Pennsylvania
Related: About this forumNew poll finds Corbett closing to 7 points
A new survey shows Gov. Tom Corbett (R) trailing Democratic challenger Tom Wolf, 49 percent to 42 percent, the tightest margin between the two candidates in any public poll so far.
The poll, released Friday by the news website Keystone Report, was conducted by Magellan Strategies, a GOP-leaning research firm based in Baton Rouge, La. It suggests a much closer race than other recent surveys, and is in line with what Pennsylvania Republicans say they have been seeing in private polls.
A poll conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5 by Quinnipiac University, for instance, found that Wolf was leading by 17 percentage points.
The Real Clear Politics poll aggregator puts Wolfs lead at an average of 11 percentage points, with slightly more than two weeks to go in the campaign.
<snip>
The pollster said the biggest difference between its finding and those of other recent polls is that the weighting of its responses assumes a lower relative turnout of Democrats compared to Republicans. Magellan said the assumption fits the state's historical turnout patterns in non-presidential election years.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/New-poll-finds-Corbett-closing-to-7-points.html#TwZRv6maYYb67Xzp.99
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Not only that they are assuming dems won't go to the polls. Even pushing on the scale as hard as they can they still can't get Corbett to win. I wish we had as easy time switching our legislature as we do our governor. Even if Wolf wins the repubs will hold on to the state legislature and probably carry the majority of congressional seats (even if dems receive more votes than repubs).
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)help in GOTV efforts in the Philly region for Wolf.
JPZenger
(6,819 posts)I welcome close polls. It will motivate turnout, which will not only help Wolf, but also help other Dems running for the Legislature.
Curmudgeoness
(18,219 posts)I was polled on the governor's race, as well as other races, and at one point I was asked how I classify myself---very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. When I answered "very liberal", the phone disconnected. Weird.
And since I didn't finish the poll, I suppose that my answers had to be thrown out. It is interesting how these polls can work.
PADemD
(4,482 posts)I had the same experience with the phone poll; and, since I am a Super Voter, I have received mailings from the PA Republican Party every week.
Curmudgeoness
(18,219 posts)Let them try to fudge the numbers. It will only cause shock on election day when they lose---remember Romney's reaction? He believed the fake polls.
Blue Owl
(50,427 posts)n/t
femmocrat
(28,394 posts)It's not 22 points anymore, but still substantial. Wolf said don't be complacent. The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 6.
durablend
(7,460 posts)There's a LOT of brain-dead zombies that'll be voting for Corbett just because he's Republican (this while the same people will attack US as being "ill-informed and stupid"