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swag

(26,487 posts)
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 01:27 AM Dec 2015

How One Woman Tried To Warn Everyone About The Housing Crash

The 22 minute audio interview with Bill McBride of "Calculated Risk" is fantastic

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/odd-lots-calculated-risk-doris-dungey

Joe Weisenthal
Tracy Alloway

The release of the film The Big Short has sparked renewed interest in the origins of the U.S. financial crisis and, of course, the people who saw it coming long before everything collapsed.

The movie, and the book on which it is based, focus on prescient hedge fund managers such as John Paulson, Steve Eisman and Michael Burry—who not only called the housing crash but came up with clever ways of profiting from the decline in home values. It wasn't just a handful of smart Wall Streeters, however, who foresaw the housing bubble and ensuing crisis, and it wasn't just men.

In the middle of the last decade, a blog called Calculated Risk became a must-read for its obsessive coverage of the economy and its warnings about the overheating housing market. During the 2006-08 period, Calculated Risk had two authors: One was the blog's founder, Bill McBride, and the other was "Tanta," a pseudonymous mortgage industry professional who was trying to blow the whistle on the problems she saw emanating from her industry.

Tanta's posts, which were extraordinarily detailed, good humored, and prescient, became must-reads for a host of bloggers, traditional journalists, and Wall Street professionals trying to get a handle on the crisis. Sadly, the world found out her name only in December 2008, when she died of cancer. But her influence remained enormous. And the world was fortunate that in the final two years of her life, she produced such an extraordinary wealth of information detailing exactly how the mortgage industry worked and produced the mess that was the housing bubble.

. . . more

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How One Woman Tried To Warn Everyone About The Housing Crash (Original Post) swag Dec 2015 OP
Thank You For Sharing These Truths cantbeserious Dec 2015 #1
K&R / eom fleabiscuit Dec 2015 #2
Some of us on the Economy forum foresaw it. Warpy Dec 2015 #3
Yup, it puts me in a quandry TexasBushwhacker Dec 2015 #6
If you're rock stable and own a business that isn't going anywhere, buy Warpy Dec 2015 #7
Hedging against rising rents TexasBushwhacker Dec 2015 #9
Looking Forward to Seeing the Movie gordyfl Dec 2015 #4
The book is sensational. Lewis is been called a genius in one of the blurbs, Joe Chi Minh Dec 2015 #8
kevin philips wrote a book that warned us, american theocracy. SADLY it was in part 3, pt 1 pansypoo53219 Dec 2015 #5

Warpy

(111,316 posts)
3. Some of us on the Economy forum foresaw it.
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 03:12 AM
Dec 2015

A few people even got the timing right. We knew the toxic derivatives were in most banking and pension portfolios in the US. We were unaware how far they'd infected foreign banks and governments.

It's going to happen again. Nothing was done to prevent it.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,208 posts)
6. Yup, it puts me in a quandry
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 12:13 PM
Dec 2015

Housing prices here in Houston are climbing at a higher rate than they were in 2006. Now that oil prices are down to less than $40 a barrel, we're having layoffs and layoffs mean foreclosures. But mortgage interest rates are expected to climb to 5.4% in the next 2 years. So, to buy or not to buy, that is the question.

Warpy

(111,316 posts)
7. If you're rock stable and own a business that isn't going anywhere, buy
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 12:35 PM
Dec 2015

If rents are rising, buy as a hedge against rising rents.

I was in the latter position when I bought in 1996 and rent exceeded my PITI within 2 years, so it worked out.

Houston is a tough market, almost as bad as Florida for boom and bust cycles. If you want a house as an investment, look elsehwere. There are investments that provide a larger bang for the buck than boom and bust housing and you don't have to do things like shell out thousands for new roofs and heating systems for them.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,208 posts)
9. Hedging against rising rents
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 01:55 PM
Dec 2015

I'll be 59 next month. I'm just now making as much now as I did in 2003. I blew through what little retirement savings I had during periods of unemployment and disability, so I'm not really planning on retiring until I just can't work anymore, hopefully not before 70 so I can maximize my SS. I'm a bookkeeper with a permanent job with flexible hours, plus a couple of private accounts on the side. I hope to add a few more on the side to maximize my income and my flexibility. I don't want to work as a Walmart greeter when I'm 75.

As much as I would like the low maintenance lifestyle of a condo/townhome, they just do not hold their value in Houston unless you buy something really high end and I can't afford that. The maintenance fees in the nicer complexes can cost $400+ per month. I've seen some as high as $700.

So hopefully, I hoping to find something I can pay off by the time I'm 70ish. Then I'll just have property taxes and maintenance. And hopefully it won't be too far from work. I'm stuck where I work for a couple of years at least. In the meantime, I like the apartment complex I'm in. It's older, but well maintained, in a low crime area and only a 15 to 20 minute drive to work.

gordyfl

(598 posts)
4. Looking Forward to Seeing the Movie
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 04:15 AM
Dec 2015

I plan on going to the movies this week to watch "The Big Short".
A movie about credit default swaps that's getting great reviews. Wow!

Joe Chi Minh

(15,229 posts)
8. The book is sensational. Lewis is been called a genius in one of the blurbs,
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 01:17 PM
Dec 2015

and it's probably not an exaggeration. He is brilliant.

The opening chapter of his book, Liar's poker, reads like a Spaghetti Western. Brilliant. For that scene, it might be an idea to have a narrator, like a Greek chorus, explaining in hushed tones, who's who and what's going on.

pansypoo53219

(20,986 posts)
5. kevin philips wrote a book that warned us, american theocracy. SADLY it was in part 3, pt 1
Sat Dec 26, 2015, 04:16 AM
Dec 2015

VERY GOOD, pt 3 is meh. my e-pal sent me the book and i was yelling & making notes in the margin. i recommend it to MAINLY republicans. written by a republican. heck, i said it was a bubble on my blog around 2004.

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