.
You must record temperatures during burning (either single chamber or secondary chamber). You should keep these records for 2 years.
You must do this either automatically throughout the burn cycle, or manually, every 2 hours for 10% of incinerations.
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Rules for dealing with carcasses when livestock dies on your farm, including animal incineration and testing cattle for BSE
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Ban on burying or burning fallen stock in the open
The burial or burning of fallen stock in the open is banned due to the risk of spreading disease through residues in the soil, groundwater or air pollution. This ban also covers ABPs, including afterbirth and stillborn animals.
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On-farm incineration of animal by-products
Incinerator plants that only burn animal carcasses or unprocessed parts of carcasses must be approved by the local AHVLA, under the Animal By-Products Regulations (ABPR). You can find more detail on which ABPs can be incinterated and how they must be incinerated and composted on the page on composting and incinerating animal by-products in the guide on dealing with animal by-products.
Incinerators which burn any other ABPs - eg waste food, manure, bone meal, tallow or other waste not of animal origin - must be approved under the WID, even if these incinerators also burn animal carcasses or parts of carcasses. Although the AHVLA is not responsible for approving these incinerators, it inspects them to make sure they comply with ABP requirements for record keeping, pest control, transportation and collection of ABPs.
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jeff47
(26,549 posts)Incineration is also handling other problems, and thus requires a higher temperature. ETA: For example, a cooked carcass still attracts disease-causing organisms once it cools. That's why you can't leave a cooked hamburger on the counter for a day and safely eat it.
Think about cooking an egg. Egg white is protein and water. It goes from semi-clear liquid to solid white thanks to heat denaturing the proteins. There isn't a way to get it to go from solid white back to semi-clear liquid.
Similarly, beef changes drastically when it's cooked. A raw steak is nothing like a medium steak. That's due to the denaturing of the proteins in the steak (along with some water loss). But a raw steak and the center of a rare steak are somewhat similar.
If you get the prion hot enough, it unfolds just like every other protein. "Hot enough" depends on the protein involved. Rare isn't hot enough to denature the "Mad cow disease" prion.
bananas
(27,509 posts)A 2010 paper points out "only recently has this once heretical hypothesis been widely accepted by the scientific community":
Trends Biochem Sci. Author manuscript; available in PMC Mar 1, 2012.
Published in final edited form as:
Trends Biochem Sci. Mar 2011; 36(3): 151158.
Published online Dec 3, 2010. doi: 10.1016/j.tibs.2010.11.001
PMCID: PMC3056934
NIHMSID: NIHMS257777
Prion Hypothesis: The end of the Controversy?
Claudio Soto
Abstract
Forty-three years have passed since it was first proposed that a protein could be the sole component of the infectious agent responsible for the enigmatic prion diseases. Many discoveries have strongly supported the prion hypothesis, but only recently has this once heretical hypothesis been widely accepted by the scientific community. In the past 3 years, researchers have achieved the holy grail demonstration that infectious material can be generated in vitro using completely defined components. These breakthroughs have proven that a misfolded protein is the active component of the infectious agent and that the propagation of the disease and its unique features depends on the self-replication of the infectious folding of the prion protein. In spite of these important discoveries, it remains unclear whether another molecule besides the misfolded prion protein might be an essential element of the infectious agent. Future research promises to reveal many more intriguing features about the rogue prions.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)A prion re-folds the "natural" protein to make a new prion.
Destroy the prion, and it can't re-fold the natural protein.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)First, you'd have to come up with a mechanism for that to happen. While you can get GMO corn to reproduce with non-GMO corn without human intervention, you can't get those genes into other species without human intervention. For a gene to "spread through global ecosystems", you'd have to have a mechanism to do that.
The lack of a mechanism by which such a thing can happen.
Actually, we do know. Because no one has found a way for horizontal gene transfer to work in species more advanced than bacteria.
In bacteria, there are things such as the F plasmid, which is a virus-like hunk of DNA. When it infects a bacteria, it causes that bacteria to replicate the plasmid, and then attempt to inject it into other bacteria. This works in bacteria because their cells do not have a nucleus like eukaryotes (everything that isn't a bacteria, virus or prion).
That separation in eukaryotes means the F plasmid's reproductive mechanism doesn't work. Just getting into the cell isn't enough, you have to get into the right part of the cell and there's a membrane in the way. Some viruses are able to get into the nucleus, but they turn around and destroy the cell by making more viruses.
But that's just getting into the cell. You next have to get the inserted genes back out of the GMO cell. And that's not gonna happen. Even in viruses like influenza, which is notorious for their frequency of picking up host DNA, they don't extract functional genes from the host.
Your lack of understanding is not the same as scientists having a lack of understanding.
What it comes down to is the people talking about dangers of GMOs haven't managed to come up with a mechanism by which their predictions could work. They've skipped over that part and start with the assumption that such a mechanism exists, and then look at what could happen!
It's a little like saying astronomers need to be more worried about gamma ray bursts wiping out life on Earth when none of the stars close enough for a GRB to be dangerous can produce a GRB. "But what if everything we know about physics is wrong?!?!" isn't a good argument. Come up with a way that those stars could produce one first. You'll win a Nobel prize and go down in history next to Watson and Crick.
cprise
(8,445 posts)The corporate-centered interpretation of biology (organisms are machines with specific/predictable buttons you can press at will) belongs on the trash heap with Lysenko-ism. Biotech is much more about engineering and finance than actual science.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)The actual science Ecology, not the "throw up your hands and say mother nature is impossible to understand" version that is so common here.
cprise
(8,445 posts)Those self-regulating darlings.
The only "unintended consequences" their bosses and financiers are worried about are the economic kind market fundamentalists inveigh against. And its why researchers working in biotech use terms like biodiversity and biosphere so infrequently.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Those evil biotech bastards think there's only 4 nucleotides in DNA. And they're daring to teach that to our children!!!!!
You also won't find them referring to "cells" either. They'll not talk about ribosomes when they talk about a gene being expressed by a protein. They won't explain that a genome is made from DNA either. Some terms are so basic that they are assumed to be understood by the people reading your paper.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)fasttense
(17,301 posts)Crossbreeding. The virus that caused the great Irish potato famine is also the same one that causes blight in tomatoes today. My tomatillos can sometimes cross pollinate with my tomatoes and vice versa. My chard contaminated my beet seeds one year. And many a squash seed has given me odd looking fruit. Then there are the hybrids I keep seeds from and plant to find they breed true.
I could go on and on. Each plant attracts a different bug which is eaten by a different animal. There are so many different ways things in nature, on farms and in gardens interact and mingle. One change in one creature causes changes in others. To believe that the mass planting of a new organism would not modify the patterns in nature is to believe in the impossible.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Your tomatillos and tomatoes are either the same species (different subspecies) or a different but closely-related species (depends on who's drawing the "family tree" . That's why they can cross-pollinate.
Your tomatillos can't cross-pollinate with corn. So how would you get GMO genes from corn into your tomatillos?
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)I'll trust the scientists over the hysterical Luddites.
cprise
(8,445 posts)Mark Buchanan, a physicist and Bloomberg View columnist, is the author of the book "Forecast: What Physics, Meteorology and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics." A former editor of Nature and now a columnist for Nature Physics...
Of course, he didn't make Monsanto rich so what does he know?