How impeachment could flip the Senate

By Rahm Emanuel

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) initiated an impeachment inquiry into President Trump several months ago, many worried that she was repeating the mistakes Republicans made during their monomaniacal pursuit of President Bill Clinton two decades ago. At that time, the GOP’s fever dream proved an electoral disaster for House Republicans. In November 1998, Democrats did so well that House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) was compelled to resign just days after the midterm elections.

That’s not going to happen again. Last year’s Democratic victories in Kentucky and Louisiana illustrated that pursuing Trump isn’t the political kryptonite for Democrats that persecuting Clinton was for Republicans. That’s probably because even many of Trump’s supporters presume he is guilty of breaking the law. It is rare for an incumbent’s popularity to be in the low to mid-40s this close to reelection. It suggests that the country has grown numb to his Twitter tirades — and that character still matters.

Some will argue that the president is an outlier — that he’s immune to the laws of politics. Whether that proves to be right, there’s one arena in which impeachment is likely to have an outsize impact: in the battle for control of Congress. The House looks to stay in Democratic hands: Already, fear of a Trumplash partly explains why 26 House Republicans have announced they are retiring or seeking another office. Meanwhile, Democrats are said even by some Republicans to be “crushing” House GOP fundraising efforts. If Republicans are too busy defending their seats to run competitively in districts already controlled by Democrats, Pelosi’s double-digit margin in the House is likely to survive.

But if the scandal is working to preserve the Democratic tilt in the House, it could upend things in the Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat margin. Impeachment will likely decide the fate of a handful of Senate Republicans currently in cycle. For Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Martha McSally (Ariz.), a vote to convict is unthinkable: It risks the president’s wrath and a likely primary challenge. That combination would force each senator to embrace an agenda alien to most swing voters.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinions-how-impeachment-could-flip-the-senate/ar-BBZroS5?ocid=msn360