Analysis: Yemen Ground Operation Carries Major Risks
By HAMZA HENDAWI
Associated Press
CAIRO (AP) -- Saudi Arabia and its allies plan an ambitious ground offensive on multiple fronts in Yemen. It may be inevitable if they want to defeat Iranian-backed Shiite rebels but it also carries enormous risks, from the inhospitable, mountainous terrain and a possible guerrilla war to al-Qaida militants waiting in the wings.
The first main objective of a ground assault would be to secure the southern port of Aden and its immediate vicinity to allow the return of Western- and Gulf-backed President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who fled the Arabian Sea city last month in the face of a push south by the rebels. There, the troops would begin the task of building a new Yemeni army, replacing a military fragmented by the conflict.
The more daunting part of the plan is for Saudi-led forces to cross the border from Saudi Arabia into Yemen, according to Egyptian and Yemeni military and security officials briefed on planning. That means entering a mountainous landscape that is the home stronghold of the Shiite rebels, known as Houthis. There in Saada province, they have battled Yemen's military to a standstill in six wars over the past decade.
The ultimate goal is not to annihilate the Houthis but to push their fighters back to their home provinces of Saada and Omran in the north and force them to negotiate. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss the plans.
Officials have said the offensive will only start when airstrikes - a week old on Wednesday - sufficiently weaken the Houthis and their allies, military and police units loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh, the longtime autocrat who was removed in 2012 and replaced by Hadi. The Houthis swept out of the north last year to capture the capital Sanaa in September in a whirlwind offensive backed by Saleh's troops that swallowed much of northern Yemen.
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_YEMEN_PERILS_AHEAD_ANALYSIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-04-01-15-28-28
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The level of interest in Beijing on the developments in Yemen is apparently very high. This is only to be expected, arguably, considering that China depends on the Gulf countries for half of all its crude oil imports, apart from having wide-ranging relationships with the countries of the region, which have been steadily expanding and deepening. The Road and Belt initiative gives an added strategic dimension insofar as the Silk Route passes through the Red Sea.
Indeed, China will be hard-pressed to take sides in a regional divide. This makes China a stakeholder of sorts, especially when Yemen comes up at the UN Security Council in a matter of time.
Xinhua reported today on the current visit of the Pakistani defense delegation to Saudi Arabia, quoting Defence Minister Khawaja Asif to the effect that Pakistan will provide all resources if there is any threat to Saudi Arabia, but at the same time, Pakistan also seeks an end to conflicts in the Muslim world. The report said PM Nawaz Sharif would be contacting the leadership of brotherly countries (which, presumably, includes Iran as well.) The report conveys the impression that Pakistan is toeing a cautious line between devotion to its Saudi benefactor and wariness about taking sides in a sectarian strife.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)The Saudi Arabia Gov is Sunni
About 90 percent of Iranians practice Shi'ism, the official religion of Iran.
By contrast, most Arab states in the Middle East are predominantly Sunni.
Important ingredient of the warring factions in the Middle East, but rarely mentioned in MSM.