Iowa

rurallib

(62,460 posts) Tue Sep 30, 2014, 03:19 PM Sep 2014

I still think the DMR poll is wrong

They have been wrong before. Ernst continues to stay fairly static at @ 44% - short of the needed 50% to win.
The key will be to not be discouraged and help get the vote out however you can.

We are somewhat incapacitated this year so we are doing signs and letters to the editor along with monetary contributions.

Vote early to be sure you get that vote in. Encourage friends and acquaintances to do so also. I still believe Braley will win and surprise all with the margin.

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

I still think the DMR poll is wrong (Original Post) rurallib Sep 2014 OP

The modeling may be off. Dawson Leery Sep 2014 #1

I actually think I got a call for this poll rurallib Sep 2014 #2

You are leaning towards the Republican candidate? Am I missing something here? CurtEastPoint Sep 2014 #3

read the post - rurallib Sep 2014 #5

I get it now. Thank you. CurtEastPoint Sep 2014 #7

Leaning towards Ernst? Dawson Leery Sep 2014 #4

Read #5 above - perhaps I wasn't clear enough in #2 rurallib Sep 2014 #6

Cheese & Crackers people read all the words!!!!!!!!!!! IADEMO2004 Sep 2014 #8

Rurallib appreciates these kind words rurallib Sep 2014 #10

GOTV! blkmusclmachine Sep 2014 #9

PPP has him two point behind too. 10% still undecided. progressoid Oct 2014 #11

Making a democratic candidate seem undesirable rurallib Oct 2014 #13

And they have deep pockets. progressoid Oct 2014 #14

And of course, per the law, they are in no way coordinated rurallib Oct 2014 #15

Riiiiight. Not coordinated at all. progressoid Oct 2014 #16

Wonder if/when the Harkin ad will air? I hear his endorsement at the fry was compelling. n/t slumcamper Oct 2014 #12

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

1. The modeling may be off.

Reply to rurallib (Original post)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 03:36 PM

Sep 2014

Ernst is stuck at 44.5% (avg), while Braley is moving around in every direction.

The pollsters may be asuming a turnout similar to 2010, maybe slightly lower for Democrats, maybe slightly higher.

I also read the DMR poll has Vilsack down 19 points a month before he was elected to the governorship in 1998.

rurallib

(62,460 posts)

2. I actually think I got a call for this poll

Reply to Dawson Leery (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 03:45 PM

Sep 2014

It was after a rather trying day and I am prone to lying to pollsters to see which way the questions go. Often these turn out to be push polls and usually push polls for Republicans. I try to jot down the questions and then get back to the campaign to let them know.

Well it wasn't a push poll and I said I was leaning for Ernst (we voted last week). The name of the polling company sounded familiar. I don't read the register and saw the name for the first time in a Kos article today.

CurtEastPoint

(18,668 posts)

3. You are leaning towards the Republican candidate? Am I missing something here?

Reply to rurallib (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 03:49 PM

Sep 2014

rurallib

(62,460 posts)

5. read the post -

Reply to CurtEastPoint (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 04:00 PM

Sep 2014

I frequently get push polls - they sneak these in - I want to hear what their questions are (phrasing etc) so I when I get a call that says they are a poll I will usually answer undecided leaning Republican. This then usually gives them the signal to launch into their scuzzy questions which I try to record. Then I will contact the campaign or local Dem office with my info.

It has come in rather handy in a couple of races in past years. I also always try to find out where the call is coming from - what state or city. Republicans often use a service from Utah, so if they say Utah I know who's calling. This call refused to identify where they were calling from which made me even more suspect.

We voted last week - I filled in one oval. Need I tell you which oval I filled in?

BTW - we are the prototypical Republican demographic - white, older, rural - and yes I have vote in the Republican primary here when we do not have contests because I so love voting against Terry Branstad.

CurtEastPoint

(18,668 posts)

7. I get it now. Thank you.

Reply to rurallib (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 04:47 PM

Sep 2014

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

4. Leaning towards Ernst?

Reply to rurallib (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 03:51 PM

Sep 2014

Do you want to explain this?

rurallib

(62,460 posts)

6. Read #5 above - perhaps I wasn't clear enough in #2

Reply to Dawson Leery (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 04:04 PM

Sep 2014

I am a died in the wool dem in the Bernie Sanders vein but I get a lot of push polls due to my demographics. Sometimes to find out where a push poll is going you have to answer that you are undecided or leaning Republican. Times when I stated I was a democrat the phone goes dead and I don't find out what the push questions are.

Well - this wasn't a push poll - fooled me.

IADEMO2004

(5,565 posts)

8. Cheese & Crackers people read all the words!!!!!!!!!!!

Reply to rurallib (Reply #6)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 05:08 PM

Sep 2014

No wonder republicans can get elected. You follow the Iowa group and don't know rurallib???

rurallib

(62,460 posts)

10. Rurallib appreciates these kind words

Reply to IADEMO2004 (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 06:16 PM

Sep 2014

A republican will be skewered in your honor

blkmusclmachine

(16,149 posts)

9. GOTV!

Reply to rurallib (Original post)

Tue Sep 30, 2014, 05:42 PM

Sep 2014

progressoid

(49,999 posts)

11. PPP has him two point behind too. 10% still undecided.

Reply to rurallib (Original post)

Wed Oct 1, 2014, 01:43 AM

Oct 2014

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_9301982.pdf

On the plus side, Braley is apparently getting more Repub crossover support than Ernst is getting from Dems. But his favorability is dropping. I fear Karl's negative ads might be working.

Even though the horse race numbers haven't changed much, this is the first time we've found Ernst with a better net favorability rating than Braley. Ernst is at -4 with 42% of voters rating her favorably to 46% with a negative opinion, numbers that are up from a -10 spread at 36/46 in August. Meanwhile Braley's numbers continue their slow decline-he has a -7 rating with 37% rating him favorably and 44% holding an unfavorable opinion, down from -4 at 37/41 last month. Braley's favorability has dropped a net 17 points from where it was when we first polled a Braley/Ernst match up in July of 2013 and he was at +10 (34/24).

Both candidates have a pretty good lock on their party base. Only 5% of Democrats are crossing over to support Ernst, and just 8% of Republicans are crossing over to support Braley. The key for Ernst is with independent voters- she has a 45/35 advantage with them.

rurallib

(62,460 posts)

13. Making a democratic candidate seem undesirable

Reply to progressoid (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 1, 2014, 08:28 PM

Oct 2014

is their major weapon. And the usual tactic is to lie, lie, lie and then let the Dem try to explain their accusations. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.