Hillary Clinton

LAS14

(13,783 posts) Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:57 AM Apr 2016

Who is responsible for exit polls?

We should sue them for mental anguish! (joke)

But the question isn't a joke. How can exit polls be so wrong (also remember Kerry in NH). When we were approached in our Massachusetts primary, I got the distinct impression that the pollster was operating on behalf of a variety of news organizations. He was the only one there. Do they pool their resources? If so, who are "they?" And, again, how can they be so wrong? They don't have to deal with cell phones and people hanging up.

tia
las

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Who is responsible for exit polls? (Original Post) LAS14 Apr 2016 OP

They're selective polling Treant Apr 2016 #1

Interesting points. Thanks. LAS14 Apr 2016 #4

CNN has an explanation of this on their election results pages... Princess Turandot Apr 2016 #2

Thanks! Just what I was looking for! LAS14 Apr 2016 #3

Treant

(1,968 posts)

1. They're selective polling

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:22 PM

Apr 2016

You ask 1 voter out of every X voters (or every X voters of a certain race, or however they're polling) how they voted, but they're not required to tell the truth, answer your question, or acknowledge your presence.

I've been asked, but always turned it down. I consider my vote private data.

I've also read that exit pollsters won't approach "certain people" who they think look volatile or problematic.

The candidate with the more evangelical followers (now, who could that be in this race?) tends to do better on exit polling. Candidates with voters who can afford to take a few extra minutes will do better than those who can't, if there's a discrepancy in that data.

So really, any split that would encourage or discourage talking to the pollster has an impact.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

4. Interesting points. Thanks.

Reply to Treant (Reply #1)

Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:27 PM

Apr 2016

Princess Turandot

(4,787 posts)

2. CNN has an explanation of this on their election results pages...

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:23 PM

Apr 2016

Several news agencies use Edison Research for exit polling, including AP, which many other news outlets use as their vote counter/winner projector. (The NYT, for example, doesn't show a race as called until AP does, which often is later than broadcast/cable news stations.)

Edison Research: To assist CNN in collecting and evaluating this information, CNN, the other television networks and The Associated Press have employed Edison Research. In previous elections, this firm has assisted CNN in projecting winners in state and national races. Edison will conduct exit polls, which ask voters their opinion on a variety of relevant issues, determine how they voted, and ask a number of demographic questions to allow analysis of voting patterns by group.
Using exit poll results, scientifically selected precincts, vote results from The AP, and a number of sophisticated analysis techniques, Edison also recommends projections of a winner for each race it covers.

On balance, the called 'winner' track record is far more accurate than not, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it, since it would make them look like idiots. The times that they're off in a high profile race are just more visible.

More at the link:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/30/politics/cnn-election-projections/index.html

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

3. Thanks! Just what I was looking for!

Reply to Princess Turandot (Reply #2)

Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:26 PM

Apr 2016

Reply to this discussion