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drynberg

(1,648 posts)
1. Dr. Wolff is on the money in seeing what is happening to the job market in the USA, he
Tue Dec 9, 2014, 10:17 AM
Dec 2014

Also sets this explanation in context of our economy. As usual for Dr. Wolff, he is not only right, but his explanation is understandable to the average American. Thanks for posting, I wish it were better news, but not bullshit.

progree

(10,907 posts)
2. I agree on the big picture, but people should know that the job numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Tue Dec 9, 2014, 12:27 PM
Dec 2014

Beginning at 2:49 they talk about seasonal hiring being a big factor in the big job numbers we saw on Friday for November (321,000 net new payroll jobs). But he never mentioned that the payroll job numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ( http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth ), as just about all of the other numbers in news reports of the jobs reports. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics does adjust for seasonal hiring (497,000 net new jobs were created in November according to the raw unadjusted numbers).

The seasonally UNadjusted numbers are here by the way (interesting graph, worth the click)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
The Unadjusted net new job numbers for the last 3 months, are:
September: 692,000; October: 1,051,000; and November: 497,000.

Here's more of the jobs situation over the last year and since the jobs recovery began in March 2010. Note in particular that the INFLATION-ADJUSTED earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers is actually positive, meaning that it's keeping ahead of inflation.

Some key numbers from the Household Survey. See below, and see Table A-1 for the main Household Survey numbers - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Over the last year:
+1,113,000 Labor Force
+2,844,000 Employed
-1,731,000 Unemployed
+0.6% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-0.2% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-1.2% Unemployment rate
-1.7% U-6 unemployment rate
-873,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+309,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,531,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)


Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Jobs, as % of All Employed
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]Nov'13 Aug'14 Oct'14 Nov'14
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%


Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 57 months thru Nov 30, 2014: 11'14 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru November 30, 2014)
+2,677,000 Labor Force
+8,688,000 Employed
-6,011,000 Unemployed
+0.7% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-2.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-4.0% Unemployment rate
-5.6% U-6 unemployment rate
-2,054,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+142,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+8,695,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+1.65% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru October 2014 because no data for Nov yet

So the economy is clearly improving. That said, it still sucks in my opinion, and is still a long way from "recovered". We are coming out of a very deep hole, but still in the hole.

 

Plucketeer

(12,882 posts)
3. The job scene is improving alright
Tue Dec 9, 2014, 02:46 PM
Dec 2014

but as Richard observes, it's deceptive as to its worth against what such employment figures USED TO mean for this nation. This is what the burgeoning corporatocracy has striven for all along. Instead of paying wages someone can get by on, they pay according to the desperation factor. It's this scheme that is seeing the return of some jobs that had been off-shored. With wages of foreign workforces starting to find "equals" here, they've attained their goal and can triumphantly bring home jobs that we lost in the past.
The looming TPP will be the icing this cake cries for. Then we'll be owned and operated by China. Heck, we might even get a better deal on military hardware from them. That way our tax dollars can go further with our mercenary goals!

progree

(10,907 posts)
4. Not sure where he gets his wage information
Tue Dec 9, 2014, 06:14 PM
Dec 2014

Here is the BLS's (again these are after adjusting for inflation):

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

Over the last year (last 12 months):
+0.84% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is 11 months thru October because no CPI data for Nov. yet

Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 57 months thru Nov 30, 2014: 11'14 - 2'10:
+1.65% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru October 2014 because no CPI data for Nov. yet

And that horse hockey one often hears about part time jobs:


From: What's Behind November's Remarkable Job Surge?, The Atlantic, 12/5/14
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/obama-november-jobs-report-economy-added-321000-recovery/383471/

Given that the good professor wasn't honest about the job numbers (talking about how its due to seasonal hiring without mentioning they are seasonally adjusted numbers -- something he almost certainly knows -- beginning at 2:49 in the video), I would take what he says with a grain of salt.

Again, I don't think this is a good economy, we haven't gotten all the way out of the deep hole of the Great Recession.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
5. I wish I had his confidence in the sensibility of the Fed Reserve
Tue Dec 9, 2014, 07:43 PM
Dec 2014

I think the crazy bastards will raise interest rates regardless of the fragility of the economy. After all, these are the crazy bastards that got us into this situation, to begin with.

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