UW model: Washington could start safely reopening May 18

SEATTLE (AP) — Modelers at the University of Washington are starting to tackle a big question as the arc of the novel coronavirus pandemic appears to be flattening in places like Washington state: When will it be safe to begin loosening restrictions keeping the virus in check?

According to the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Washington could cross that threshold the week of May 18, the Seattle Times reported. Estimates for other states range from as early as May 4 to as late as the end of June, based on the local status of the epidemic.

The latest projections are an outgrowth of IHME’s continued work to forecast the scope of the epidemic in every state and in several other countries. They come as the group’s work, which has been influential from the White House to statehouses, is attracting criticism from some disease experts.

In a media briefing Friday, IHME director Dr. Chris Murray cautioned that the potential “opening dates” represent a first take and are likely to change as more information comes in from individual states. Among the key variables are whether deaths are likely to drop sharply once they peak, or whether — as seems to be occurring in New York — they will plateau and decrease slowly.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/uw-model-washington-could-start-safely-reopening-may-18/ar-BB12Q1U2