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Will a Florida Ballot Measure to Protect Abortion Shake Up the State's Politics This November?
The NationArchived: https://archive.ph/4p6zf
I’m calling it now: Florida is going to be the most important state to watch in the 2024 election.
And it’s not because of that brief nightmare you just woke up from where Ron DeSantis was a presidential contender.
By April 1, the Florida Supreme Court will decide whether to allow Floridians to vote on a ballot measure that would enshrine a right to abortion until viability in the state Constitution, while allowing the state’s existing parental notification requirement to remain in place. As we’ve seen from the elections since the Roe was repealed, having an abortion-related initiative on the ballot has major ramifications for all other contests. In Michigan in 2022, an abortion ballot measure helped pull Democrats to victory in the governorship, the House, and the Senate.
It’s hard to overstate the stakes here. Florida not only is the last bastion of abortion access in the Southeast but also has the third-highest number of electoral votes and a memorable record of swinging presidential elections. Yes, Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020; the legislature has a Republican supermajority; and the governor flies asylum seekers to Martha’s Vineyard for kicks—but Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012. More than a dozen states could vote on abortion in 2024, but none will be significant as Florida.
Until now, it’s been unclear whether the initiative would make it onto the ballot, because Florida has unusually high hurdles to clear. Could Floridians Protecting Freedom gather and verify almost 900,000 signatures from at least half of the state’s 28 congressional districts? Yes; they verified close to a million. The next hurdle is anti-abortion state officials and their court appointments. Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody filed a challenge to the proposed amendment, claiming that the language voters would see on the ballot is misleading. Her challenge was likely to find a receptive audience: Of the seven Florida Supreme Court justices who considered whether to uphold this challenge during a hearing on February 7, five were appointed by DeSantis and a sixth is married to a co-author of the state’s six-week ban.
Somehow, though, the hearing went well. Even Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz, a DeSantis appointee who led a private courthouse tour for abortion opponents in 2022, was skeptical of the idea that the ballot summary was misleading. “The people of Florida aren’t stupid,” Muñiz said. “They can figure this out.”
And it’s not because of that brief nightmare you just woke up from where Ron DeSantis was a presidential contender.
By April 1, the Florida Supreme Court will decide whether to allow Floridians to vote on a ballot measure that would enshrine a right to abortion until viability in the state Constitution, while allowing the state’s existing parental notification requirement to remain in place. As we’ve seen from the elections since the Roe was repealed, having an abortion-related initiative on the ballot has major ramifications for all other contests. In Michigan in 2022, an abortion ballot measure helped pull Democrats to victory in the governorship, the House, and the Senate.
It’s hard to overstate the stakes here. Florida not only is the last bastion of abortion access in the Southeast but also has the third-highest number of electoral votes and a memorable record of swinging presidential elections. Yes, Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020; the legislature has a Republican supermajority; and the governor flies asylum seekers to Martha’s Vineyard for kicks—but Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012. More than a dozen states could vote on abortion in 2024, but none will be significant as Florida.
Until now, it’s been unclear whether the initiative would make it onto the ballot, because Florida has unusually high hurdles to clear. Could Floridians Protecting Freedom gather and verify almost 900,000 signatures from at least half of the state’s 28 congressional districts? Yes; they verified close to a million. The next hurdle is anti-abortion state officials and their court appointments. Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody filed a challenge to the proposed amendment, claiming that the language voters would see on the ballot is misleading. Her challenge was likely to find a receptive audience: Of the seven Florida Supreme Court justices who considered whether to uphold this challenge during a hearing on February 7, five were appointed by DeSantis and a sixth is married to a co-author of the state’s six-week ban.
Somehow, though, the hearing went well. Even Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz, a DeSantis appointee who led a private courthouse tour for abortion opponents in 2022, was skeptical of the idea that the ballot summary was misleading. “The people of Florida aren’t stupid,” Muñiz said. “They can figure this out.”
