President Bashar Al-Assad And His Russian And Iranian Allies Now Have The Upper Hand In Syria

After five years of war and a quarter-million dead, President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies now have the upper hand in Syria, and they’ve seeking to drive home a growing battlefield advantage rather than negotiate.

In the past week, the United Nations has tried to get peace talks under way in Geneva, European leaders met in London to seek ways to halt a refugee influx that’s playing political havoc across the continent. But those events looked like sideshows to the action unfolding in northern Syria, where Assad’s forces -- backed by pro-Iranian fighters and reinforced from the air by Russian planes -- are moving closer to recapturing Aleppo and winning the most decisive victory of the war.

Gains by Assad and his allies in the past month have squeezed overland supply lines to Turkey that may represent the last bulwark against defeat for the rebels in northern Syria. Tens of thousands of refugees have already fled toward Turkey, which is hosting German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday to discuss the crisis. To the west, another opposition stronghold in Idlib is also under threat from government forces.

Russian air power is “allowing Assad forces to advance against previously formidable foes,” said Jennifer Cafarella, Syria analyst at the Washington-based Institute for Study of War. “The regime has achieved a decisive advantage in Aleppo.”

That doesn’t mean the war is over, or even likely to end anytime soon. Syria has already witnessed sieges that lasted years. Also, Islamic State still holds swaths of eastern Syria, and may gain new recruits from rebels losing ground further west. But the conflict is narrowing toward a contest between Assad and the jihadists: opposition groups labeled as more moderate, and backed by Western powers and their Middle Eastern allies, face being squeezed out.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-07/tipping-point-in-syria-as-russian-air-power-turns-tide-for-assad