Liam Fox, the former defence secretary who resigned in disgrace from the then coalition government in 2011, has also confirmed he will stand. Boris Johnson and Theresa May, the two favourites, are set to formally declare on Thursday.

Fox, an avowed Brexit supporter, told LBC radio he wanted to “paint an optimistic picture of our country”, arguing that as a former minister he would bring expertise to the role.

Asked what he would bring as leader that Johnson would not, Fox said: “It’s a question, I think, of nuance, of experience, of background, which of course matter in politics. It’s a matter of setting out a very clear stall. I think we can’t allow the Conservative leadership campaign to be totally dominated by the issues of the referendum – there are many other issues I care passionately about.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/stephen-crabb-conservatives-defends-opposition-to-gay-marriage

Very important that we focus on the individual obstacles and thoroughly overcome them before moving to the next. I really think Michael needs to have a Henry or a Beth with him for this morning’s crucial meetings.

Analysis: That “we” is very telling. There is nothing unusual about a wife, or husband, offering their spouse support but that “we” suggests that the Gove/Vine operation is something of a duopoly. It is very House of Cards. Or, as Sky’s Kay Burley has said slightly less charitably, it makes Sarah Vine sound rather like Lady Macbeth.

The references to Henry and Beth are to Gove’s special advisers, Henry Cook, Henry Newman and Beth Armstrong. It is normal for cabinet ministers to take their advisers with them into meetings but there is a suggestion here that Gove needs to have someone sitting alongside him to strengthen his resolve. (This is surprising. Of the many complaints about Gove as a minister, lack of steel is not one. It is not spelt who the meetings are with, but they may well be Boris Johnson, and perhaps Gove finds it harder saying no to Johnson than he did to government colleagues.)

One simple message: You MUST have SPECIFIC assurances from Boris OTHERWISE you cannot guarantee your support. The details can be worked out later on, but without that you have no leverage.

Analysis: This is where Vine sets out the Gove/Vine negotiation red line. Sadly, the email does not say what those specific assurances are. A job? A policy commitment? Or perhaps both? But the key point is that Vine is describing this as a transaction. And she is also implying that Johnson cannot be trusted; the assurances have to be “specific” otherwise Johnson will not be bound by them. (Students of Boris Johnson would point out that even if Johnson has made a specific promise, that is no guarantee that he will keep it, but that’s another story.) And those capital letters are worth noting too. It is the epistolary equivalent of a rant. (At the risk of sounding like Kay Burley, Lady Macbeth would have typed her messages in caps if they had had email in 11th-century Scotland.)

Crucially, the membership will not have the necessary reassurance to back Boris, neither will Dacre/Murdoch, who instinctively dislike Boris but trust your ability enough to support a Boris Gove ticket.

Analysis: This reinforces the point about Johnson being untrustworthy. Vine’s claim that the party membership will need reassurance to back Johnson is surprising, because the regular ConservativeHome survey shows that members do support Johnson. But Vine is surely right when she talks about Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre (the editor of the Daily Mail). Vine used to work at the Times, and now works for the Mail, and therefore surely knows the internal politics of both media groups extremely well. Murdoch is known to be a strong supporter of Gove’s, and it is thought that Dacre rates him highly too (although the Mail may have its doubts about Gove’s liberal prisons agenda). The crucial claim is that Murdoch and Dacre “instinctively dislike” Johnson. If this is true, in Dacre’s case it may be because of Johnson’s womanising, and in Murdoch’s case it may be because of Johnson’s core liberalism. Vine says Gove’s key value to Johnson is his ability to win over Britain’s two most powerful press barons. Who said the power of the press was waning?

Do not concede any ground. Be your stubborn best.

Analysis: Or, as Lady M put it, “Screw your courage to the sticking place.” Kay Burley’s comparison seems more and more apt.