New York
Related: About this forumCan Michael Grimm Win Re-election Now?
Ross Barkan
Despite threatening to throw a reporter off a balcony and allegedly having sex in a wine bar bathroom, Congressman Michael Grimm was arguably a favorite to win re-election at this time last week.
But Monday’s indictment on a slew of wire, mail fraud and other charges badly damages the Republican’s chances of surviving a challenge by Domenic Recchia Jr., a former Brooklyn councilman, observers say.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group that analyzes House and Senate races across the country and is known for its accurate forecasts, announced on Monday it believes the district now leans Democratic instead of Republican–a major blow to Mr. Grimm, who has dismissed the charges as a “political witch hunt” and vowed to remain in the race.
“As long as the Republicans stick with Grimm on the ballot, they’re probably going to lose the district in the fall,” Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Observer, reflecting on the state of the race.
Read more at http://observer.com/2014/04/can-michael-grimm-win-re-election-now/#ixzz30E1wz5vI
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Historic NY
(37,449 posts)than the election trail.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)
SummerSnow
(12,608 posts)" I'll break you...like a boy"
Now look at him the bully
It's his own fault.
Gothmog
(145,279 posts)DeLay was indicted in 2005 but ran for reelection in order to raise funds for legal defense fune. DeLay won the primary but due to Texas election code he could not bet off the ballot unless he died or had two doctors certify that he could not serve. The GOP tried to replace DeLay but the Democrats sued and kept the GOP from replacing DeLay on the ballot. DeLay took the excess money raised in the primary and transferred these funds to his legal defense fund.
As a result of this litigation, the GOP relied on a write in campaign but lost in 2006. Nick Lampson won in 2006 but was defeated in 2008 by Pete Olson. That was in R+11 district.
As I understand it, the GOP is stuck with Grimm. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/04/gop-stuck-with-michael-grimm-state-republicans-say-timing-political/
The New York state GOP cites three ways to get a nominee off the ballot in the state. One: a nominee needs to be convicted of a crime, but it’s unlikely that would happen before November. Two: the candidate would need to move out of his district. The third is the most eyebrow-raising option, with a nomination of Grimm to the state Supreme Court giving him a way off the ballot because no candidate can be on the ballot in two places in New York.
In other words, Grimm, 44, would have to agree to work with the party in moving into another district or be willing to be nominated to a judgeship. He has sworn his innocence and has pledged to keep fighting, however, so without a change of heart, it’s likely he will remain the nominee.
Based on the 2006, Texas CD 22 history, I think that the Democrats have a good chance of picking up this seat. BTW, there are rumors that DeLay intend to run in 2016 for his old seat if the Court of Criminal Appeals does not reinstate his sentence.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)The gop have an assembly woman to take over if they get him off the bsllot.
Gothmog
(145,279 posts)DeLay actually moved to Virginia but that was not sufficient under Texas law. The GOP tried to replace DeLay and the Democrats sued to prevent this. Judge Sparks (a Bush appointee) wrote a wonderful opinion keeping the GOP from breaking the law.
If the GOP tries to get Grimm off the ballot, I would expect to see some litigation.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)He has a huge ego.
Gothmog
(145,279 posts)This will be fun to watch. If the GOP has any deep pockets they could fund a legal defense fund for Grimm in exchange for him moving. That move would generate some really bad press and this seat is a district that President Obama won in 2012.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)The pundits forget the Brooklyn part and our part goes Democratic.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Sally Goldenberg
Congressional candidate and former councilman Domenic Recchia got a shout-out Monday from fellow Democrat Bill de Blasio, who said the indictment of Republican congressman Michael Grimm is "sad" and unsurprising, and will make it easier for Recchia to grab his seat in this year's election.
"I wish I could say it was a surprise," the mayor said, in response to a question at a tech-sector event in Manhattan. "I think it's something that has been anticipated for a long time. I think it's sad every time one of these things happens."
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/city-hall/2014/04/8544401/de-blasio-grimm-recchias-challenge
