Some 191,000 Arkansans may need hospital care for coronavirus, according to new study

Some 908,900 Arkansans may become infected with the novel coronavirus over the course of the next six months, according to an epidemiological model of the spread of COVID-19 in Arkansas provided by the Arkansas Hospital Association to its members. Among those who become infected, an estimated 190,800 Arkansans may need hospital care and 41,400 may need to be hospitalized in intensive care units in the next six months, according to the projections.

The model, which was obtained by the Arkansas Nonprofit News Network and which the AHA later confirmed it produced, assumes a statewide 40 percent infection rate over the course of six months and puts hospitalization at the peak of the pandemic — in June — at 12,720 beds. There are around 8,400 staffed hospital beds in Arkansas.

The AHA’s numbers were based on a model designed by infectious disease epidemiologists at Harvard University.

Asked about the projections on Thursday, Governor Hutchinson said he and Secretary of Health Dr. Nathaniel Smith had spent a lot of time on modeling.

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https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/03/26/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus-according-to-new-study?fbclid=IwAR2qBUHKL2gfTz1G3W41ciUFp8OliR4RKIXrKlZk9xKcwG3QF5c43EBhRg0