Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumPPP: HRC +10 in PA, +2 in CT & -4 in RI
RI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_RI_Dem.pdf (49-45 Sanders)
CT: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_CT_Dem_April_2016.pdf (48-46 Clinton)
PA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_PA_Dem_April_2016.pdf (51-41 Clinton)
The Democratic races in Connecticut and Rhode Island appear to be toss ups, with Clinton and Sanders each having a slight advantage in one of the states. In Connecticut Clinton has a narrow edge at 48/46, thanks in large part to a 63/24 advantage among African Americans. In Rhode Island its Sanders who has a 49/45 lead. Clintons up 54/40 with actual Democrats there, but Sanders is up 67/28 among independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary and that gives him the overall lead. Clinton has a wider lead in Pennsylvania at 51/41, although that still represents a closer race than most public polls have shown over the last few weeks.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)still_one
(92,273 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)and Delaware--but no recent polls there.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)I was with a group getting out some GOTV in Silver Spring yesterday. I'd say the reactions were about 90% positive; many honking horns at us as they passed by. Even a cop gave us a thumbs up!
Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans was there for a short while. He seems like a nice guy and looks a bit like a balding Russell Crowe!
Treant
(1,968 posts)a RI win will be spun as "the big comeback," "momentum," and "breaks Clinton's winning streak."
As the second smallest prize, neither RI nor even smaller DE really blip on my radar tomorrow. Even a stunning win for either candidate in both states doesn't move the needle very much.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Even if Bernie were to win RI & CT and HRC PA, MD and DE--it would still be a much better night for HRC than Bernie.
Treant
(1,968 posts)Sanders bias this cycle?
Mind you, I can believe PA +10 because I'm a pessimist, but I said NY +10 and look how wrong I was.
RI is, in my book, a genuine tossup. CT is a single-digit Clinton lean. MD may surprise us, but I'm going with +20 Clinton off the bat. DE doesn't matter, but Clinton +10.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)off this cycle tho.
dlwickham
(3,316 posts)I'd give Hillary 3-5 points in each poll
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)to guarantee anything more than a +1~2 delegate divide at those margins. Sanders would need to win by 15~20 points to see any real headway. However Momentum, momentum, momentum will be spouted so many times, heads might spin.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)They started with an extremely heavy pro-Clinton bias, and, after the first few states, they swung too far the other way. Who knows, maybe this is the day they get right, but they're showing numbers no one else is remotely close to.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I don't want him winning ANY of these states. Not even one because the bar is set too high for Hillary Clinton. She was supposed to have won all states, according to the Corporate Shills. So anything that upsets the narrative makes her look weak and defective. On the other hand, the bar is set so low for Sanders. He could kill a cat and the Media will refuse to paint him in any negative light.