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April 26th Primaries – Polls and Predictions
Connecticut (closed primary) 55 delegatesQuinnipiac 4/12-4/18 Clinton 51 Sanders 42 Clinton +9
Emerson 4/10-4/11 Clinton 49 Sanders 43 Clinton +6
Average 4/10-4/18 Clinton 50.0 Sanders 42.5 Clinton +7.5
Nate Silver – Clinton chances of winning - 93%
Delaware (closed primary) 21 delegates
Gravis 4/17-4/18 Clinton 45 Sanders 38 Clinton +7
No predictions
Maryland (closed primary) 95 delegates
Monmouth 4/18-4/20 Clinton 57 Sanders 32 Clinton +25
PPP (D) 4/15-4/17 Clinton 58 Sanders 33 Clinton +25
NBC 4/Marist 4/5-4/9 Clinton 58 Sanders 36 Clinton +22
Wash Post/U. of Maryland 3/30-4/3 Clinton 55 Sanders 40 Clinton +15
Average 3/30-4/20 Clinton 57.0 Sanders 35.3 Clinton +21.7
Nate Silver – Clinton chances of winning - 99%
Pennsylvania (closed primary) 189 delegates
Monmouth 4/17-4/19 Clinton 52 Sanders 39 Clinton +13
Franklin & Marshall 4/11-4/18 Clinton 58 Sanders 31 Clinton +27
FOX News 4/4-4/7 Clinton 49 Sanders 38 Clinton +11
Quinnipiac 3/30-4/4 Clinton 50 Sanders 44 Clinton +6
Harper (R) 4/2-4/3 Clinton 55 Sanders 33 Clinton +22
Average 3/30-4/19 Clinton 52.8 Sanders 37.0 Clinton +15.8
Nate Silver – Clinton chances of winning - 97%
Rhode Island (semi-closed primary) 24 delegates
Brown University 2/22-2/23 Clinton 49 Sanders 40 Clinton +9
No predictions
17 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Will be happy dancing a whole lot!
(Nevertheless, I'm not voting early... I just kind of like the ritual.) 
Last edited Sat Apr 23, 2016, 08:27 AM - Edit history (1)
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton
Sanders
Spread
Gravis 4/17 - 4/18 1026 LV 3.1 45 38 Clinton +7
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/de/delaware_democratic_presidential_primary-5805.html
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/hillary-clinton-carves-out-april-26th-leads-in-connecticut-and-delaware/24561/
..........But the two new polls in Connecticut from Emerson and Quinnipiac suggest that Hillary will win the state by seven and a half points. That’s a state where Sanders has spent time campaigning and has been hoping to win. In an interesting development, Gravis has just released the very first Delaware poll, which says that Hillary leads the state by seven points.
When there is just one late-arriving poll in a small state and no other data, it’s often a sign that the data may be less than steady, as evidenced by the other polling outlets’ collective unwillingness to even try their hand there. So Hillary Clinton’s Delaware lead would feel more certain if one or more additional outlets offer polling data there between now and Tuesday, but it does help confirm her April 26th strength.
As for Rhode Island, the fifth state to vote on April 26th, the only poll conducted was in February. It had Hillary up by nine points, but that data is too old to be considered viable. Still, every bit of polling data available across the five states suggests that she’ll win at least four out of five states, and perhaps all five, when voters line up on Tuesday. .........
