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Nuclear Submarine Program Surfaces in Iran
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/22207/nuclear_submarine_program_surfaces_in_iran.html
"Nuclear Submarine Program Surfaces in Iran"
Op-Ed, Power & Policy Blog, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
July 23, 2012
Author: Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
After the announcement by the deputy chief of the Iranian navy that it is considering nuclear propulsion for its submarines[1], actions have proceeded swiftly. A bill in the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) Committee was approved[2], and debate in Majlis is to follow in coming days, parallel to the next round of the P5+1 talks with Iran in Istanbul.
The Majlis debate brought to the arena additional aspects of the Iranian plans: the use of nuclear propulsion for oil tankers and possible use of uranium with higher enrichment[3]. There is speculation that nuclear propulsion will be used as a bargaining chip to trade away or as (eventual) justification for continuing uranium enrichment and get to higher enrichment. Some have raised questions about Iran’s proclamations and its actual capacity to develop nuclear submarines. At the on-going negotiating track, the issue of nuclear powered vessels was not mentioned in the paper distributed by Iran at the recent Moscow and Istanbul talks[4]. (What else is in the pipeline that has not been mentioned?)
<snip>
If we put aside for a moment the question of if, whether, and when Iran will make good on its proclaimed intent, this is what it could mean in terms of enrichment for Iran. Iran would need to produce approximately 50 kg of 90 % HEU or 100 kg of 45 % HEU to power a (small) 50 MWt submarine. The HEU produced under the first scenario is equivalent to the amount needed for 2 nuclear weapons. But before that, a land-based test reactor of the same scale would need to be constructed. In sum, with those two reactors and additional materials needed for testing and manufacturing, such a project would require HEU amounts equal to half a dozen nuclear weapons. Should Iran proceed to design and construct a reactor for oil tankers or liquid natural gas (LNG) tanker, the power of the reactor would be double. The suggested Iranian plan would mean the design of two different types of reactors; one for submarines and another one for merchant vessels. If we use the Canadian and Brazilian experiences such projects would likely costs billions of dollars, and will likely require foreign assistance and know-how.
<snip>
With a nuclear program that has generated international concern over its purely peaceful nature, an Iranian move in the direction of upping the ante with nuclear powered vessels is both dangerous and needless.
<snip>
"Nuclear Submarine Program Surfaces in Iran"
Op-Ed, Power & Policy Blog, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
July 23, 2012
Author: Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
After the announcement by the deputy chief of the Iranian navy that it is considering nuclear propulsion for its submarines[1], actions have proceeded swiftly. A bill in the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) Committee was approved[2], and debate in Majlis is to follow in coming days, parallel to the next round of the P5+1 talks with Iran in Istanbul.
The Majlis debate brought to the arena additional aspects of the Iranian plans: the use of nuclear propulsion for oil tankers and possible use of uranium with higher enrichment[3]. There is speculation that nuclear propulsion will be used as a bargaining chip to trade away or as (eventual) justification for continuing uranium enrichment and get to higher enrichment. Some have raised questions about Iran’s proclamations and its actual capacity to develop nuclear submarines. At the on-going negotiating track, the issue of nuclear powered vessels was not mentioned in the paper distributed by Iran at the recent Moscow and Istanbul talks[4]. (What else is in the pipeline that has not been mentioned?)
<snip>
If we put aside for a moment the question of if, whether, and when Iran will make good on its proclaimed intent, this is what it could mean in terms of enrichment for Iran. Iran would need to produce approximately 50 kg of 90 % HEU or 100 kg of 45 % HEU to power a (small) 50 MWt submarine. The HEU produced under the first scenario is equivalent to the amount needed for 2 nuclear weapons. But before that, a land-based test reactor of the same scale would need to be constructed. In sum, with those two reactors and additional materials needed for testing and manufacturing, such a project would require HEU amounts equal to half a dozen nuclear weapons. Should Iran proceed to design and construct a reactor for oil tankers or liquid natural gas (LNG) tanker, the power of the reactor would be double. The suggested Iranian plan would mean the design of two different types of reactors; one for submarines and another one for merchant vessels. If we use the Canadian and Brazilian experiences such projects would likely costs billions of dollars, and will likely require foreign assistance and know-how.
<snip>
With a nuclear program that has generated international concern over its purely peaceful nature, an Iranian move in the direction of upping the ante with nuclear powered vessels is both dangerous and needless.
<snip>
