really can't vote there. But my bet is that the majority do NOT want to leave the EU and will vote to stay IN, thus my vote.

Brexit will possibly also spell the end of the UK. .. Scotland will want another referendum and a Scotland outside the European Union will want back in.

i'm an 'inner', if not without reservations, dislikes, and worries - primarily about the EU's ability to create policies that work for 27 (?) member states with some pretty spectacular differences between them, and connected to that, the EU's ability to work to suppport the Eurozone while also supporting those countries that don't use the €...

in terms of my prediction for the referendum, i see it being tight all the way to referendum day, at which point the shere overwhelming weight of business, political and media opinion for 'in' will come to bear - helped by the fact that the 'out' side can't tell anyone what the shape of UK-EU relations would look like after a Brexit.

i'd put good money on 55/45 for 'in', and i'd not be that shocked if it does to 60/40.

for all the heat of the anti-EU movement, only one senior cabinret minister has joined, along with two more juniors, not one single senior shadow cabinet member has joined, and while the Daily Express will certainly go for for 'out', i wouldn't be surprised if the rest, even though the EU gets them foaming, decides that 'In' is an illusion...

http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/datatablesfeb2016.pdf

Of those who answered 'remain' or 'leave' (ie all "don't knows" stripped out), leave wins 52% to 48%; among "likely to vote 7 or more out of 10", that increases to 55% to 45%; for "10 out of 10 certain", it's 58% to 42%.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf

This shows the undecided, and it's 25%. So that is significant, but like the ORB poll, this YouGov one again shows a slightly higher likelihood to vote among the 'leave's, which are also slightly ahead overall. 60/40 looks pretty unlikely to me. It would need almost all of the undecideds to vote 'remain', or significant 'leaves' to give up.

with Scottish votrers preferring to remain.

I think it would be better for UK to remain, and genuinely work for improving the lot of Europeans as a whole (eg. more democracy - empower the EU parliament, introduce 'eurobonds'), rather than just seeking to benefit UK elite interests (ie. The City). But that's a dream.

Personally, I'll remain amongst the Celtic & Mediterranean peoples of Iberia, obtaining citizenship if necessary.

What worries me is the amount of airtime given to the Tories in the No campaign. It's given the impression it's an internal Tory matter, not something that affects everyone. There's also a huge generational split, but getting young people to vote has never been easy. On Friday's Last Leg there was a Twitter poll #Lastlegin or #Lastleg out. The result was overwhelmingly for staying in 70% to 30%. That's not surprising considering the demographic. I just hope the same people who tweeted #Lastlegin will actually vote.

There's still a lot of undecideds too.

personally i think that those who are undecided at this stage could be split into two blocs, those who will swing - perhaps in the voting booth - to remain, and those who won't vote.

i simply don't see 'out' attracting many more votes, barring some catastrophic politiocal upheaval.

i genuinely think that the overwhelming political, economic/business and media majority for remain will hoover up the undecideds who will vote, and some, if not many, of the 'outs', and i genuinely think its extremely telling - and i'd put good money on it being so for others - that you can't find a single former PM, or Leader of the Oppostion, or former Foreign Secretary or former shadow FS, or Chancellor or shadow Chancellor from after 1989 who thinks that leaving the EU is a good idea.

while i accept the amongst the older demographic leave is stronger in the polls, as is the propensity to vote, among that group small 'c' concervatism is also stronger, as is fear, as is a greater likelyhood to listen and take regard to the opinions of those who have held high office.

on the last day of campaigning you'll see graphics in the newspapers of every former PM, chancellor, foreign secretary, defence secretary, leader of the opposition, shadow chancellor, shadow FS and shadow DS on one side, and on the other Nigel Falangé, George Galloway and some scruffy bloke from HIGNFY - that, imv, will be the absolute swinger.

Both IDS (remember how bad he was as Tory leader?) and Michael Howard have come out in favour of voting to leave. I'm not sure that either has that much sway with the unconvinced though. IDS especially.

shows the impact of the pair of them though, such political collusses that i'd completely forgetton they'd been party leaders!

Then I saw you'd said after 1989. Lawson is a real creepy bugger. I hope you're right and that Tabloid papers won't be able to say they're wot won it.

I'm still very nervous.

i'm nervous, its a massive thing - easily as important as the indyref, more important as the 2020 GE - so much rides on it, and the consequences, 5, 15, 50 years down the line will be enormous. only a fool wouldn't be nervous - for me its like walking through a minefield: the mines might be signposted and have little flags on them and so easily avoided, but you're still in a minefield...

of the newspapers i think only the Express will be for out, the Fail and the Scum will umm and ahh, they'll bitch about the EU but on polling day they'll be for 'in'. the broadsheets, even the most eurosceptic broadsheet like the Torygraph, will be for in.

See, for instance, their reaction to Cameron's deal: http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/feb/03/most-of-the-national-press-lashes-david-camerons-eu-settlement or http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-sun-idUKKCN0VU0BU

The Torygraph might be influenced by businesses saying it's safer to stay in.

Apparently Murdoch said that when he went to Downing Street he was listened to but when he went to Brussels he was ignored. Murdoch's got a track record of putting self interest above everything.

I'm sure some mega rich City types will do well out of less regulation and fewer workers rights and certain Tories will use this to further their careers, but the rest of us will be shafted good and proper if we leave.

To my untrained eye, "stay in" looks more likely than "leave", but not overwhelmingly so.