Editorials & Other Articles

swag

(26,487 posts) Sat May 2, 2020, 11:52 AM May 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/05/q2-gdp-forecasts-probably-around-30.html

"The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data and aren't capturing the entire collapse in the economy. These models will catch up as more data is released. All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and other forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline.

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect a 30% qoq saar decline in 2Q. Following the 1Q GDP report, our forecast for annual GDP growth this year was adjusted to -5.6%. [SAAR May 1 estimate]"

4 replies

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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline (Original Post) swag May 2020 OP

The entire economy s basically closed jimfields33 May 2020 #1

for comparison: 1930: -8.5%; 1931: -6.4%; 1932: -12.9%; 1933: -1.2% unblock May 2020 #2

Not to forget, Wellstone ruled May 2020 #4

My parents must be spinning in their graves. greatauntoftriplets May 2020 #3

jimfields33

(15,823 posts)

1. The entire economy s basically closed

Reply to swag (Original post)

Sat May 2, 2020, 12:01 PM

May 2020

Wouldn’t shock me if it’s worse then the predictions.

unblock

(52,253 posts)

2. for comparison: 1930: -8.5%; 1931: -6.4%; 1932: -12.9%; 1933: -1.2%

Reply to swag (Original post)

Sat May 2, 2020, 12:06 PM

May 2020

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

4. Not to forget,

Reply to unblock (Reply #2)

Sat May 2, 2020, 12:49 PM

May 2020

the GDP Models were changed during the Nixon years as well as the Cheney Reign of Terror.

Should include Reagan,they did what was called a adjustment to the Metrics in order to back stop his Austerity Supplyside crap.

And in 1932 our Nation was still a Agriculture Dominated Country. And the True Unemployment was just a WAG.

greatauntoftriplets

(175,742 posts)

3. My parents must be spinning in their graves.

Reply to swag (Original post)

Sat May 2, 2020, 12:44 PM

May 2020

They were 19 and 17 when the Depression started, so it had a major impact on their lives. Both were able to work throughout it (my father on a Great Lakes iron ore boat for a time), but they had to give up a lot to achieve that.

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