Democrats Best Bet to Retake the House? Follow the Sun
There has been no shortage of reports that President Trump is still very popular in the bars and diners of the old industrial towns that decided the 2016 presidential election.
But if you want to meet the voters who will decide the biggest political story of the 2018 congressional elections, you might have to fly right over the blue-collar workers of Youngstown, Ohio, and go talk to the real housewives of Orange County, Calif.
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Darrell Issa, who represents the California coast from southern Orange County almost to La Jolla, is probably the nations most vulnerable incumbent. Thats based on factors that tend to predict which districts are likeliest to be competitive like the result of his last election (he won by just 1 point) and how the district voted in recent presidential contests.
By the same measures, the 24th-most vulnerable Republican is Dana Rohrabacher, whose district is immediately north of Mr. Issas stretching up the Orange County coast from Laguna Beach to Sunset Beach. In between, Ed Royce and Mimi Walters represent the 13th- and 20th-most vulnerable districts.
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But Orange County is not an outlier. Across the nation, the most vulnerable Republican incumbents among the 50 or so most competitive seats tend to be in relatively well-educated, metropolitan districts with above-average Hispanic populations. Its the opposite of most of the 2016 presidential battleground states, which were whiter, less educated and far less Hispanic than the country as a whole.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/upshot/democrats-best-bet-for-house-control-is-following-the-sun.html
angstlessk
(11,862 posts)We can only hope and VOTE!
BumRushDaShow
(129,448 posts)There are gerrymandered districts here in PA that were still close in terms of votes tipping them to R. These are the places (e.g., 7th & 8th congressional) that need to be targeted and include counties that either voted for Clinton or were close.