It was the same phenomena in 2018 where the TFG voters stayed home. This is the first test to see if they are the personality cult that we believe they are. They are only voting for TFG while voting up and down the ballot for other republicans.

Kind of sad though, because if this theory is proven to be true, I could see the right wing media immediately shifting and lining up behind TFG again for these voters. Though, even republican wins, I know for sure TFG will claim credit either way. Him running in 2024 is probably just unavoidable at this point.

I 100% agree with you about TFG voters staying home. This might be the story that all of the so-called pundits failed to predict. I know in my local area there were about ten houses that had TFG signs as well as a few of those having some other GOP candidate signs and this year nothing. Nada. Republicans were able to ride TFG's coattails in 2016 and 2020 but since he is not on the ballot nor in office, his hardcore supporters don't care as much.

I'm not sure pollsters, political analysts, pundits, journalists really understand or can acknowledge just how charismatic Trump is. Regardless how one might feel about Trump (love through hate), it's undeniable he is very similar to other charismatic leaders. His voters only have eyes for him. That doesn't translate over to other candidates. Trump endorsed Mastriano, but that was after Mastriano had been ahead in all the polls and was a pretty sure bet to win the R primary. His Oz endorsement certainly didn't result in Oz pulling away from McCormick.

it really is full of Magats. Good to hear that voting is down.

I will get a report from her in a bit, she moved to Allison Park.

Kind of in keeping with the anecdotal yard sign observations indicating a lack of enthusiasm among Rs, especially Trumpers.

There is zero enthusiasm for Republican candidates except among the hardcore party loyalists. On the other hand, there is a great deal of enthusiasm for Democratic candidates such as Josh Shapiro for governor and John Fetterman for Senate.

going to vote in Allegheny county, I will get a report.

Last edited Tue Nov 8, 2022, 12:45 PM - Edit history (1)

My precinct is in Lancaster, a blue city in a red county. I was the only voter in the poll at 8:30, but the polls opened at 7 and I'm hoping that many voted on their way to work or will vote this evening. There were three poll workers and no poll watchers (that I could see) present when I voted. A Democrat and one R were outside with literature.

My daughter and her husband already voted by mail and my son will vote later today. My companion and her daughter voted this morning. All of them are Democrats.

Voting was easy. Now comes the long wait for the results.

Go Josh Shapiro & Austin Davis, John Fetterman, US House candidate Bob Hollister (he's opposing election denier Lloyd Smucker), and PA House incumbent Mike Sturla!

Red District. Waited behind about 5 folks. Election workers said they were busy (as usual). Some young folks but most were middle to later ages. I saw one of the ladies I worked with for the Twp (she's a staunch Repub); always liked her even if we're now on different sides.

Dem for all candidates and write in for state rep with no D candidate.

A couple of asides for what they are worth. Dems held first position on all races (except where there was no Dem). Had a pad to check my registration information and had to sign in online (they let me keep the stylus). I have no idea how you vote if you don't have a permanent address the way the sign in was set up. Also, there is no way on earth anyone is going to be able to protest based on the signature. It was like signing for your credit card; it doesn't look anything like my actual signature on paper.

That is all.

Last edited Tue Nov 8, 2022, 05:49 PM - Edit history (1)

I work on Mturk and one requester posted exit polls to transcribe. Most of them so far have been Shapiro/Fetterman, a few split, and very few Mastriano/Oz. Responses to some of the questions (there's a bunch of different formats) are interesting at the very least, and there's quite a few people that abortion is a top issue (to the dismay of MSGREEDIA)

committeewoman who was handing out literature. There are 1727 registered voters in the precinct. It's the largest in my township. As of 5PM, based on what the exiting voters told me, between 750 and 800 people had already voted in person. That works out to around 80 voters/hour and extrapolates to just over 1,000 votes not including the mail ballots, of which there are probably a couple hundred that will be majority Dem votes. Turnout will be good, probably around 70%, but short of the 2020 88% and 2016 79%.

The voters I observed over the 45 minutes I was there who were entering and exiting the poll all looked serious. There were a good number of women, most unaccompanied, and younger folks who looked to be Millenials and maybe an older Gen Z or two.

website. It's a mixed bag for reporting election day and mail ballots. Some counties reported the mail votes first, some are doing in person first, some have a mix of both. Mail ballots seem to be heavily Dem even in the red counties.

Fetterman winning both the in person and mail votes in Centre (Penn State/State College) and Lackawanna counties. So far he's holding his own in Washington county at about 50/50.

Fetterman really blowing it out in Philadelphia.. one R pundit on the KDKA roundtable countered a Dem pundit who said if Fetterman leaves Phila with 515k lead he'll win by saying "no way" then added how else would the roundtable keep things interesting.