I keed! I keed!

It will go to Sanders, but with the closed primary and slight demographic differences to Washington, I'd expect it to be closer than Washington was. I know a lot of Hillary people who just sat out this year's caucuses in Washington because they didn't want to get bullied, so having the primary (and vote by mail) should give her another little boost to make it closer than Washington.

But, it will go to Sanders. And don't forget, that's where the bird landed on his podium.

Last I checked HRC was quite ahead of BS, but that was awhile ago. We do make it easy to register, change affiliation, and we vote by mail so usually get a decent return. Bernie got a good turnout but rallies are not good indicators of results. I'm confident that HRC will win, bs is a shiny toy, but we are also pragmatic and like our true dems.

At least it's a closed primary, so the true rebels with an I will be in for a shock.

Good Luck with your Primary! I just figured BS would take Oregon.

The place has a rather ugly and hidden racist history that really surprises people when they learn of it.

It's why a lot of black people just do not feel welcome there, even today.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/22/oregon-racist_n_6523544.html


It doesn't matter, anyway. Sanders has a nearly impossible path to the nomination. It would take a miracle along the lines of the Parting of the Red Sea for him to realize his goal. In the meantime, though, Tad Devine has ads (and money) to make.

We'll just have to wait it out.

have visited on several occasions, love the state, but believe that OR is Bernie-friendly territory for the most part, primarily due to the university communities in Portland and Eugene. It is important to note that some parts of the state are not nearly so liberal as the urban and university areas, but those areas are fertile ground for the GOP rather than for either Dem, IMO.

Another reason I think that Bernie will likely win there is because Senator Jeff Merkley endorsed him last week. Merkley is very popular in OR and as a comparatively recent arrival in DC (2008), still has close ties to the state who may have influenced his endorsement, which indicates to me that he has a sense of how his state may vote. He has not to my knowledge ever worked with Hillary in the Senate but, to his credit, did not say anything against her in his endorsement of Bernie.

As others have mentioned, the facts in Hillary's favor are that it is a primary, not a caucus, and is closed. Whatever happens there, however, Hillary will continue to accumulate delegates. Nate Silver sets her delegate target goal at 24/61 and Bernie's at 37/61, so Nate has apparently factored in a loss there.

IMO, if she does better than 24/61, it would be as good as an outright win. I believe that is possible.

wanted it and he didn't want to go against them.

No was else who has worked with BS wants him.

My daughter and her family are in Portland.

Blue~

but then our country is truly blessed to have so many beautiful places to live! Cha!

Oh well, it really should be pretty much over by then anyways, esp if Hillary sweeps April 26th.

Thanks for the insights.

for Hillary if voters have not registered as Dems by the registration deadline.

I suspect that most of those who support Hillary ARE Dems already, while many of those who support Bernie are not. Bernie's campaign is getting smarter about reminding his supporters to register as Dems for closed primaries, however. It will depend on how many of them can actually tear themselves away from their "click" buttons long enough to do so.

If Bernie loses OR, I fully expect that we'll see the usual allegations of fraud from the usual suspects. Such people never tire of their "victimhood" and finding scapegoats instead of realizing that Hillary is a very popular candidate, in fact. It's practically become an industry for them.

OR may also be slightly better for Hillary because of its larger percentage of Latinos. https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-oregon

I am VERY optimistic about her being able to meet the FiveThirtyEight target goals. I am even quite optimistic about her being able to exceed them. But Bernie may just get the edge to win.

I will be ecstatic to be proven wrong in my assessment.

Best case for Bernie: gain of 5 delegates.

Worst case for him: Slight popular vote lead, even delegate split.

A lot of people in OR hinge their identity on being "independent" - Portland is one of the hipster capitals of the US. So a lot of them were Paulites, because they are young, white, middle class, and the regressive social policies of the repukes won't be a problem for them. Those are now Bernie supporters...(not surprisingly. Bernie's disinterest in intersectionality won't harm them either.)

that resulted in one of my first alerts & hides.