In Virginia, It’s Tradition Versus Change

<snip>Polling of the presidential race in Virginia has been particularly volatile. Since the beginning of October, polls at various points have shown both a seven-point lead for Mitt Romney and a seven-point lead for President Obama.

The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar. <snip>

<snip>Mr. Obama is a 71 percent favorite in Virginia, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The model projects Virginia to be one of the closest states, with Mr. Obama prevailing by 1.5 percentage points. If Mr. Romney over-performs his polling even slightly on Election Day, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes will end up in the Republican column.

Mr. Obama carried Virginia in 2008 by far exceeding John Kerry’s 2004 vote totals in Hampton Roads, the Richmond area and especially in the Washington suburbs.

Virginia “has moved further left since 2008,” Mr. Palazzolo said, “but Romney is more acceptable to moderate Republicans. The McCain and Palin ticket didn’t sell very well with moderate Republican-leaners in Northern Virginia.”

Suburban communities, particularly in Northern Virginia, are likely to decide who carries the state again this year. Prince William, Loudoun, and Henrico Counties may prove decisive, Mr. Skelley said. All are densely populated, and all were won by Mr. Bush in 2004 and by Mr. Obama 2008.

“The candidates who can win the suburbs have always won,” Mr. Skelley said. “In recent years, the suburbs have become more liberal, which has made it easier for Democrats.”<snip>

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/in-virginia-its-tradition-versus-change/
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Come on Virginia, let's make VA blue! GOTV!