The state of the enthusiast photographic marketplace (as I see it).
I'm typing this real time on a tablet, so forgive any typos please.
The equipment available to us has distilled down to high end pro, advanced enthusiast/hobby and specialty. Missing is the compact point n shoot that for so long made up the largest volume, and source of profit, for manufacturers which has been replaced by camera phones.
As the market sorts itself out the volume of camera sales continues to decline. In terms of unit count and $ volume sales continue to decline as does camera division profitability. Canon and Nikon still command 70% of the market with the remaining market shared by everybody else. Canon has increased it's share of this decreasing market at the expense of Nikon and the only manufacturer that saw increased unit count was Fujifilm with Sony remaining flat. All of the major players showed a loss in profits and operated in the red last year with Olympus the biggest loser just below Nikon. The Olympus numbers are skewed because of costs associated with closing a factory (for compact cameras) but that aside the numbers still look dismal. Nikon on the other hand has no fig leaf for cover. There have been quality issues and the cost of developing the new ff mirrorless line has exaserbated the profit loss. Canon shared the burden of R&D as well as introducing a fourth lens mount.
All that said the viability of the major players is not in doubt. The camera divisions are only a small part of the parent companies and are used as R&D centers for the other divisions such as medical, office equipment and scientific. However the products being offered are increasingly evpensive and sophisticated (and profitable on a per unit basis). The hobby is becoming more expensive and the equipment more complicated.
From where I'm standing the biggest opportunity for future product offerings that might appeal to a mass market must begin stealing market share from the camera phone segment. For that an entry level ICL with a user interface mimicking cell phones is the only place to increase unit sales and profitability as hobbiests outgrow the capability of phone cameras. Canon and Olympus are both doing interesting things with wireless and Bluetooth technology but a seemless user interface still eludes the enthusiast market. Panasonic, which is a consumer electronics company, may be able to leverage their other technologies to create an attractive product for that segment.
As it stands now the major players are settling into nich marketing. The movement to full frame appeals to those who need exceptional low light performance, Oly is dedicated to sports, wildlife and action still photography. Panasonic and Sony are capturing the Video market.
Unless a product can be developed that can break into the mass volume market I think the current trends will continue. Meanwhile the phone cameras continue to increase image quality and capability making that transition product all the more elusive.
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