California

Auggie

(31,173 posts) Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:04 AM Mar 16

California's high-speed rail needs $100 billion to finish -- scrapping the project is a possibility

California’s high-speed rail project has teased residents with recent renderings of how its futuristic trains and massive stations would look. But, despite recent progress and the excitement those renderings have produced, the project remains about $7 billion short of the cost to complete the initial segment from Merced to Bakersfield.

The rail project also needs about $100 billion to make the original vision of linking San Francisco and Los Angeles via bullet trains a reality. And some of the project’s watchdogs say state leaders need to decide soon whether to commit to the entire project — or abandon it.

SNIP

The project has been mired by rising cost estimates, delays and litigation — “Phase 1” between San Francisco to L.A. is estimated to cost three times the initial cost projection.

Exacerbating the problem is the fact that the project continues to face financial uncertainty. Its sole source of ongoing funds, from the state’s cap-and-trade program, expires in 2030. Authority officials want to extend that authorization to 2050.

Link (paywall): https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/ca-high-speed-rail-100-billion-18979091.php

According to the link, that funding alone won’t be enough to finance the complete project even with an extension. Louis Thompson, chairman of the project’s Peer Review Group, said lawmakers should decide soon whether to commit to building the entire project or cut bait.

Thompson adds:

“It is critical that any funding approach be fully funded, and stable and predictable from year to year. This has not been done, and it is ever more important.”

“We cannot emphasize too strongly that inaction by the Legislature and governor to identify an adequate and stable source of funding for the project is increasing its costs and hindering management’s control of the project.”

This was -- and is -- an unnecessary project. A huge boondoggle. I said so from the beginning and voted against it, advocating spending money on local transit such as (in the S.F. Bay Area) BART expansions, CalTrain improvements, and even a second Bay Bridge.

18 replies

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California's high-speed rail needs $100 billion to finish -- scrapping the project is a possibility (Original Post) Auggie Mar 16 OP

Yes. Bigger is not always better. SarahD Mar 16 #1

It's already a sunk cost. Abandoning it will be wasting all the billions already put into it ColinC Mar 16 #2

Not necessarily. SarahD Mar 16 #3

Good point. Although I hope they continue :) ColinC Mar 16 #6

Europe's high speed rail is awesome. Joinfortmill Mar 16 #4

We've been hearing about this forever. jimfields33 Mar 16 #5

Politics as usual. SarahD Mar 16 #8

Regardless. This is California and not Wyoming. Politics in California should be easy with practically jimfields33 Mar 16 #9

That's not necessarily so in the Central Valley Auggie Mar 16 #13

China's High Speed Rail and Europe's High Speed Rail nwliberalkiwi Mar 16 #7

It is basic infrastructure for a modern developed country. Hence why the US build it. David__77 Mar 16 #10

This project was initiated from within California Auggie Mar 16 #12

We can't have nice things in the U.S.A. because we are special. hunter Mar 16 #11

Meanwhile SMART doesn't connect to BART JoseBalow Mar 16 #14

hope you are satisfied with stuck in traffic on 99 or 5 if u have to be in a hurry. aint going to happen AllaN01Bear Mar 16 #15

Ca HS Rail enid602 Mar 17 #16

How would that work? OneCrazyDiamond Mar 18 #17

Large infrastructure projects seem not to make sense until they're done. CoopersDad Apr 5 #18

SarahD

(1,188 posts)

1. Yes. Bigger is not always better.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:23 AM

Mar 16

A rail service between SF and LA would be cool, but not nearly as useful as building several other mass transit projects to serve LA County and get some cars off the freeway. The trains don't need to be high speed, either. All they need to do is move faster than freeway traffic during rush hour.

ColinC

(8,300 posts)

2. It's already a sunk cost. Abandoning it will be wasting all the billions already put into it

Reply to SarahD (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:25 AM

Mar 16

SarahD

(1,188 posts)

3. Not necessarily.

Reply to ColinC (Reply #2)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:33 AM

Mar 16

They could build a more local version by shortening the line and reducing the speed, maybe adding more local stations, things like that. The sunken cost argument invariably comes up when trying to keep going on these Big Dream projects, but it rests on the assumption that it must be all or nothing, that the only choices are to complete the project as envisioned or walk away. That's not the case here.

ColinC

(8,300 posts)

6. Good point. Although I hope they continue :)

Reply to SarahD (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:44 AM

Mar 16

Joinfortmill

(14,427 posts)

4. Europe's high speed rail is awesome.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:36 AM

Mar 16

Would be wonderful if we had it throughout the country, especially now that planes are losing parts in mid-flight.

jimfields33

(15,809 posts)

5. We've been hearing about this forever.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:36 AM

Mar 16

We built a whole railroad across the country in less time. This is ridiculous.

SarahD

(1,188 posts)

8. Politics as usual.

Reply to jimfields33 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:54 AM

Mar 16

The railroads used to be considered good by almost everybody. Now they're considered bad by conservatives and NIMBYs. We have become a nation of selfish, resentful people. Anything that doesn't benefit me is bad. Anything that benefits the community is socialism.

jimfields33

(15,809 posts)

9. Regardless. This is California and not Wyoming. Politics in California should be easy with practically

Reply to SarahD (Reply #8)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 11:06 AM

Mar 16

one party running things.

Auggie

(31,173 posts)

13. That's not necessarily so in the Central Valley

Reply to jimfields33 (Reply #9)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 02:02 PM

Mar 16

nwliberalkiwi

(367 posts)

7. China's High Speed Rail and Europe's High Speed Rail

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 10:48 AM

Mar 16

China's high speed rail is the largest in the world. Take a look at it on You Tube. We have definitely fallen behind. My wife and I last year road high speed rail in Europe, and it was a great experience!!! This country is falling behind in so many metrics!!!

David__77

(23,419 posts)

10. It is basic infrastructure for a modern developed country. Hence why the US build it.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 11:39 AM

Mar 16

Auggie

(31,173 posts)

12. This project was initiated from within California

Reply to David__77 (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 02:00 PM

Mar 16

Last edited Sat Mar 16, 2024, 03:11 PM - Edit history (1)

The politics and associated graft of building such a rail system outside of California would be just as great.

hunter

(38,317 posts)

11. We can't have nice things in the U.S.A. because we are special.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 01:36 PM

Mar 16

Our health care "system" is an expensive disaster, our transportation networks don't work, a third of our citizens are essentially illiterate and innumerate, our diets are crap, we can't build homes for the homeless, we can't keep keep guns out of the hands of fools and psychopaths, and our cops are dangerous.

*sigh*

JoseBalow

(2,391 posts)

14. Meanwhile SMART doesn't connect to BART

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 02:21 PM

Mar 16

Gotta take a bus or ferry to get into the city

AllaN01Bear

(18,245 posts)

15. hope you are satisfied with stuck in traffic on 99 or 5 if u have to be in a hurry. aint going to happen

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sat Mar 16, 2024, 05:48 PM

Mar 16

we voted for thart system and the t,, party shut it down. we cant have nice things .

enid602

(8,620 posts)

16. Ca HS Rail

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Sun Mar 17, 2024, 05:10 PM

Mar 17

It’s almost completed from SF to Merced. When operating that will fund SD and LA to Bakersfield. When completed, those two segments will fund Bakersfield to Merced. Will bring prosperity to Central Valley cities, and make them blue.

OneCrazyDiamond

(2,032 posts)

17. How would that work?

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Mon Mar 18, 2024, 05:41 PM

Mar 18

The Feds just cut us 6 Billion for High Speed Rail.

CoopersDad

(2,193 posts)

18. Large infrastructure projects seem not to make sense until they're done.

Reply to Auggie (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2024, 01:10 AM

Apr 5

HSR is getting done, it will be worth the investment.

Smaller local systems are great but don't always make for a great wider network.

BART not using standard gauge, for example, was not a good idea.

I want to see HSR get done and connect to Gilroy, not far from me in Aptos.

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