Trump on the economy: smoke, mirrors and half-truths

Euphoric over the Commerce Department's announcement of second-quarter GDP numbers, President Trump asserted at a July 27 White House news conference: "We are on track to reach the highest annualized growth rate in 13 years."

He stated this was the best showing since the third quarter of 2014 and boasted that unemployment is near an 18-year low and exports are surging.
A closer, more detailed look based on an explanation of the numbers rather than a mere posting of statistics paints a more accurate picture.

The number that Trump and his acolytes continue to bandy about is the 4.1-percent growth rate. But this overall growth rate of goods and services is a flawed measure. A big chunk of GDP is government spending — not just private economic activity.

Most importantly, the 4.1 percent is a snapshot in time (the second quarter) of 2018. It is useless as a predictor of future economic performance (the next three quarters).

How valid is the president's claim that the growth rate during his presidency is much higher than his predecessors?

Actually, Obama presided over eight quarters of growth over 3 percent, including four over 4 percent. The second quarter of 2000 under Bill Clinton hit 7.5 percent and attained 7.1 percent in the second quarter of 2004 under George W. Bush.

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/400559-trump-on-the-economy-smoke-mirrors-and-half-truths