Trump and the global disorder

Pierre Rousset is a member of the New Anti-Capitalist Party in France and a leader of the Fourth International. He wrote this analysis at the end of February based on discussions in preparation for the next World Congress, which started with the question of the impact of Donald Trump's election on the geopolitical situation. This article was published in English at International Viewpoint, and was slightly edited for publication in the U.S.

THE ACCESSION of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States most likely represents a turning point in geopolitical disorder and global instability. However, it is too early to measure its consequences. Trump himself and a large part of his team have no political past in government that would offer a reliable point of reference. Presidential power is limited in the U.S. (much more so than in France!) by the powers of the Congress, the judiciary and the states, as evidenced by the trial of strength after the decree prohibiting travel by nationals of seven Muslim-majority countries--even those who had a residence permit or were residents--the ban was suspended by judges.

Therefore, we cannot base a judgment on just the vengeful tweets, phone calls and peremptory statements in which Trump specializes--nor on the many corrections, sometimes made in haste: on Taiwan and the One China policy, on Russia in Eastern Europe, etc. It is nevertheless necessary to start now to locate the major issues that are being or may be affected by the constitution of the new U.S. administration. We are talking here only of the international implications; the consequences of his election in the United States itself will not be discussed here.

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Trump and Instability

The election of Donald Trump is in itself a new factor of international instability. Indeed, it was neither intended nor desired by the dominant sectors of the American bourgeoisie: Control over the electoral process escaped them. That this could have happened in the principal imperialist country is a matter of great concern for the rulers in the rest of the world. How can you foresee anything when U.S. governance becomes so random?

Trump's initial measures have increased this concern: the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP), the criticism of NATO, and so on. The frameworks of cooperation between allied states and bourgeoisies seem to be threatened by an administration that appears unilateralist. The meaning of the slogan "America First" would then become "America Alone." The multiplication of bilateral agreements--where the U.S. is in a position of strength in relation to its interlocutors--would take the place of multilateral agreements.

Read more: https://socialistworker.org/2017/04/07/trump-and-the-global-disorder