The Food Bubble
The history of food took an ominous turn in 1991, at a time when no one was paying much attention. That
was the year Goldman Sachs decided our daily bread might make an excellent investment.
Agriculture, rooted as it is in the rhythms of reaping and sowing, had not traditionally engaged the attention of Wall Street bankers, whose riches did not come from the sale of real things like wheat or bread but from the manipulation of ethereal concepts like risk and collateralized debt.
But in 1991 nearly everything else that could be recast as a financial abstraction had already been considered. Food was pretty much all that was left. And so with accustomed care and precision, Goldmans analysts went about transforming food into a concept.
They selected eighteen commodifiable ingredients and contrived a financial elixir that included cattle, coffee, cocoa, corn, hogs, and a variety or two of wheat. They weighted the investment value of each element, blended and commingled the parts into sums, then reduced what had been a complicated collection of real things into a mathematical formula that could be expressed as a single manifestation, to be known thenceforward as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.
Then they began to offer shares. and the rest is pretty much a very sad story......
http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/files/the-food-bubble-pdf.pdf
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Gasoline Speculation......
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/21/139521/once-again-speculators-behind.html
bhikkhu
(10,716 posts)I'm sure money was made, but as far as running up the price of commodities, there doesn't seem to be an "ominous turn" in the data. The only thing that has happened more recently is due to oil prices, which are an entirely different story.
DCKit
(18,541 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)He's got data, you've got anecdote. If you want to say he's wrong, you need data.
MindMover
(5,016 posts)or make one up, for that matter.....I enjoy reading and learning from experts in there field....by the way, there is a donation site here as well....
http://www.heifer.org/media-standalone/world-ark/archives/2012/february/triple-threat-of-unstable-food-prices
another graph found in the link above that is helpful to finding the truth of the matter......
[url=http://www.flickr.com/photos/41483660@N04/7081932779/][img][/img][/url]
[url=http://www.flickr.com/photos/41483660@N04/7081932779/]Unstable_Food_Prices_7sm[/url]
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Your graphic says if food prices go up, then poor will suffer.
His graphic says food prices haven't gone up - they've gone down.
Your graphic says there could be a problem, his says your problem has not arisen - and in fact it's moving away from that problem.
Your best bet to counter his data would be to show food prices haven't fallen as a percentage of income in poor countries, since his data is for the US.
MindMover
(5,016 posts)his graphic = US food prices have declined since 1930's as a percentage of income....I certainly hope wages are better in 2012 than 1930's....however, given the nature of the greedy bastards on earth at this time.....we could be looking at 30's wages soon enough........
Here is some weekly wages in the early 1930's (the averages) that I have found while researching this very same question:
Manufacturing-Production Worker $16.89
Cook $15
Doctor $61.11
Accountant $45
my graphic = US, Guatemala, Kenya, Azerbaijan food prices as a percentage of income....
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Yes, and to have a point, you need a graphic from before the ebil Goldman Sucks of DOOOOOM got involved in food so that you can show food costs as percent of income has gone up. If both food prices and incomes have gone up, then it doesn't matter - they are no worse off.
It's data the author of your article also needs badly, since it's the gaping hole in his claims of DOOOOOOOOM.
MindMover
(5,016 posts)"If both food prices and incomes have gone up, then it doesn't matter - they are no worse off."
I do not need to insult you....You are doing a sufficient enough job of that......
SATIRical
(261 posts)The other poster is correct.
bhikkhu
(10,716 posts)in the US a very very small amount of our incomes goes to food purchases, compared both to historical averages and to the rest of the world. Primarily because of our system of industrial agriculture, this percentage has been declining for decades.
In the future, however, if you look at the constraints of resources - petroleum products to fertilize and transport, water which is abundant no where - and the impacts of climate change, the very affordable food we enjoy now is likely to get more and more expensive. It has nothing to do with banks and speculation, and there was no "ominous turn" in '91.
Looking at a trend and making a wrong interpretation is one thing, but inventing a trend to attach one's agenda to is another.
This also has nothing to do with whether poor people can afford food, as it looks at averages. On average, the rising cost of fuel impacts most those who had no room in the budget for any increases.
MindMover
(5,016 posts)7% of Americans income is spent on food....and the price of food and other financial instruments will continue to increase not due solely, to price volatility created by greedy bastards.....
and speculation in all financial markets cost the consumer between 10-40% to the final cost of product...
and invention of trends is a speculators job.....wrong interpretations are stock and trade of speculators.....
and if you ask the average poor person today about averages, they will say that Hank Aaron had one of the best....
limpyhobbler
(8,244 posts)Depends what you eat. But if you want to eat a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables and lean meats, it seems kind of expensive to me. It's a lot cheaper to eat all carbs like pasta or rice. But it gets kind of gross.
Other household supplies have got up even more than food I think. That's like toilet paper, cleaning supplies, laundry detergent, dish soap, mouthwash like Listerine, Shampoo, shaving razors, Lysol-type sprays and bleach, etc. All that stuff seems more expensive than food to me. And it basically comes out of the same household budget and gets bought at the same time as food. So it makes the grocery bill high.
I'd like to see the price of these basic goods be set lower.