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modrepub

(3,496 posts)
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 12:56 PM Oct 2014

New poll finds Corbett closing to 7 points

A new survey shows Gov. Tom Corbett (R) trailing Democratic challenger Tom Wolf, 49 percent to 42 percent, the tightest margin between the two candidates in any public poll so far.

The poll, released Friday by the news website Keystone Report, was conducted by Magellan Strategies, a GOP-leaning research firm based in Baton Rouge, La. It suggests a much closer race than other recent surveys, and is in line with what Pennsylvania Republicans say they have been seeing in private polls.

A poll conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5 by Quinnipiac University, for instance, found that Wolf was leading by 17 percentage points.

The Real Clear Politics poll aggregator puts Wolf’s lead at an average of 11 percentage points, with slightly more than two weeks to go in the campaign.

<snip>

The pollster said the biggest difference between its finding and those of other recent polls is that the weighting of its responses assumes a lower relative turnout of Democrats compared to Republicans. Magellan said the assumption fits the state's historical turnout patterns in non-presidential election years.



Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/New-poll-finds-Corbett-closing-to-7-points.html#TwZRv6maYYb67Xzp.99

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New poll finds Corbett closing to 7 points (Original Post) modrepub Oct 2014 OP
That is a Republican pollster with a bad track record. hrmjustin Oct 2014 #1
Yup modrepub Oct 2014 #3
This Rethug leaning poll will Dawson Leery Oct 2014 #5
Close polls increase turnout JPZenger Oct 2014 #2
Let's talk about the "weighting" of these polls. Curmudgeoness Oct 2014 #4
Phone disconnect PADemD Oct 2014 #6
That's ok. Curmudgeoness Oct 2014 #7
He's gonna need a lot more Photoshopped black friends to bridge that gap Blue Owl Oct 2014 #8
MSNBC had Wolf at 51 to Corbutt at 40. 10/21/14 femmocrat Oct 2014 #9
Keep in mind durablend Oct 2014 #10

modrepub

(3,496 posts)
3. Yup
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 01:03 PM
Oct 2014

Not only that they are assuming dems won't go to the polls. Even pushing on the scale as hard as they can they still can't get Corbett to win. I wish we had as easy time switching our legislature as we do our governor. Even if Wolf wins the repubs will hold on to the state legislature and probably carry the majority of congressional seats (even if dems receive more votes than repubs).

JPZenger

(6,819 posts)
2. Close polls increase turnout
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 01:02 PM
Oct 2014

I welcome close polls. It will motivate turnout, which will not only help Wolf, but also help other Dems running for the Legislature.

Curmudgeoness

(18,219 posts)
4. Let's talk about the "weighting" of these polls.
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 01:16 PM
Oct 2014

I was polled on the governor's race, as well as other races, and at one point I was asked how I classify myself---very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. When I answered "very liberal", the phone disconnected. Weird.

And since I didn't finish the poll, I suppose that my answers had to be thrown out. It is interesting how these polls can work.

PADemD

(4,482 posts)
6. Phone disconnect
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 02:56 PM
Oct 2014

I had the same experience with the phone poll; and, since I am a Super Voter, I have received mailings from the PA Republican Party every week.

Curmudgeoness

(18,219 posts)
7. That's ok.
Mon Oct 20, 2014, 02:59 PM
Oct 2014

Let them try to fudge the numbers. It will only cause shock on election day when they lose---remember Romney's reaction? He believed the fake polls.

femmocrat

(28,394 posts)
9. MSNBC had Wolf at 51 to Corbutt at 40. 10/21/14
Tue Oct 21, 2014, 07:36 PM
Oct 2014

It's not 22 points anymore, but still substantial. Wolf said don't be complacent. The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 6.

durablend

(7,460 posts)
10. Keep in mind
Wed Oct 29, 2014, 11:43 AM
Oct 2014

There's a LOT of brain-dead zombies that'll be voting for Corbett just because he's Republican (this while the same people will attack US as being "ill-informed and stupid&quot

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