Op-Ed Will the Supreme Court strike down extreme partisan gerrymandering?

Thomas P. Wolf and Michael C. Li at the LA Times

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-wolf-li-gerrymander-20170925-story.html

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When the court considers Wisconsin’s extreme map, two facts should help soothe twin concerns that it expressed when it last addressed the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in the mid-2000s: that unconstitutional gerrymanders are too hard to separate from run-of-the-mill, legal ones and that a ruling by the court banning certain kinds of gerrymanders might lead to a flood of redistricting litigation.

For now, Wisconsin-type extreme gerrymandering is likely limited to a handful of congressional maps and less than a dozen state legislative maps. And its harm — the decade-long entrenchment of a single party — is a particularly stark one, both because it is so flagrant and because it so clearly violates core American commitments to representative and accountable legislatures.

New developments in social science should also help the court feel more comfortable with policing extreme gerrymanders. Since the mid-2000s, many novel methods have emerged to reliably flag maps that are biased in favor of one party. These methods include both measures of “partisan symmetry” (which show when a map favors one party over another in translating votes into seats) and simulated mapping applications (which show when maps are biased at a level that could only be intentional). Many of the worst maps, including Wisconsin’s, violate multiple such methods, making them easy cases.

What’s more, there’s been a political realignment around the issue that should undercut any sense that the Wisconsin suit is a party power-play in disguise. Current and former elected officials from both parties — including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — have joined together to demand a judicial response to the problem. This bipartisan chorus demonstrates that the Wisconsin case isn’t about which party wins. Instead, it’s about whether voters will get representative and accountable legislatures.

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