Kentucky

n2doc

(47,953 posts) Sat Apr 4, 2015, 01:42 PM Apr 2015

Did 4 out of 10 Kentucky Democrats vote for Mitch McConnell last year?

If you're a Kentucky Democratic Party official still reeling from the results of last year's U.S. Senate race, you might want to look away.

Forty-three percent of Democrats who voted pulled the lever for Mitch McConnell last year, according to an analysis done by the U.S. Senate majority leader's longtime pollster, Jan van LoHuisen. In some counties, that number was close to 70 percent.

McConnell's analysis of voting trends gives him a much larger advantage among Democrats than did exit polling conducted last November, which showed 19 percent of Democrats voted for the Republican incumbent instead of his Democratic challenger, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.

McConnell's team, looking at voting data posted by the Secretary of State's office, drew their conclusions using a method called ecological inference — the process of using patterns in aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level actions. Van LoHuisen said he relied on statistical procedures and software designed by Harvard professor Gary King to enhance the accuracy of ecological inference.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2015/04/03/3782981_sam-youngman-did-4-out-of-10-kentucky.html

9 replies

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Did 4 out of 10 Kentucky Democrats vote for Mitch McConnell last year? (Original Post) n2doc Apr 2015 OP

Even exit polls showing 19 percent is awful yeoman6987 Apr 2015 #1

IF Old Codger Apr 2015 #2

And keep in mind, SheilaT Apr 2015 #3

Even in KY, if the Democrats ran an actual Democrat instead of a pale imitation of one... tularetom Apr 2015 #4

and these are all lefty Dems, right? of course if not they're to blame for moving the party too MisterP Apr 2015 #5

There has been an fredamae Apr 2015 #6

The 14 Defining Characteristics Of Fascism (http://www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm): blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #7

I work for the 1%. TRUST ME. blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #8

Pic URL: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/04/magazine/06voti190.3.jpg blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #9

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)

1. Even exit polls showing 19 percent is awful

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 01:47 PM

Apr 2015

What are they thinking. We are worried about getting Democratic voters to the polls...good. But we have to ensure they vote Democratic too. I find that hard to believe 1 in 5 Democratic voters voted for Repugs? Won't even entertain his numbers which are suicidal if true.

Old Codger

(4,205 posts)

2. IF

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 02:05 PM

Apr 2015

They voted for him they are not Dems...No other way for it to be.

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)

3. And keep in mind,

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 02:23 PM

Apr 2015

it was widely assumed that most Republican women would cross party lines to vote for a woman, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and that didn't happen.

Grimes's loss, as well as Wendy Davis's in Texas, should make people understand that there is not as huge a yearning for women Senators, Governors, or Presidents as they think.

tularetom

(23,664 posts)

4. Even in KY, if the Democrats ran an actual Democrat instead of a pale imitation of one...

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 02:26 PM

Apr 2015

When the voters have to choose between two republicans, one of whom has a "D" after their name, who can blame them for choosing the one who can steer a lot of pork their way.

MisterP

(23,730 posts)

5. and these are all lefty Dems, right? of course if not they're to blame for moving the party too

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 02:39 PM

Apr 2015

far left!
yes it's needed

fredamae

(4,458 posts)

6. There has been an

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 03:15 PM

Apr 2015

awful lot of disenfranchised, pissed off Republicans who loath the radical shift to "the crazy" in their party. Democrats do not hold any sort of monopoly on being pissed off at our leadership and leaving the party. So, many GOP switched to the Democratic Party.....but that doesn't mean they won't selectively vote for what used to be "their own".
They must have Believed McConnell's sob stories about being victimized by Reid and the Dem Senate Majority.

Even tho the new session is only a few weeks old...and in spite of the fact they've already taken Many work days off....If we miraculously got a "do-over" for the 2014 election right now, I'm guessing the outcome would be very different based upon observed GOP performance since they took Full control.

I'm sure it's much more complicated than just one "thing"...coupled with the fact the GOP is way better at lying (they call it, messaging)that may be a part of it.

blkmusclmachine

(16,149 posts)

7. The 14 Defining Characteristics Of Fascism (http://www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm):

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 04:38 PM

Apr 2015

http://www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm

14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

blkmusclmachine

(16,149 posts)

8. I work for the 1%. TRUST ME.

Reply to n2doc (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2015, 04:41 PM

Apr 2015

blkmusclmachine

(16,149 posts)

9. Pic URL: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/04/magazine/06voti190.3.jpg