A Republican Midterm Election Victory Isn't Assured - WSJ Editorial

Last edited Thu Aug 11, 2022, 02:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Cross posting from the Editorial Forum because Wisconsin is featured prominently

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016328952

With November’s midterms still three months away, the predicted red wave may be breaking far from the electoral shore. Tuesday’s elections were another sign that Democratic voters are becoming more motivated.

In Wisconsin Mr. Trump notched another endorsement victory when Republicans nominated Tim Michels for Governor. It’s no mystery how he earned Mr. Trump’s favor. Asked at a recent candidate forum about the Jan. 6 riot, Mr. Michels said: “I don’t think he did anything wrong.” Asked about trying to decertify the 2020 election, he said: “I will look at all the evidence and everything will be on the table.” Perhaps Mr. Michels is limber enough to pivot now that he has the nomination, but the actual reason Mr. Trump lost Wisconsin in 2020 was that thousands of Republicans didn’t vote for him.

But if Democratic Gov. Tony Evers can turn the race into a rehashing of Mr. Trump’s grievances, GOP swing voters might stay swung. Republican nominees will have the same problem in Arizona and Michigan. Another Wisconsin warning was the narrow win by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. Mr. Trump phoned Mr. Vos last month to demand 2020 decertification. Mr. Vos said no. Mr. Trump called him names and backed a primary challenger, Adam Steen, who told a reporter he’d “definitely outlaw contraception.” Mr. Vos’s survival is a dose of sanity, but it was a 260-vote margin.

In some places Democratic turnout seems stronger than anticipated. On Tuesday Minnesota had a special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn. Republican Brad Finstad won as expected, but by only four points. This is a rural district along the Iowa border, where Mr. Trump won by 10 points. Republicans also won a special House election in Nebraska this summer more narrowly than expected.

(snip)

California, Kentucky, Montana and Vermont have abortion referendums scheduled for November. Republican candidates who could otherwise eke out victories might instead be swamped by Democratic turnout. .. Democrats would prefer to talk about Mr. Trump. Characteristically, so would Mr. Trump, and he has ensured GOP nominees who agree. The lesson of recent primaries is that this election is far from won, even in the House.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-republican-victory-isnt-assured-gop-midterms-elections-tony-evers-robin-vos-tim-michels-11660167764 (subscription)