California

Auggie

(31,171 posts) Mon Aug 20, 2018, 04:19 PM Aug 2018

NOAA: El Nino Forecast / Winter 2018 - 2019 (70% chance -- but there's a catch)

Last edited Mon Aug 20, 2018, 06:59 PM - Edit history (1)

At least according to this site ...

Winter weather during the 2018 – 2019 season will be largely effected by the development of an El Niño trend. With NOAA predicting a 70% chance of an El Niño conditions for January, February and March the question turns to ‘how strong of an El Niño event are we in for?’

The following report was made by Prof. Jason C. Furtado (@wxjay) of the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology. His research group focuses on large-scale climate dynamics and applying that knowledge to subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, testing and evaluating operational and climate models, and future climate change.

In case you haven’t heard, there is now a 70% chance of an El Niño this winter. Having a confident prediction of El Niño this far ahead is quite a feat for the seasonal forecasting community. One reason ENSO is predictable six to nine months ahead of time is the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the related Pacific Meridional Mode.

But, these precursors are unable to answer another critical question about El Niño: What will be the flavor of the El Niño event – i.e., a stronger, Eastern Pacific (EP) type or a weaker, Central Pacific (CP) event? For that, I contend, you have to look to the South Pacific, a region that has received little attention in past ENSO studies. And the South Pacific suggests, if an El Niño forms this year, it will be a “weak” or CP event.

MORE: https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/30/noaa-el-nino-forecast-outlook-for-winter-2018-2019/

Don't count your chickens quite yet. I read about this today (8-20-18) from another source and had great hopes for a wet California winter, but I guess the jury is still out. Cross your fingers ...

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

NOAA: El Nino Forecast / Winter 2018 - 2019 (70% chance -- but there's a catch) (Original Post) Auggie Aug 2018 OP

U.S. rainfall, regular El Nino vs El Nino Modoki (central pacific) 4139 Aug 2018 #1

Thanks for posting. A weak event would be very frustrating ... Auggie Aug 2018 #2

Two winters ago was the El Nino that relieved CA of a 5 year drought BigmanPigman Aug 2018 #3

Glad you posted this thought ... Auggie Aug 2018 #4

4139

(1,893 posts)

1. U.S. rainfall, regular El Nino vs El Nino Modoki (central pacific)

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 04:38 PM

Aug 2018

Regular El Niño rainfall

El Niño Modoki rainfall

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Auggie

(31,171 posts)

2. Thanks for posting. A weak event would be very frustrating ...

Reply to 4139 (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 07:01 PM

Aug 2018

Perhaps painful. Perhaps catastrophic.

BigmanPigman

(51,593 posts)

3. Two winters ago was the El Nino that relieved CA of a 5 year drought

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 07:58 PM

Aug 2018

but the following winter was worse than that one was by far! The winter of 2016 gave us about one year's rain in about two weeks and it kept raining. Then this past winter back to drought rain totals. I don't know how they can predict any weather given the unknowns related to Climate Change. We know that the weather will be filled with extremes and weather patterns that stay in place for a longer period of time before moving through. I am grateful to the other counties who are sharing their research info with us since one of the first things the fake prez did when in office was to lay off staff, severely limit research and stop info from being released to the public. He is pure evil!

Auggie

(31,171 posts)

4. Glad you posted this thought ...

Reply to BigmanPigman (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 09:01 PM

Aug 2018

I was thinking about it earlier.

Climate change could -- or will -- rewrite the paradigms of weather forecasting. There's no guarantee that El Niños of the future will behave as El Niños of the past, or any other weather pattern for that matter.

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