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Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past
http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/04/cliodynamics-peter-turchin/
Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past
By Klint Finley
04.10.13 6:30 AM
In Isaac Asimovs classic science fiction saga Foundation, mathematics professor Hari Seldon predicts the future using what he calls psychohistory. Drawing on mathematical models that describe what happened in the past, he anticipates what will happen next, including the fall of the Galactic Empire.
That may seem like fanciful stuff. But Peter Turchin is turning himself into a real-life Hari Seldon and hes not alone.
Turchin a professor at the University of Connecticut is the driving force behind a field called cliodynamics, where scientists and mathematicians analyze history in the hopes of finding patterns they can then use to predict the future. Its named after Clio, the Greek muse of history.
These academics have the same goals as other historians We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history, Turchin says. For example: Why do civilizations collapse? but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isnt that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, were due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.
<snip>
Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past
By Klint Finley
04.10.13 6:30 AM
In Isaac Asimovs classic science fiction saga Foundation, mathematics professor Hari Seldon predicts the future using what he calls psychohistory. Drawing on mathematical models that describe what happened in the past, he anticipates what will happen next, including the fall of the Galactic Empire.
That may seem like fanciful stuff. But Peter Turchin is turning himself into a real-life Hari Seldon and hes not alone.
Turchin a professor at the University of Connecticut is the driving force behind a field called cliodynamics, where scientists and mathematicians analyze history in the hopes of finding patterns they can then use to predict the future. Its named after Clio, the Greek muse of history.
These academics have the same goals as other historians We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history, Turchin says. For example: Why do civilizations collapse? but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isnt that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, were due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.
<snip>
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Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past (Original Post)
bananas
Apr 2013
OP
GiveMeFreedom
(976 posts)1. Wow,
2020 I'll be gone by then. Sure would like to stay and help. Peace.
TexasTowelie
(112,417 posts)2. Crap, I thought that cliodynamics was named after this woman:
Now I understand why I've been unemployed so long with my BS in math.
Uncle Joe
(58,417 posts)3. Kicked and recommended.
Thanks for the thread, bananas.