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truth2power

(8,219 posts)
Tue Jan 13, 2015, 09:33 PM Jan 2015

Dmitry Orlov - "Peculiarities of Russian National Character"

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/01/peculiarities-of-russian-national.html#more

This is a lengthy article, but well worth reading, especially for Orlov's droll humor regarding the Russian way of dealing with those who come to destroy their country and steal their resources.

A cautionary tale, if only the West would listen.

Excerpt:

Recent events, such as the overthrow of the government in Ukraine, the secession of Crimea and its decision to join the Russian Federation, the subsequent military campaign against civilians in Eastern Ukraine, western sanctions against Russia, and, most recently, the attack on the ruble, have caused a certain phase transition to occur within Russian society, which, I believe, is very poorly, if at all, understood in the west. This lack of understanding puts Europe at a significant disadvantage in being able to negotiate an end to this crisis.


Following his analysis of the Russian character Orlov concludes by telling us where all this is bound to lead:

Conclusions

This part almost writes itself. It's a recipe for disaster, so I'll write it out as a recipe.

...

3. Impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Watch in dismay as your exporters start losing money when in instant retaliation Russia blocks your agricultural exports. Keep in mind that this is a country that, thanks to surviving a long string of invasion attempts, traditionally relies on potentially hostile foreign states to finance its defense against them. If they fail to do so, then it will resort to other ways of deterring them, such as freezing them out. “No gas for NATO members” seems like a catchy slogan. Hope and pray that it doesn't catch on in Moscow.

4. Mount an attack on their national currency, causing it to lose part of its value on par with a lower price of oil. Watch in dismay as Russian officials laugh all the way to the central bank because the lower ruble has caused state revenues to remain unchanged in spite of lower oil prices, erasing a potential budget deficit. Watch in dismay as your exporters go bankrupt because their exports are priced out of the Russian market. Keep in mind, Russia has no national debt to speak of, runs a negligible budget deficit, has plentiful foreign currency reserves and ample gold reserves. Also keep in mind that your banks have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to Russian businesses (which you have just deprived of access to your banking system by imposing sanctions). Hope and pray that Russia doesn't put a freeze on debt repayments to western banks until the sanctions are lifted, since that would blow up your banks.


Warms my heart!

I'll wait for the usual suspects to show up with, I'm sure, their reasoned arguments in opposition.
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Demeter

(85,373 posts)
1. I support the article's premises
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 12:14 AM
Jan 2015

which mesh with my own perceptions of my Slavic family and acquaintances.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
2. And, an interesting bit at the end....
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 11:10 AM
Jan 2015

From the article:

But now comes a surprise—an underreported one, to say the least. Russia has just offered the EU a deal. If the EU refuses to join the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US (which, by the way, would hurt it economically) then it can join the Customs Union with Russia. Why freeze yourselves out when we can all freeze out Washington instead? This is the restitution Russia would accept for the EU's offensive behavior with regard to the Ukraine and the sanctions. Coming from a customs state, it is a most generous offer. A lot went into making it: the recognition that the EU poses no military threat to Russia and not much of an economic one either; the fact that the European countries are all very cute and tiny and lovable, and make tasty cheeses and sausages; the understanding that their current crop of national politicians is feckless and beholden to Washington, and that they need a big push in order to understand where their nations' true interests lie... Will the EU accept this offer, or will they accept Galicia as a new member and “freeze out”?

truth2power

(8,219 posts)
3. Yes, understanding where their nations' true interests lie..
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 12:35 PM
Jan 2015

Someone must have some truly damning pictures of these EU leaders, is all I can figure.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. America's Going to Lose the Oil Price War
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:29 PM
Jan 2015
This one is an interesting take too.

By Leonid Bershidsky

The financial debacle that has befallen Russia as the price of Brent crude dropped 50 percent in the last four months has overshadowed the one that potentially awaits the U.S. shale industry in 2015. It's time to heed it, because Saudi Arabia and other major Middle Eastern oil producers are unlikely to blink and cut output, and the price is now approaching a level where U.S. production will begin shutting down.

Representatives of the leading members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries have been saying for weeks they would not pump less oil no matter how low its price goes. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi has said even $20 per barrel wouldn't trigger a change of heart. Initial reactions in the U.S. were confident: U.S. oil producers were resilient enough; they would keep producing even at very low sale prices because the marginal cost of pumping from existing wells was even lower; OPEC would lose because its members' social safety nets depends on the oil price; and anyway, OPEC was dead.

That optimism was reminiscent of the cavalier Russian reaction at the beginning of the price slide: In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin said "none of the serious players" was interested in an oil price below $80. This complacency has taken Russia to the brink: On Friday, Fitch downgraded its credit rating to a notch above junk, and it'll probably go lower as the ruble continues to devalue in line with the oil slump.

It's generally a bad idea to act cocky in a price war. By definition, everybody is going to get hurt, and any victory can only be relative. The winner is he who can take the most pain. My tentative bet so far is on the Saudis -- and, though it might seem counterintuitive, the Russians.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-12/americas-going-to-lose-the-oil-price-war

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
5. Merkel: Ukraine summit still possible, but unclear when
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:30 PM
Jan 2015

BERLIN (AP) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she isn't giving up hope of organizing a summit with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, but she can't say how long that might take after tentative plans for a meeting this week were scrapped.

Foreign ministers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine failed on Monday to achieve enough progress for a proposed summit of the country's leaders in Kazakhstan to go ahead.

Merkel said Wednesday that the idea of a summit remains on the table but "there must be enough hope of real results."

She said: "We're not there yet but we are working on it with all our energy. However, I don't know how long that could take ... it depends on all parties involved."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GERMANY_UKRAINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-01-14-08-22-15

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
12. Mogherini seen as proposing ‘business as usual’ with Russia
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:52 PM
Jan 2015

The EU foreign service has proposed lifting sanctions and restarting the full spectrum of Russia co-operation if it stops “destabilising” east Ukraine.

The ideas come in a four-page paper circulated by foreign relations chief Federica Mogherini to member states on Wednesday (14 January) ahead of “strategic” talks by foreign ministers next Monday.

It suggests EU sanctions should be bundled into two packages: measures related to the annexation of Crimea and others linked to “destabilisation of eastern Ukraine”.

It notes the Crimea sanctions - blacklists of low-level officials and a ban on EU investments - should “remain in force as long as the annexation persists”.

https://euobserver.com/foreign/127204

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Russia Doesn’t Want to Force Ukraine Into Default, Medvedev Says
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:30 PM
Jan 2015

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Russia isn’t seeking a Ukrainian default and will decide soon whether to demand early repayment by its neighbor of a $3 billion bond.

Russia has the right to seek payment before the debt matures in December because Ukraine’s state borrowing has breached 60 percent of gross domestic product, violating the bond’s terms, Medvedev told a conference in Moscow today, reiterating Jan. 10 remarks by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

“We don’t want a Ukrainian default, worsening the plight of the Ukrainian economy,” Medvedev said at the Gaidar Economic Forum. “Still, debts have to be paid, both government as well as those of companies.”

Russia bought the bond as part of a 2013 rescue package agreed with Ukraine’s then-leader Viktor Yanukovych, an ally of President Vladimir Putin who was ousted two months later. The government in Kiev, which is facing the worst recession since 2009 amid a pro-Russian insurgency in its easternmost regions, needs $15 billion on top of a $17 billion international bailout to stay afloat, the European Union estimates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/russia-doesn-t-want-to-force-ukraine-into-default-medvedev-says.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
10. Authorities will not cancel free ruble conversion — Medvedev
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:37 PM
Jan 2015

MOSCOW, January 14. /TASS/. The Russian ruble will remain a convertible currency, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at the Gaidar Economic Forum in Moscow on Wednesday, adding that the Central Bank’s current policies were correct.

“The authorities will not cancel the free conversion of the ruble,” he said. “True, it might be possible to freeze the exchange rate and thereby restore the black market of foreign currencies, to give currency to importers upon request depending on arbitrary decisions by this or that official or on friendly relations with them, but all that would mean systematic destruction of the market,” Medvedev said.

Medvedev acknowledged that “many factors, such as the oil prices and the sanctions, are working against the ruble.” The fluctuations of the ruble’s exchange rate were causing harm to companies, banks and ordinary people, he acknowledged.

“Nevertheless, I believe that the Central Bank’s policy at the moment is correct,” Medvedev said. “We are not going to squander the foreign exchange reserves. We have enough economic mechanisms to keep the ruble stable. Moreover, even in the context of an adverse environment we still have a balance of payments surplus, which is the chief fundamental factor for establishing a balanced exchange rate of the national currency,” the prime minister said.

http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/771092

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
13. Pro-Russian Forces Enter Donetsk Airport As Ukrainian Military Loses Ground
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 03:29 PM
Jan 2015

The Ukrainian military has lost part of Donetsk airport Wednesday after four days of intense artillery bombardment from advancing pro-Russian fighters, according to reports from the Ukrainian Independent Information Agency (UNIAN), citing Hromadske TV, a Ukrainian television channel. Ukrainian artillery support was able to slow the rebels' advance Tuesday, keeping them within 450 yards of the airport's newest terminal, but fresh bombardment overnight has allowed separatist fighters access to one-third of the terminal where intense fighting has continued.

A soldier of the 80th Airmobile Brigade told the Ukrainian TV channel that two posts in the terminal were destroyed by Russian tanks, while another was purposefully blown up by Ukrainian fighters to create a barrier. "The area is lost," the soldier talking to Hromadske.tv said. "There must be a thorough fight back to secure the positions where the Russians are: the old terminal, the [monastery] and other positions."

Donetsk airport has been the epicenter of fighting in the region, despite a ceasefire being signed in September. On Tuesday the air traffic control tower, which was a symbol of the fight over the airport, was destroyed prior to the pro-Russian advance overnight, according to UNIAN. The Ukrainian military was able to support soldiers trapped in the airport with artillery fire, but that offered only a brief respite as the rebels attacked from two sides in a flanking maneuver.

As the separatists moved to within 450 yards of the airport Tuesday, the Ukrainian military was offered a 5 p.m. ultimatum to vacate the airport. The deadline came and went as rebels advanced inside the terminal.

http://www.ibtimes.com/pro-russian-forces-enter-donetsk-airport-ukrainian-military-loses-ground-1783636

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
7. Stoltenberg: "NATO doesn't want confrontation with Russia"
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:32 PM
Jan 2015

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, called on Russia to respect the borders of Ukraine on Wednesday at a press conference in Berlin:

"We call on Russia to respect the Minsk agreements, to use all its influence on the separatists to make them respect the ceasefire and to withdraw the support for the separatists," Stoltenberg said.

"NATO does not seek confrontation with Russia. NATO aspires for a more constructive and cooperative relationship with Russia. But to be able to establish that, Russia must want it, too," he added.

Stoltenberg also praised the German involvement in NATO, stressing that Germany will play "the leading role" in establishing NATO's fast-response troops, which is the most important NATO response to the Ukraine crisis.

http://www.dw.de/stoltenberg-nato-doesnt-want-confrontation-with-russia/a-18189982?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
8. Russian Energy Min: no reason to change gas deal with Ukraine beyond March
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:34 PM
Jan 2015

Jan 14 (Reuters) - Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday there were no reasons to change terms for gas deliveries to Ukraine once current deal expires at the end of March.

Maros Sefcovic, the European Union's Energy Commissioner who was meeting Novak in Moscow, said the bloc was ready to continue as an "honest broker" in gas talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Sefcovic also said Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine should not be cut even if new pipelines bypassing the ex-Soviet state are built. (Reporting by Ekaterina Golubkova; Writign by Lidia Kelly, Editing by Gabriela Baczynska)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/russia-crisis-ukraine-gas-idUSR4N0PQ02N20150114?rpc=401

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Gazprom warns EU to link to Turkey pipeline or lose Russian gas
Wed Jan 14, 2015, 01:35 PM
Jan 2015

(MOSCOW) - Russia's Gazprom giant on Wednesday urged the European Union to link up to its planned energy pipeline to Turkey or lose the gas that now transits Ukraine.

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller reminded the new European Commissioner for Energy Union, Maros Sefcovic that the South Stream project to deliver gas to Europe through Ukraine has been scrapped.

Hence, "the Turkish Stream is the only route along which 63 billion cubic metres of Russian gas can be supplied, which at present transit Ukraine. There are no other options," he said.

As relations between the European Union and Russia sank to a new low since the Cold War over Moscow's role in the Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin in December said the South Stream project had been scrapped.

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/ukraine-russia-gas.zhb

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