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Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
Mon Jun 5, 2017, 08:37 PM Jun 2017

Jeremy Corbyn speaks to mass election rally in Gateshead on Monday

Last edited Wed Jun 7, 2017, 01:57 AM - Edit history (4)

(the BBC has apparently removed the original clip I posted...they are under heavy pressure to help the Tories stay in power and no longer have any journalistic independence to speak of. Here's a better clip, filmed from the crowd, showing the size of the crowd and with excellent audio).

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sandensea

(21,639 posts)
1. I'll send a good wish his way.
Mon Jun 5, 2017, 09:24 PM
Jun 2017

In the unlikely case Labour gains seats, there's no chance for an alliance with the SNP to make Corbyn Prime Minister - is there?

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
2. Actually it's entirely possible(and a poll just out put Labour only one point behind, so who knows?)
Mon Jun 5, 2017, 11:31 PM
Jun 2017

especially if. as is now increasingly possible, the SNP loses some ground in Scotland and has a vested interest in avoid a second early election.

The key is making sure young voters turn up and are able to vote when they DO turn up.

 

LBM20

(1,580 posts)
6. It is VERY likely they will gain seats. The only question is will it be enough to take the majority.
Tue Jun 6, 2017, 05:16 AM
Jun 2017

sandensea

(21,639 posts)
7. Your word to God's ear.
Tue Jun 6, 2017, 10:17 AM
Jun 2017

And you're right. It WAS unlikely a few weeks ago; but polls have shifted, and quickly.

May really showed her Thatcherite cards with her dementia tax and other 'austerity for thee-but-not-for-me' policies.

That, plus her steep police cuts in light of recent events, have left her in a bit of pinch.

Nevertheless, the chances for a hung parliament are high. Question is: is a Labour-SNP coalition at all possible? Are there any other possible combinations?

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
8. Maybe not a formal coalition...Labour can't formally bring Scots sovereigntists into the cabinet.
Tue Jun 6, 2017, 03:30 PM
Jun 2017

It would be more like what is called a "confidence and supply" agreement, in which SNP would not be part of the government, but would vote to keep it in power on questions of confidence(that is, votes on which, were the governing party to lose, it would no longer be able to stay in office, having lost "the confidence of the house&quot .

Much depends on how well SNP does on Thursday. Recent polls show its support dropping and support for Labour increasing(the Tories are up slightly as well, though its not clear if that will hold up if May's support keeps dropping in England and Wales). The Nats are more likely to back such a deal IF they do worse than expected and aren't sure they want to face the voters again anytime soon.

Everything is in flux.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
10. The other possible partners in THAT sort of arrangement might be the Liberal Democrats
Tue Jun 6, 2017, 04:16 PM
Jun 2017

But it's possible they will actually do WORSE than they did in 2015...when they fell from 57 seats to 8.

Plaid Cymru(the Welsh nationalist party)would probably be open to such an arrangement, but usually only wins 2 or 3 seats, and there's the Social Democratic and Labour Party in Northern Ireland(the moderate pro-Irish party, nominally aligned with Labour)that holds a few.


But the situation is so deeply in flux at this moment that it's even possible Labour might get a majority...a long shot, but within the realm of possibility...especially if the young voters actually turn up at the polls. It looks as though they will...that they understand the importance.

sandensea

(21,639 posts)
11. Thanks for the overview, Ken! An embarrassment of riches.
Tue Jun 6, 2017, 05:51 PM
Jun 2017

I sometimes wonder what our politics - particularly at the congressional level - would be like if we had a multi-party system. Most developed, and many developing, countries do after all.

Response to Ken Burch (Original post)

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