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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 11:33 AM Apr 2016

PPP: HRC +10 in PA, +2 in CT & -4 in RI

RI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_RI_Dem.pdf (49-45 Sanders)

CT: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_CT_Dem_April_2016.pdf (48-46 Clinton)

PA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_PA_Dem_April_2016.pdf (51-41 Clinton)

The Democratic races in Connecticut and Rhode Island appear to be toss ups, with Clinton and Sanders each having a slight advantage in one of the states. In Connecticut Clinton has a narrow edge at 48/46, thanks in large part to a 63/24 advantage among African Americans. In Rhode Island it’s Sanders who has a 49/45 lead. Clinton’s up 54/40 with actual Democrats there, but Sanders is up 67/28 among independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary and that gives him the overall lead. Clinton has a wider lead in Pennsylvania at 51/41, although that still represents a closer race than most public polls have shown over the last few weeks.

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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
3. Maryland is also voting tomorrow as well & HRC has a big lead there
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:16 PM
Apr 2016

and Delaware--but no recent polls there.

NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)
11. Maryland is HILLARYLAND!
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 02:12 PM
Apr 2016

I was with a group getting out some GOTV in Silver Spring yesterday. I'd say the reactions were about 90% positive; many honking horns at us as they passed by. Even a cop gave us a thumbs up!

Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans was there for a short while. He seems like a nice guy and looks a bit like a balding Russell Crowe!

Treant

(1,968 posts)
5. Yeah, but before 11 PM tomorrow
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:30 PM
Apr 2016

a RI win will be spun as "the big comeback," "momentum," and "breaks Clinton's winning streak."

As the second smallest prize, neither RI nor even smaller DE really blip on my radar tomorrow. Even a stunning win for either candidate in both states doesn't move the needle very much.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
9. Well, MD and PA have many more delegates than RI
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 01:36 PM
Apr 2016

Even if Bernie were to win RI & CT and HRC PA, MD and DE--it would still be a much better night for HRC than Bernie.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
6. Hasn't PPP had a significant
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:44 PM
Apr 2016

Sanders bias this cycle?

Mind you, I can believe PA +10 because I'm a pessimist, but I said NY +10 and look how wrong I was.

RI is, in my book, a genuine tossup. CT is a single-digit Clinton lean. MD may surprise us, but I'm going with +20 Clinton off the bat. DE doesn't matter, but Clinton +10.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
8. PPP has been pretty fair over the years. I trust them, although they have been
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:47 PM
Apr 2016

off this cycle tho.

SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
7. RI doesn't have enough delegates...
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:44 PM
Apr 2016

to guarantee anything more than a +1~2 delegate divide at those margins. Sanders would need to win by 15~20 points to see any real headway. However Momentum, momentum, momentum will be spouted so many times, heads might spin.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
10. PPP had had a really bad cycle
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 02:03 PM
Apr 2016

They started with an extremely heavy pro-Clinton bias, and, after the first few states, they swung too far the other way. Who knows, maybe this is the day they get right, but they're showing numbers no one else is remotely close to.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
13. The Corporate Media will spin *ANY* state BS wins as a "He can win, Hillary weak" narrative.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:12 PM
Apr 2016

I don't want him winning ANY of these states. Not even one because the bar is set too high for Hillary Clinton. She was supposed to have won all states, according to the Corporate Shills. So anything that upsets the narrative makes her look weak and defective. On the other hand, the bar is set so low for Sanders. He could kill a cat and the Media will refuse to paint him in any negative light.

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