Will Iraq become Syria 2.0?

Atlantic Council
January 6, 2020
New Atlanticist by Daniel V. Speckhard

... Having served for two years in leadership positions at the US Embassy in Iraq, I reveled in the news a few months ago that Iran was finally getting the sharp rebuke it deserved from Iraqis for all its meddling. Protestors in the normally sympathetic Shiite areas of Najaf and Karbala were protesting in front of Iranian consulates and demanding Iran stop interfering in Iraq. It should have come as no surprise that Iran looked for an opportunity to provoke the US military and lure it back into the limelight, using their proxies to stir up a heavy-handed US response to their provocation and shift the focus of attention to the US presence and away from Iranian insensitivity to Iraqi sovereignty.

While many Iraqis are happy to be rid of Soleimani, others are uniting to demand the ouster of all US military forces. Iran has the distraction it needed and the United States is now in the unenviable position of having to protect Americans, military and civilians, everywhere in the world against retaliation and further escalation. Moreover, US influence in Iraqi politics and government institutions pales in comparison to Iran. With one American foot out the door in the region and recent memories of its abandonment of its Kurdish allies in Syria, Iraqi officials no longer trust their future with the United States. Iran will use its militarized militias and proxies to further dismantle the nascent Iraq democracy Americans spent so much blood and treasure supporting.

This predicament is compounded by the carelessness the United States has shown to its European allies over the last three years. At a time when there is a dire need for a united front to contain Iran, the United States is instead seen as the cause of its own troubles and compounding the mess. Unsurprisingly there is scant sympathy from Western leaders or their constituencies.

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