$200 Oil and the Moscow-Beijing Alliance {bremmer & roubini}

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/09/200_oil_roubini_bremmer




It's a mixed bag these days. Europe appears to have arrested its fall into the abyss and the U.S. economy is finally looking up. But with a looming consensus that war with Iran is in the offing and Putin's recent return to power in Russia, geopolitical chaos lurks around the corner. Foreign Policy once again turned to Nouriel Roubini -- who's always good for a little doom and gloom -- and Ian Bremmer to make sense of the ticking time bombs. And they didn't hold back.

When asked about the consequences of war in Iran, Roubini sees prolonged high oil prices "$170, $180, $200 a barrel" and warned of the knock-on consequences: "the last three major global recessions ... were all caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to spike in oil prices." But Bremmer's not buying all the war hype: "the Obama administration does not want to engage in military strikes against Iran -- and they sure as hell are going to resist it, no matter what -- before the elections."

When it comes to metaphors, the pair of prognosticators didn't disappoint: Roubini still sees a dark outcome in Europe -- "a slow-motion train wreck" -- while Bremmer sees the Chinese economy as a "very, very fast car" hurtling down a highway ... "the problem is that there's a bend in the road coming up and there's no steering."

But the real surprise comes at the end of the conversation, where Roubini and Bremmer both worry about instability in Moscow and Beijing bringing the two nations together -- but it might be less a case of keeping your friends close than keeping your enemies closer.