Commentary: What a lower death toll than first expected means
By Sandra McCoy and Pia MacDonald / The Washington Post
Covid-19 has killed more than 40,000 people in the United States so far; fewer than the 100,000 deaths originally projected. Hospital systems outside New York, New Jersey and Louisiana have mostly avoided being overwhelmed with coronavirus patients. Some states such as California may have managed to flatten the curve and slow the number of infections.
Now some people believe this suggests that the U.S. control strategy, with its disastrous economic consequences, was an extreme overreaction. Small but vocal protests have been organized in some states, calling for restrictions to be lifted immediately. President Trump has called to liberate states with businesses closed by social distancing orders. Seeking to ease economic strain, governors in Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and other places are considering easing restrictions and opening some, if not all, businesses in the coming days.
But public health professionals like us see the current mitigation strategy as proportionate and warranted. The lower-than-expected death tolls dont demonstrate that the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic was a mistake; they show that its working.
Of course we should rigorously interrogate the rationale of an epidemic-control strategy that exacerbates societal inequity and has resulted in more than 95 percent of Americans being told to stay at home and 22 million newly unemployed workers since March 14. And its smart to consider alternative explanations for epidemic trends we observe and ask whether the control strategies are really responsible for those trends; this sort of question is, in fact, key to the scientific process.
https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/commentary-what-a-lower-death-toll-than-first-expected-means/?utm_source=DAILY+HERALD&utm_campaign=4f4cbe973c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d81d073bb4-4f4cbe973c-228635337
mzmolly
(51,003 posts)by April 23? .. Some appear to suggest the pandemic is over.
brush
(53,815 posts)seems flawed. And the toll keeps rising daily.
Neither the end nor 4/23.
That's the IMHE date, but it's about when most models strongly suggest the first wave will have reached a low number, possibly zero, deaths per day.
brush
(53,815 posts)Zero deaths per day by Aug. 4 seems highly unlikely.
BigDemVoter
(4,154 posts)I keep hearing people say, "Well, we haven't had 100,000." I think that remains to be seen, and I personally think it will be much, much higher.
Rorey
(8,445 posts)I don't recall anyone ever saying anything about a time period in which the death toll would reach 100,000.
It's kinda like when Dubya got on that aircraft carrier with the big ass "Mission Accomplished" banner behind him. Nope. The mission was definitely NOT accomplished.
We're barely into this hellish thing, and idiots are already thinking it's done.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)So we think the body count is about to suddenly stop? WTF? How can people live with themselves, writing such obvious crap?
AleksS
(1,665 posts)We dont need this parachutelook how slow were falling!
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)Not only are we seeing numbers be tossed around, rather than empathy and compassion for others in regards to so many people dying and losing loved ones, but there is a crucial point being missed about the reopening hubbub.
How many people have already been financially decimated to some degree by this? I think that factor increases with each week. I am also of the opinion that we have a long way to go before we have this pandemic corralled at all.
Despite the risk of going back to work for the crucial wages slaves of America, what is being expected here? Oh, a mass of flat broke folks will go out and do what? If anything, they will be trying to desperately catch up on rent, car payments and bills and, since food prices are due to skyrocket, keeping food on the table.
What is being expected here? Sure, I'll bet everyone is going to go out first thing and spend lavishly on what is going to be seen as non-essential luxuries. Dinner out. A movie. Bowling. Hair salons, manicures and pedicures. Trips. Vacations. Flying. Yeah, right. Really now?
They want to give an economy that few can afford to attend at this point. Opening up will only make that more obvious and increase the number who contract the disease and die. It does not seem like it will turn out to be the grand gala mega sales event that may be expected or suggested. We have many results brewing even now that assure it won't. Hard times ahead.
Igel
(35,337 posts)And we won't know, contra numerous specious claims, for a while.
So you're unemployed. Do you get unemployment? Is your state kicking in the additional bonus amount? If so, you won't be at a loss unless your income's fairly high.
No unemployment benefits and unemployed? Serious ouchage. But wait--some sole proprietors *can* apply for loans, and gig workers can collect unemployment. So much has shifted so quickly it's hard to account for all the updates.
But a lot of people aren't unemployed. My family--two income, both still working, but now that we're working from home we don't have gas, mileage, quite the number of expenses. And we have more trouble eating out. We're ahead. That'll change if 1 or more of us get sick.
Oh. And that's not counting the $1,200 breathing stipend. Per person.
If things get up and running soon, the damage to businesses that are shut can be reduced. But there are loans and grants, and while most of the loans/grants have been for under $150k (by a wide, wide margin), that's only something like 1.2 million businesses. (Those getting over $50 million? Under 5k business. Them's the big boys, but they're less than 10% of the total.) But now there's more money. Thing is, some of those businesses are having moral or practical problems with the pass-through funding.
States and cities got some help the last two spending bills. Will it be enough? Dunno. Depends where they put it--if in their pensions, laying off workers instead of funding them so they can claim cuts are because of the Model T, then those politicians should be seriously voter-shafted next time they're exposed. But it may not be enough.
As with a lot of things that depend on how long a circumstance lasts, you can't know the cumulate effect until the end.
EarthFirst
(2,901 posts)We lost my wifes income permanently. Along with our healthcare and her retirement benefits.
As much as wed love our return to the previous version of normal; it just isnt going to happen.
The benefits she is receiving are limited in scope from where we were a month ago.
There is no entertainment fund or lavish non-essentials for us.
Were in survival mode.
We arent the only ones...
sop
(10,226 posts)Trump is in good company.
Squinch
(50,989 posts)ridiculous. We WILL have 100,000 deaths and possibly many more from this virus.
blitzen
(4,572 posts)Ford_Prefect
(7,917 posts)nor on the degree of infection and distribution yet to be accurately observed.
COVID-19 is not like any previous disease we have encountered. There is no such thing as Herd Immunity, nor does having the disease seem to convey immunity from its many variants.
We are ever so far from over. We have only begun to count the dead and the dying because we cannot yet tell accurately why and how they died.